Kutiev, Ivan

The Earth’s ionosphere is a magnetoionic medium imbedded in a background neutral atmosphere, exhibiting very interesting refractive properties, including anisotropy, dispersion, and dissipation. As such, it poses a challenge for several radio systems that make use of signal transmission through all or some portion of the medium. It is important therefore to develop prediction systems able to inform the operators of such systems about the current state of the ionosphere, about the expected effects of forthcoming space weather disturbances and about support long-term planning of operations and data post-processing projects for improving modelling and mitigation techniques. The European Space Agency (ESA) in the framework of the Space Situational Awareness (SSA) Programme has supported the development of the European Ionosonde Service (EIS) that releases a set of products to characterise the bottomside and topside iono- sphereoverEurope.The Service is based on a set of prediction models driven by data from ground based ionosondes and supportive data from satellites and spacecraft. The service monitors the foF2 and the electron density profile up to the height of the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) at European middle and high latitudes and provides estimates for forth coming disturbances mainly triggered by geoeffective Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs).The model’s performance has been validated and based on these results ,it was possible to issue together with the products, quality metrics characterizing the product’s reliability. The EIS products meet the requirements of various SSA service domains, especially the transionospheric radio link and the spacecraft operations. Currently, the service is freely available to all interested users, and access is possible upon registration.

The paper describes results of the studies devoted to the solar activity impact on the Earth’s upper atmosphere and ionosphere, conducted within the frame of COST ES0803 Action. Aim: The aim of the paper is to represent results coming from different research groups in a unified form, aligning their specific topics into the general context of the subject. Methods: The methods used in the paper are based on data-driven analysis. Specific databases are used for spectrum analysis, empirical modeling, electron density profile reconstruction, and forecasting techniques. Results: Results are grouped in three sections: Medium- and long-term ionospheric response to the changes in solar and geomag- netic activity, storm-time ionospheric response to the solar and geomagnetic forcing, and modeling and forecasting techniques. Section 1 contains five subsections with results on 27-day response of low-latitude ionosphere to solar extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) radiation, response to the recurrent geomagnetic storms, long-term trends in the upper atmosphere, latitudinal dependence of total electron content on EUV changes, and statistical analysis of ionospheric behavior during prolonged period of solar activity. Section 2 contains a study of ionospheric variations induced by recurrent CIR-driven storm, a case-study of polar cap absorption due to an intense CME, and a statistical study of geographic distribution of so-called E-layer dominated ionosphere. Section 3 comprises empirical models for describing and forecasting TEC, the F-layer critical frequency foF2, and the height of maximum plasma density. A study evaluates the usefulness of effective sunspot number in specifying the ionosphere state. An original method is presented, which retrieves the basic thermospheric parameters from ionospheric sounding data.

This paper aims at providing an overview of latest advances in space weather modeling in an operational environment in Europe, including both the introduction of new models and improvements to existing codes and algorithms that address the broad range of space weather’s prediction requirements from the Sun to the Earth. For each case, we consider the model’s input data, the output parameters, products or services, its operational status, and whether it is supported by validation results, in order to build a solid basis for future developments. This work is the output of the Sub Group 1.3 ‘‘Improvement of operational models’’ of the European Cooperation in Science and Technology (COST) Action ES0803 ‘‘Developing Space Weather Products and services in Europe’’ and therefore this review focuses on the progress achieved by European research teams involved in the action.

In the frame of the European COST 296 project (Mitigation of Ionospheric Effects on Radio Systems, MIERS)in the Working Package 1.3, new ionospheric models, prediction and forecasting methods and programs as well as ionospheric imaging techniques have been developed. They include (i) topside ionosphere and meso-scale irregularity models, (ii) improved forecasting methods for real time forecasting and for prediction of foF2, M(3000)F2, MUF and TECs, including the use of new techniques such as Neurofuzzy, Nearest Neighbour, Cascade Modelling and Genetic Programming and (iii) improved dynamic high latitude ionosphere models through tomographic imaging and model validation. The success of the prediction algorithms and their improvement over existing methods has been demonstrated by comparing predictions with later real data. The collaboration between different European partners (including interchange of data) has played a significant part in the development and validation of these new prediction and forecasting methods, programs and algorithms which can be applied to a variety of practical applications leading to improved mitigation of ionosphereic and space weather effects.

The paper reviews the work done in the course of the COST 271 Action concerned with the development of tools and methods for forecasting, nowcasting and warning of ionospheric propagation conditions. Three broad categories of work are covered. First, the maintenance and enhancement of existing operational services that provide forecast or nowcast data products to end users; brief descriptions of RWC Warsaw and the STIF service are given. Second, the development of prototype or experimental services; descriptions are given of a multi-datasource system for reconstruction of electron density profiles, and a new technique using real-time IMF data to forecast ionospheric storms. The third category is the most wide-ranging, and deals with work that has presented new or improved tools or methods that future operational forecasting or nowcasting system will rely on. This work covers two areas - methods for updating models with prompt data, and improvements in modelling or our understanding of various ionospheric-magnetospheric features - and ranges over updating models of ionospheric characteristics and electron density, modelling geomagnetic storms, describing the spatial evolution of the mid-latitude trough, and validating a recently-proposed technique for deriving TEC from ionosonde observations.

A prediction method based on a simple auto-regressive model has been developed for short-term prediction of ionospheric characteristics. The method determines the auto-correlation function for the hourly values of the parameter of interest, using the time series from the previous 25 days. The resulting weighting coefficients can then be used to forecast future values of the parameter. The method has been applied to predict f0F2 up to 24 h ahead for stations Uppsala, Slough, Poitiers and Sofia. Error statistics are presented

The technique of using instantaneous maps for ionospheric storm studies is further developed. Integral parameters are introduced characterizing the main features of each map. These parameters are the net volumes of Δf0F2, ΔM(3000)F2and their gradients. The magnetic storm 1-2 March, 1982 was considered and it was found that before the storm commencement and in recovery phase the Net Gradient (NG) is directed steadily to the East, while in the main phase it turns southward. NG shows where the changes of the F-layer come from. The net volume of Δf0F2 (NF) correlates well with Dst and AE indices.

Recent progress in using the satellite data for various PRIME purposes is briefly presented. The satellite data base is already in operation and contains data of local plasma and neutral atmosphere parameters taken from several ionospheric satellites. A method of tracing the locally measured parameters along the magnetic field lines down to hmF2 is developed using a theoretical F-region code. This method is applied to receive f0F2sat needed to test monthly median and instantaneous mapping methods. In order to reduce the uncertainties arising from the unknown photoionization and recombination rates, f0F2 is calibrated at one point on the satellite orbit with a Vertical Incident (VI) f0F2 and their ratio is then assumed constant along the whole satellite track over the PRIME area. The testing procedure for monthly median maps traces the measured plasma density down to a basic height of 400 km, where individual f0F2sat values are accumulated in every time/subarea bin within the given month, then their median is calibrated with the available medians from the VI ionosonde network. From all available satellite orbits over the PRIME area, 35 of them were found to pass over two VI ionosonde stations. The second station in these orbits was used to check the calculated f0F2sat with the measured VI f0F2. The standard deviation was found to be only 0.15 MHz.