The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability: Achievements and Priorities

The Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake Predictability
(CSEP) is a global cyberinfrastructure for prospective evaluations
of earthquake forecast models and prediction algorithms.
CSEP’s goals are to improve our understanding of earthquake
predictability, advance forecasting model development, test key
scientific hypotheses and their predictive power, and improve
seismic hazard assessments. Since its inception in California
in 2007, the global CSEP collaboration has been conducting
forecast experiments in a variety of tectonic settings and at a
global scale and now operates four testing centers on four continents
to automatically and objectively evaluate models against
prospective data. These experiments have provided a multitude
of results that are informing operational earthquake forecasting
systems and seismic hazard models, and they have provided new
and, sometimes, surprising insights into the predictability of
earthquakes and spurned model improvements. CSEP has also
conducted pilot studies to evaluate ground-motion and hazard
models. Here, we report on selected achievements from a decade
of CSEP, and we present our priorities for future activities.