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Liukis, Maria
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Liukis, Maria
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- PublicationOpen AccessCollaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability(2007-05-31)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Jordan, T. H.; SCEC Center, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA ;Gerstenberger, M.; GNS Science Lower Hutt, New Zealand ;Liukis, M.; SCEC Center, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA ;Maechling, P. J.; SCEC Center, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA ;Schorlemmer, D.; SCEC Center, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA ;Wiemer, S.; ETH, Zurich, Switzerland ;Zechar, J. D.; SCEC Center, Department of Earth Sciences, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA, USA ;CSEP Collaboration; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Cocco, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Console, R.; INGV, Rome, Italy ;Wiemer, S.; ETH, Zurich, Switzerland; ; Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability595 356 - PublicationRestrictedThe Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities(2018)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ;The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP’s goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake predictability, advance forecasting model development, test key scientific hypotheses and their predictive power, and improve seismic hazard assessments. Since its inception in California in 2007, the global CSEP collaboration has been conducting forecast experiments in a variety of tectonic settings and at a global scale and now operates four testing centers on four continents to automatically and objectively evaluate models against prospective data. These experiments have provided a multitude of results that are informing operational earthquake forecasting systems and seismic hazard models, and they have provided new and, sometimes, surprising insights into the predictability of earthquakes and spurned model improvements. CSEP has also conducted pilot studies to evaluate ground-motion and hazard models. Here, we report on selected achievements from a decade of CSEP, and we present our priorities for future activities.92 2 - PublicationOpen AccessHighlights from the First Ten Years of the New Zealand Earthquake Forecast Testing CenterThe Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms. CSEP’s goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake predictability, advance forecasting model development, test key scientific hypotheses and their predictive power, and improve seismic hazard assessments. Since its inception in California in 2007, the global CSEP collaboration has been conducting forecast experiments in a variety of tectonic settings and at a global scale and now operates four testing centers on four continents to automatically and objectively evaluate models against prospective data. These experiments have provided a multitude of results that are informing operational earthquake forecasting systems and seismic hazard models, and they have provided new and, sometimes, surprising insights into the predictability of earthquakes and spurned model improvements. CSEP has also conducted pilot studies to evaluate ground-motion and hazard models. Here, we report on selected achievements from a decadeof CSEP, and we present our priorities for future activities.
66 167 - PublicationRestrictedThe Forecasting Skill of Physics‐Based Seismicity Models during the 2010–2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, Earthquake Sequence(2018)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;The static coulomb stress hypothesis is a widely known physical mechanism for earthquake triggering and thus a prime candidate for physics-based operational earthquake forecasting (OEF). However, the forecast skill of coulomb-based seismicity models remains controversial, especially compared with empirical statistical models. A previous evaluation by the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability (CSEP) concluded that a suite of coulomb-based seismicity models were less informative than empirical models during the aftershock sequence of the 1992 Mw 7.3 Landers, California, earthquake. Recently, a new generation of coulomb-based and coulomb/statistical hybrid models were developed that account better for uncertainties and secondary stress sources. Here, we report on the performance of this new suite of models compared with empirical epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS) models during the 2010–2012 Canterbury, New Zealand, earthquake sequence. Comprising the 2010 M 7.1 Darfield earthquake and three subsequent M ≥ 5:9 shocks (including the February 2011 Christchurch earthquake), this sequence provides a wealth of data (394 M ≥ 3:95 shocks). We assessed models over multiple forecast horizons (1 day, 1 month, and 1 yr, updated after M ≥ 5:9 shocks). The results demonstrate substantial improvements in the coulomb-based models. Purely physics-based models have a performance comparable to the ETAS model, and the two coulomb/statistical hybrids perform better or similar to the corresponding statistical model. On the other hand, an ETAS model with anisotropic (fault-based) aftershock zones is just as informative. These results provide encouraging evidence for the predictive power of coulomb-based models. To assist with model development, we identify discrepancies between forecasts and observations.65 5