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HIGP/SOEST, University of Hawai’i, Honolulu, HI, USA
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- PublicationRestrictedConclusion: recommendations and findings of the RED SEED working group(The Geological Society of London, 2016)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Harris, A. J. L. ;Carn, S. ;Dehn, J. ;Del Negro, C.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia ;Gudmundsson, M. T. ;Cordonnier, B. ;Barnie, T. ;Chahi, E. ;Calvari, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia ;Catry, T. ;De Groeve, T. ;Coppola, D. ;Davies, A. ;Favalli, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia ;Ferrucci, F. ;Fujita, E. ;Ganci, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia ;Garel, F. ;Huet, P. ;Kauahikaua, J. ;Kelfoun, K. ;Lombardo, V.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione CNT, Roma, Italia ;Macedonio, G.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione OV, Napoli, Italia ;Pacheco, J. ;Patrick, M. ;Pergola, N. ;Ramsey, M. ;Rongo, R. ;Sahy, F. ;Smith, K. ;Tarquini, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia ;Thordarson, T. ;Villeneuve, N. ;Webley, P. ;Wright, R. ;Zaksek, K. ; ; ;; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ;; ; ;; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ;Harris, A. J. L. ;De Groeve, T. ;Garel, F.Carn, S. A.RED SEED stands for Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters, and combines stakeholders from the remote sensing, modelling and response communities with experience in tracking volcanic effusive events. The group first met during a three day-long workshop held in Clermont Ferrand (France) between 28 and 30 May 2013. During each day, presentations were given reviewing the state of the art in terms of (a) volcano hot spot detection and parameterization, (b) operational satellite-based hot spot detection systems, (c) lava flow modelling and (d) response protocols during effusive crises. At the end of each pre- sentation set, the four groups retreated to discuss and report on requirements for a truly integrated and operational response that satisfactorily combines remote sensors, modellers and responders during an effusive crisis. The results of collating the final reports, and follow-up discussions that have been on-going since the workshop, are given here. We can reduce our discussions to four main findings. (1) Hot spot detection tools are operational and capable of providing effusive erup- tion onset notice within 15 min. (2) Spectral radiance metrics can also be provided with high degrees of confidence. However, if we are to achieve a truly global system, more local receiving stations need to be installed with hot spot detection and data processing modules running on-site and in real time. (3) Models are operational, but need real-time input of reliable time-averaged discharge rate data and regular updates of digital elevation models if they are to be effective; the latter can be provided by the radar/photogrammetry community. (4) Information needs to be provided in an agreed and standard format following an ensemble approach and using models that have been validated and recognized as trustworthy by the responding authorities. All of this requires a sophisticated and centralized data collection, distribution and reporting hub that is based on a philosophy of joint ownership and mutual trust. While the next chapter carries out an exercise to explore the viability of the last point, the detailed recommendations behind these findings are detailed here.308 47 - PublicationRestrictedHazard assessment at Mount Etna using a hybrid lava flow inundation model and satellite-based land classification(2011-09)
; ; ; ; ;Harris, A.; Laboratoire Magmas et Volcans, Clermont Université, Université Blaise Pascal, Clermont-Ferrand, France ;Favalli, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Pisa, Pisa, Italia ;Wright, R.; HIGP/SOEST, University of Hawai’i, Honolulu, HI, USA ;Garbeil, H.; HIGP/SOEST, University of Hawai’i, Honolulu, HI, USA; ; ; Using a lava flow emplacement model and a satellite-based land cover classification, we produce a map to allow assessment of the type and quantity of natural, agricultural and urban land cover at risk from lava flow invasion. The first step is to produce lava effusion rate contours, i.e., lines linking distances down a volcano’s flank that a lava flow will likely extend if fed at a given effusion rate from a predetermined vent zone. This involves first identifying a vent mask and then running a downhill flow path model from the edge of every pixel around the vent mask perimeter to the edge of the DEM. To do this, we run a stochastic model whereby the flow path is projected 1,000 times from every pixel around the vent mask perimeter with random noise being added to the DEM with each run so that a slightly different flow path is generated with each run. The FLOWGO lava flow model is then run down each path, at a series of effusion rates, to determine likely run-out distance for channel-fed flow extending down each path. These results are used to plot effusion rate contours. Finally, effusion rate contours are projected onto a land classification map (produced from an ASTER image of Etna) to assess the type and amount of each land cover class falling within each contour. The resulting maps are designed to provide a quick look-up capability to assess the type of land at risk from lava extending from any location at a range of likely effusion rates. For our first (2,000 m) vent zone case used for Etna, we find a total of area of ~680 km2 is at risk from flows fed at 40 m3 s−1, of which ~6 km2 is urban, ~150 km2 is agriculture and ~270 km2 is grass/woodland. The model can also be run for specific cases, where we find that Etna’s 1669 vent location, if active today, would likely inundate almost 11 km2 of urban land, as well as 15.6 km2 of agricultural land, including 9.5 km2 of olive groves and 5.2 km2 of vineyards and fruit/nut orchards.192 29