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Tamaro, Alberto
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- PublicationOpen AccessEarthquake Rupture Forecasts for the MPS19 Seismic Hazard Model of Italy(2021)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; In recent years, new approaches for developing earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) have been proposed to be used as an input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Zone- based approaches with seismicity rates derived from earthquake catalogs are commonly used in many countries as the standard for national seismic hazard models. In Italy, a single zone- based ERF is currently the basis for the official seismic hazard model. In this contribution, we present eleven new ERFs, including five zone-based, two smoothed seismicity-based, two fault- based, and two geodetic-based, used for a new PSH model in Italy. The ERFs were tested against observed seismicity and were subject to an elicitation procedure by a panel of PSHA experts to verify the scientific robustness and consistency of the forecasts with respect to the observations. Tests and elicitation were finalized to weight the ERFs. The results show a good response to the new inputs to observed seismicity in the last few centuries. The entire approach was a first attempt to build a community-based set of ERFs for an Italian PSHA model. The project involved a large number of seismic hazard practitioners, with their knowledge and experience, and the development of different models to capture and explore a large range of epistemic uncertainties in building ERFs, and represents an important step forward for the new national seismic hazard model.3426 95 - PublicationOpen AccessGas fields and large shallow seismogenic reverse faults are anticorrelated(2022-02-03)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; We investigated the spatial relationships among 18 known seismogenic faults and 1651 wells drilled for gas exploitation in the main hydrocarbon province of northern-central Italy, a unique dataset worldwide. We adopted a GIS approach and a robust statistical technique, and found a significant anticorrelation between the location of productive wells and of the considered seismogenic faults, which are often overlain or encircled by unproductive wells. Our observations suggest that (a) earthquake ruptures encompassing much of the upper crust may cause gas to be lost to the atmosphere over geological time, and that (b) reservoirs underlain by smaller or aseismic faults are more likely to be intact. These findings, which are of inherently global relevance, have crucial implications for future hydrocarbon exploitation, for assessing the seismic-aseismic behaviour of large reverse faults, and for the public acceptance of underground energy and CO2 storage facilities-a pillar of future low carbon energy systems-in tectonically active areas.77 24 - PublicationRestrictedCharacterization of the expected seismic damage for a critical infrastructure: the case of the oil pipeline in Friuli Venezia Giulia (NE Italy)Seismic codes using the performance-based approach for seismic design of critical and important structures generally refer to seismic hazard which takes into account a lower exceedance probability than that used for ordinary buildings. In the present study, the seismic hazard for an oil pipeline, located in the Friuli Venezia Giulia region (NE Italy), has been calculated in terms of PGA and PGV with a 2475-year return period, and compared with estimates calculated with the standard 475-year return period used for ordinary buildings. The results, referring to three soil types (rock, stiff soil, and soft soil), have been combined through GIS technology in a single map (soil seismic hazard map) on the basis of the local lithological characterization. The major earthquakes considered in the study have been associated with the linear sources found in the database of Italian seismic sources, considering the characteristic earthquake model. The regional seismogenic zonation has been added to the linear sources in order to consider minor seismicity as described by the Gutenberg–Richter model. Quaternary faults in the broader Trieste area, long enough to justify, at least, a characteristic magnitude of 6, have been added in the source model to take into account unlikely but possible unknown sources. The Transalpine Oil Pipeline, which connects Trieste (Italy) to Ingolstadt (Germany), is the crude-oil dis- tribution system considered in the present study. It consists of a storage tank, compressor stations, and buried pipeline. For the characterization of the expected damage to the infrastructure in case of an earthquake, we have used underground pipeline seismic vul- nerability curves that relate a performance indicator, such as the reparation rate (number of ruptures per kilometre), with a representative ground motion parameter (e.g., PGA or PGV). In this study, we have considered as performance indicator the consequences of a rupture in the pipeline caused by a seismic event.
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