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Gasparini, Paolo
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- PublicationOpen AccessA probabilistic tool for multi-hazard risk analysis using a bow-tie approach: application to environmental risk assessments for geo-resource development projectsIn this paper, we present a methodology and a computational tool for performing environmental risk assessments for geo-resource development projects. The main scope is to implement a quantitative model for performing highly specialised multi-hazard risk assessments in which risk pathway scenarios are structured using a bow-tie approach, which implies the integrated analysis of fault trees and event trees. Such a model needs to be defined in the interface between a natural/built/social environment and a geo-resource development activity perturbing it. The methodology presented in this paper is suitable for performing dynamic environmental risk assessments using state-of-the-art knowledge and is characterised by: (1) the bow-tie structure coupled with a wide range of probabilistic models flexible enough to consider different typologies of phenomena; (2) the Bayesian implementation for data assimilation; (3) the handling and propagation of modelling uncertainties; and (4) the possibility of integrating data derived form integrated assessment modelling. Beyond the stochastic models usually considered for reliability analyses, we discuss the integration of physical reliability models particularly relevant for considering the effects of external hazards and/or the interactions between industrial activities and the response of the environment in which such activities are performed. The performance of the proposed methodology is illustrated using a case study focused on the assessment of groundwater pollution scenarios associated with the management of flowback fluids after hydraulically fracturing a geologic formation. The results of the multi-hazard risk assessment are summarised using a risk matrix in which the quantitative assessments (likelihood and consequences) of the different risk pathway scenarios considered in the analysis can be compared. Finally, we introduce an open-access, web-based, service called MERGER, which constitutes a functional tool able to quantitatively evaluate risk scenarios using a bow-tie approach.
279 252 - PublicationRestrictedMulti-hazard risk pathway scenarios associated with unconventional gas development: Identification and challenges for their assessment(ScienceDirect, 2017)
; ; ; ; ; ; ;In this paper we summarize a number of risk pathway scenarios that are often claimed in literature as of priority for risk analyses in unconventional gas development. The resulting scenarios are structured in diagrams representing causal relationships between events. We argue that science is called to fill gaps regarding the main processes characterizing the involved events and defining the conditions under which their occurrence may be enhanced or inhibited. In this way, these scenarios can be more objectively parameterized, making their quantitative assessment a more feasible task and opening the way for the formulation of appropriate risk mitigation strategies.58 2 - PublicationRestrictedThe ARGO Project: assessing NA-TECH risks on offshore oil platforms(2017)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Analysis of natural and anthRopoGenic risks on Offshore platforms (ARGO) is a 3-years project, funded by the Italian Ministry of Economic Development. The project, coordinated by AMRA, a permanent Research Centre for the development of innovative technologies applied to environmental problems, aims at providing technical-support for the analysis of natural and anthropogenic risks on offshore oil-platforms. ARGO has developed methodologies for the probabilistic analysis of industrial accidents triggered by natural events (NA-TECH) on offshore platforms. The final analysis of the ARGO Project suggest a constant monitoring of exploitation activity, fluids re-injection and storage using high technology networks.192 2 - PublicationRestrictedMulti-risk Assessment as a Tool for Decision-MakingThe multi-risk concept refers to a complex variety of combinations of risk (i.e. various combinations of hazards and various combinations of vulnerabilities). For this reason, it requires a review of existing concepts of risk, hazard, exposure and vulnerability, within a multi-risk perspective. The main purpose of the multi-risk assessment is to harmonise the methodologies employed and the results obtained for different risk sources, taking into account possible risk interactions. Given the complexity of processes that the multi-risk problem poses, the framework presented here entails three levels of analysis: the first-level analysis, in which the evaluation of the potential physical damages is performed; the second-level analysis, in which tangible indirect losses are assessed considering the socio-economic context; and the third-level analysis, where a set of specific social context conditions is considered in an indicator-based approach. One of the most challenging elements of the multi-risk assessment is the translation of the quantitative output into useful information for decision-making under uncertainty. This is a critical step to consolidate the importance of the multi-risk analyses and to define their ultimate importance and usefulness for the resolution of critical societal problems. To illustrate the general methodology presented, an example application has been developed in Dar es Salaam (Tanzania), which is one of the case study cities in the CLUVA project.
38 1 - PublicationOpen AccessAnalysis of non-stationary climate-related extreme events considering climate change scenarios: an application for multi-hazard assessment in the Dar es Salaam region, Tanzania(2015-01)
; ; ; ; ; ; ;Garcia-Aristizabal, A.; Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA), Naples, Italy ;Bucchignani, E.; Centro Euro-Mediterraneao sui Cambiamenti Climatici (CMCC)-CIRA, Capua, Italy ;Palazzi, E.; Institute of Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (ISAC)-CNR, Turin, Italy ;D’Onofrio, D.; Department of Physics, Universita di Torino, Turin, Italy ;Gasparini, P.; Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA), Naples, Italy ;Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia; ; ; ; ; In this paper we have put forward a Bayesian framework for the analysis and testing of possible non-stationarities in extreme events. We use the extreme value theory to model temperature and precipitation data in the Dar es Salaam region, Tanzania. Temporal trends are modeled writing the location parameter of the generalized extreme value distribution in terms of deterministic functions of explanatory covariates. The analyses are performed using synthetic time series derived from a Regional Climate Model. The simulations, performed in an area around the Dar es Salaam city, Tanzania, take into account two Representative Concentration Pathways scenarios from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Our main interest is to analyze extremes with high spatial and temporal resolution and to pursue this requirement we have adopted an individual grid box analysis approach. The approach presented in this paper is composed of the following key elements: (1) an advanced Bayesian method for the estimation of model parameters, (2) a rigorous procedure for model selection, and (3) uncertainty assessment and propagation. The results of our analyses are intended to be used for quantitative hazard and risk assessment and are presented in terms of hazard curves and probabilistic hazard maps. In the case study we found that for both the temperature and precipitation data, a linear trend in the location parameter was the only model performing better than the stationary one in the areas where evidence against the stationary model exists.525 1048 - PublicationRestrictedSeismic Risk Assessment, Cascading EffectsDomino effects; Short-term hazard and risk assessment; Time-dependent risk; Triggering effects
47 2 - PublicationRestrictedBasic principles of multi-risk assessment: a case study in Italy(2012-06)
; ; ; ; ; ;Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Garcia-Aristizabal, A.; Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA) ;Gasparini, P.; Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA) ;Mastellone, M. L.; Dipartimento di Scienze Ambientali, Seconda Universita' di Napoli ;Di Ruocco, A.; Center for the Analysis and Monitoring of Environmental Risk (AMRA); ; ; ; The assessment of the impact of different catastrophic events in a given area requires innovative approaches that allow risks comparison and that account for all the possible risk interactions. In the common practice, the risk evaluation related to different sources is generally done through independent analyses, adopting disparate procedures and time–space resolutions. Such a strategy of risks evaluation has some evident major drawbacks as, for example, it is difficult (if not impossible) to compare the risk of different origins, and the implicit assumption of independence of the risk sources leads to neglect possible interactions among threats and/or cascade effects. The latter may amplify the overall risk, and potentially the multi-risk index could be higher than the simple aggre- gation of single-risk indexes calculated considering each source as independent from the others. In this paper, we put forward some basic principles for multi-risk assessment, and we consider a real application to Casalnuovo municipality (Southern Italy), in which we face the problem to make different hazards comparable, and we highlight when and how possible interactions among different threats may become important.385 38 - PublicationOpen AccessTsunami risk assessments in Messina, Sicily – Italy(2012)
; ; ; ; ; ;Grezio, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Gasparini, P.; Università di Napoli - Federico II ;Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Patera, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Tinti, S.; Università di Bologna; ; ; ; We present a first detailed tsunami risk assessment for the city of Messina where one of the most destructive tsunami inundations of the last centuries occurred in 1908. In the tsunami hazard evaluation, probabilities are calculated through a new general modular Bayesian tool for Probabil- ity Tsunami Hazard Assessment. The estimation of losses of persons and buildings takes into account data collected directly or supplied by: (i) the Italian National Institute of Statistics that provides information on the population, on buildings and on many relevant social aspects; (ii) the Italian National Territory Agency that provides updated economic values of the buildings on the basis of their typology (res- idential, commercial, industrial) and location (streets); and (iii) the Train and Port Authorities. For human beings, a fac- tor of time exposition is introduced and calculated in terms of hours per day in different places (private and public) and in terms of seasons, considering that some factors like the number of tourists can vary by one order of magnitude from January to August. Since the tsunami risk is a function of the run-up levels along the coast, a variable tsunami risk zone is defined as the area along the Messina coast where tsunami inundations may occur.316 590 - PublicationRestrictedProbabilistic Tsunami Hazard Assessment for Messina Strait Area (Sicily, Italy)(2012)
; ; ; ; ; ; ;Grezio, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Sandri, L.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Argnani, A.; CNR-Bologna ;Gasparini, P.; Università di Napoli- Federico II ;Selva, J.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; ; ; ; The general modular Bayesian procedure is applied to provide a probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment (PTHA) for the Messina Strait Area (MSA), Italy. This is the first study in an Italian area where the potential tsunamigenic events caused by both submarine seismic sources (SSSs) and submarine mass failures (SMFs) are examined in a probabilistic assessment. The SSSs are localized on active faults in MSA as indicated by the instrumental data of the catalogue of the Italian seismicity; the SMFs are spatially identified using their propensity to failure in the Ionian and Tyrrhenian Seas on the basis of mean slope and mean depth, and using marine geology background knowledge. In both cases the associated probability of occurrence is provided. The run-ups were calculated at key sites that are main cities and/or important sites along the Eastern Sicily and the Southern Calabria coasts where tsunami events were recorded in the past. The posterior probability distribution combines the prior probability and the likelihood calculated in the MSA. The prior probability is based on the physical model of the tsunami process, and the likelihood is based on the historical data collected by the historical catalogues, background knowledge, and marine geological information. The posterior SSSs and SMFs tsunami probabilities are comparable and are combined to produce a final probability for a full PTHA in MSA.283 24 - PublicationOpen AccessOperational Earthquake Forecasting: State of Knowledge and Guidelines for Implementation.(2011)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Jordan, T.; University of Southern California, Los Angeles, USA ;Chen, Y.-T.; Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China ;Gasparini, P.; University of Napoli "Federico II", Napoli, Italy ;Madariaga, R.; Ecole Normale Superieure, Paris, France ;Main, I.; University of Edinburgh, United Kingdom ;Marzocchi, W.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Roma1, Roma, Italia ;Papadopoulos, G.; National Observatory of Athens, Athens, Greece ;Yamaoka, K.; Nagoya University, Nagoya, Japan ;Zschau, J.; GFZ, German Research Centers for Geosciences, Potsdam, Germany; ; ; ; ;; ; ; Following the 2009 L'Aquila earthquake, the Dipartimento della Protezione Civile Italiana (DPC), appointed an International Commission on Earthquake Forecasting for Civil Protection (ICEF) to report on the current state of knowledge of short-term prediction and forecasting of tectonic earthquakes and indicate guidelines for utilization of possible forerunners of large earthquakes to drive civil protection actions, including the use of probabilistic seismic hazard analysis in the wake of a large earthquake. The ICEF reviewed research on earthquake prediction and forecasting, drawing from developments in seismically active regions worldwide. A prediction is defined as a deterministic statement that a future earthquake will or will not occur in a particular geographic region, time window, and magnitude range, whereas a forecast gives a probability (greater than zero but less than one) that such an event will occur. Earthquake predictability, the degree to which the future occurrence of earthquakes can be determined from the observable behavior of earthquake systems, is poorly understood. This lack of understanding is reflected in the inability to reliably predict large earthquakes in seismically active regions on short time scales. Most proposed prediction methods rely on the concept of a diagnostic precursor; i.e., some kind of signal observable before earthquakes that indicates with high probability the location, time, and magnitude of an impending event. Precursor methods reviewed here include changes in strain rates, seismic wave speeds, and electrical conductivity; variations of radon concentrations in groundwater, soil, and air; fluctuations in groundwater levels; electromagnetic variations near and above Earth's surface; thermal anomalies; anomalous animal behavior; and seismicity patterns. The search for diagnostic precursors has not yet produced a successful short-term prediction scheme. Therefore, this report focuses on operational earthquake forecasting as the principle means for gathering and disseminating authoritative information about time-dependent seismic hazards to help communities prepare for potentially destructive earthquakes. On short time scales of days and weeks, earthquake sequences show clustering in space and time, as indicated by the aftershocks triggered by large events. Statistical descriptions of clustering explain many features observed in seismicity catalogs, and they can be used to construct forecasts that indicate how earthquake probabilities change over the short term. Properly applied, short-term forecasts have operational utility; for example, in anticipating aftershocks that follow large earthquakes. Although the value of long-term forecasts for ensuring seismic safety is clear, the interpretation of short-term forecasts is problematic, because earthquake probabilities may vary over orders of magnitude but typically remain low in an absolute sense (< 1% per day). Translating such low-probability forecasts into effective decision-making is a difficult challenge. Reports on the current utilization operational forecasting in earthquake risk management were compiled for six countries with high seismic risk: China, Greece, Italy, Japan, Russia, United States. Long-term models are currently the most important forecasting tools for civil protection against earthquake damage, because they guide earthquake safety provisions of building codes, performance-based seismic design, and other risk-reducing engineering practices, such as retrofitting to correct design flaws in older buildings. Short-term forecasting of aftershocks is practiced by several countries among those surveyed, but operational earthquake forecasting has not been fully implemented (i.e., regularly updated and on a national scale) in any of them. Based on the experience accumulated in seismically active regions, the ICEF has provided to DPC a set of recommendations on the utilization of operational forecasting in Italy, which may also be useful in other countries. The public should be provided with open sources of information about the short-term probabilities of future earthquakes that are authoritative, scientific, consistent, and timely. Advisories should be based on operationally qualified, regularly updated seismicity forecasting systems that have been rigorously reviewed and updated by experts in the creation, delivery, and utility of earthquake information. The quality of all operational models should be evaluated for reliability and skill by retrospective testing, and they should be under continuous prospective testing against established long-term forecasts and alternative time-dependent models. Alert procedures should be standardized to facilitate decisions at different levels of government and among the public. Earthquake probability thresholds should be established to guide alert levels based on objective analysis of costs and benefits, as well as the less tangible aspects of value-of-information, such as gains in psychological preparedness and resilience. The principles of effective public communication established by social science research should be applied to the delivery of seismic hazard information.2445 4478
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