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Dal Cin, Michela
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Dal Cin, Michela
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- PublicationOpen AccessSeismogenic zonation as a branch of the logic tree for the new Italian seismic hazard map - MPS16: a preliminary outline(2017-12-15)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;The zonation presented in this study has been developed with the aim of applying it as a branch of the logic tree that will be used for the new Italian seismic hazard map, presently in preparation according to the approach of seismotectonic probabilism. With respect to the zonation used for the present official seismic hazard map of Italy, the zonation proposed here considers narrower sources and is based on new and updated seismological data. In particular, some new seismogenic zones are proposed here, introducing areas that were not considered seismogenic until now (e.g., the narrow sources characterised by the presence of transform faults which are almost normal to the trend of the northern Apennines). The preliminary seismic hazard estimates produced with this new zonation aim to identify possible problems that the zonation introduces in the seismicity characterization of the seismogenic zones. As the present seismic hazard assessment was computed by considering a different attenuation model with respect to the one applied for the previous national seismic hazard maps, a re-elaboration of the most recent map referring to Italy has been developed: the comparison of the two maps is a good indicator of the areas where additional seismological investigation is needed to support the zonation presented here. In particular, some zones are not adequately documented with regard to seismicity and a different computation of the seismicity rates is suggested.172 88 - PublicationOpen AccessEarthquake Rupture Forecasts for the MPS19 Seismic Hazard Model of Italy(2021)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; In recent years, new approaches for developing earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) have been proposed to be used as an input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Zone- based approaches with seismicity rates derived from earthquake catalogs are commonly used in many countries as the standard for national seismic hazard models. In Italy, a single zone- based ERF is currently the basis for the official seismic hazard model. In this contribution, we present eleven new ERFs, including five zone-based, two smoothed seismicity-based, two fault- based, and two geodetic-based, used for a new PSH model in Italy. The ERFs were tested against observed seismicity and were subject to an elicitation procedure by a panel of PSHA experts to verify the scientific robustness and consistency of the forecasts with respect to the observations. Tests and elicitation were finalized to weight the ERFs. The results show a good response to the new inputs to observed seismicity in the last few centuries. The entire approach was a first attempt to build a community-based set of ERFs for an Italian PSHA model. The project involved a large number of seismic hazard practitioners, with their knowledge and experience, and the development of different models to capture and explore a large range of epistemic uncertainties in building ERFs, and represents an important step forward for the new national seismic hazard model.3426 95