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Bucchignani, Edoardo
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- PublicationRestrictedPatterns in Climate-Related Parameters as Proxy for Rainfall Deficiency and Aridity: Application to Burkina FasoThis work is aimed to propose a methodology for the identification of areas for which extreme climatological conditions may intensify aridity processes and rainfall deficiency. The proposed procedure, which is based on the analysis of climate projections derived from high-resolution regional simulations, is composed of three main elements. First, extreme temperature, extreme precipitation, and extreme dry periods (in terms of consecutive dry days) are modeled using extreme value theory. Second, an aridity index is used as a proxy of long-term processes leading to aridity. Third, clustering techniques are used to group zones with similar climatic parameters. In this way, areas with the more extreme climate conditions are identified. Possible effects due to selected climate-change scenarios are considered by analyzing possible nonstationary conditions in extreme events and by performing calculations in both a historical period and a projection period (where different scenarios are considered). An application of the proposed procedure is implemented in an area around Ouagadougou, Burkina Faso. From the analyses, it emerged that the eastern part of the case study area will experience both large rainfall deficit and the highest extreme temperatures. Those two aspects, combined with a potential water demand increase (due to the increasing of number of inhabitants), may favor the intensification of the aridity processes.
214 3 - PublicationOpen AccessExtreme events in high resolution CMCC regional and global climate models(2011-09)
; ; ; ; ; ;Scoccimarro, Enrico; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Gualdi, Silvio; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Sanna, Antonella; CMCC ;Bucchignani, Edoardo; CMCC ;Montesarchio, Myriam; ; ; ; Within the framework of the FUME EU project a set of climate projections covering the period 1970-2100 has been performed using a global General Circulation model (CMCC-Med) and a Regional Climate model (CMCC-CLM). Simulation outputs have been post-processed in order to investigate extreme events based on three principal weather parameters: precipitation, surface temperature and 10 metre wind. Using these parameters, several indexes for extreme event characterizations have been computed on daily time basis over 4 seasons. Trends and variability have been computed and examined both for the global and regional model.132 221 - PublicationOpen AccessAnalysis of non-stationary climate-related extreme events considering climate change scenarios: an application for multi-hazard assessment in the Dar es Salaam region, Tanzania(2015-01)
; ; ; ; ; ; ;Garcia-Aristizabal, A.; Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA), Naples, Italy ;Bucchignani, E.; Centro Euro-Mediterraneao sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)-CIRA, Capua, Italy ;Palazzi, E.; Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC)-CNR, Turin, Italy ;D’Onofrio, D.; Department of Physics, Universita di Torino, Turin, Italy ;Gasparini, P.; Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA), Naples, Italy ;Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia; ; ; ; ; In this paper we have put forward a Bayesian framework for the analysis and testing of possible non-stationarities in extreme events. We use the extreme value theory to model temperature and precipitation data in the Dar es Salaam region, Tanzania. Temporal trends are modeled writing the location parameter of the generalized extreme value distribution in terms of deterministic functions of explanatory covariates. The analyses are performed using synthetic time series derived from a Regional Climate Model. The simulations, performed in an area around the Dar es Salaam city, Tanzania, take into account two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our main interest is to analyze extremes with high spatial and temporal resolution and to pursue this requirement we have adopted an individual grid box analysis approach. The approach presented in this paper is composed of the following key elements: (1) an advanced Bayesian method for the estimation of model parameters, (2) a rigorous procedure for model selection, and (3) uncertainty assessment and propagation. The results of our analyses are intended to be used for quantitative hazard and risk assessment and are presented in terms of hazard curves and probabilistic hazard maps. In the case study we found that for both the temperature and precipitation data, a linear trend in the location parameter was the only model performing better than the stationary one in the areas where evidence against the stationary model exists.525 1042 - PublicationOpen AccessEXTREME EVENTS AS REPRESENTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION CMCC CLIMATE MODELS AT GLOBAL AND REGIONAL (Euro-Mediterranean) SCALE(2011-10)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Sanna, Antonella; CMCC ;Scoccimarro, Enrico; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Gualdi, Silvio; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Bellucci, Alessio; CMCC ;Montesarchio, Myriam; CMCC ;Bucchignani, Edoardo; CMCC ;Navarra, Antonio; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; ; ; ; ; One of the conclusions of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report is that there are evidences that climate change affects the frequency, intensity, and length of many extreme events, such as floods, droughts, storms and extreme temperatures. At the same time, gradual and non-linear changes in ecosystems and natural resources further increase the consequences of extreme weather events. Climate extreme events are hard to study and even harder to predict because they are, by definition, rare and obey different statistical laws than averages. The availability of climate simulations (historical + sresA1B scenario) covering the period 1970-2100 from a global Coupled General Circulation Model (70 Km of atmospheric spatial resolution) and a Regional Climate Model (14 Km of spatial resolution) give the possibility to investigate three principal weather fields involved in extreme events conditions such as surface temperature, precipitation and wind velocity. For each of them the computation of several indicators has been done, at global and regional scale, on daily time basis over 4 seasons defined as December-February (DJF), March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), September-November (SON). These indicators characterize each model grid point over the relative spatial model domain (global/regional). For each index we computed trend maps considering only grid points where the detected trend is statistically significant. Available trend maps are defined over five periods of 30 years: 1971-2000 1981-2010, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100, and two periods of 65 years: 1971-2035 and 2036-2100.346 98