Ferrucci, Fabrizio

Spaceborne detection and measurements of high-temperature thermal anomalies enable monitoring and forecasts of lava flow propagation. The accuracy of such thermal estimates relies on the knowledge of input parameters, such as emissivity, which notably affects computation of temperature, radiant heat flux, and subsequent analyses (e.g., effusion rate and lava flow distance to run) that rely on the accuracy of observations. To address the deficit of field and laboratory-based emissivity data for inverse and forward modelling, we measured the emissivity of ‘a’a lava samples from the 2001 Mt. Etna eruption, over the wide range of temperatures (773 to 1373 K) and wavelengths (2.17 to 21.0 µm). The results show that emissivity is not only wavelength dependent, but it also increases non-linearly with cooling, revealing considerably lower values than those typically assumed for basalts. This new evidence showed the largest and smallest increase in average emissivity during cooling in the MIR and TIR regions (~30% and ~8% respectively), whereas the shorter wavelengths of the SWIR region showed a moderate increase (~15%). These results applied to spaceborne data confirm that the variable emissivity-derived radiant heat flux is greater than the constant emissivity assumption. For the differences between the radiant heat flux in the case of variable and constant emissivity, we found the median value is 0.06, whereas the 25th and the 75th percentiles are 0.014 and 0.161, respectively. This new evidence has significant impacts on the modelling of lava flow simulations, causing a dissimilarity between the two emissivity approaches of ~16% in the final area and ~7% in the maximum thickness. The multicomponent emissivity input provides means for ‘best practice’ scenario when accurate data required. The novel approach developed here can be used to test an improved version of existing multi-platform, multi-payload volcano monitoring systems.

We aim here to improve the understanding of the relationship between emissivity of the lava and temperature by carrying out a multi-stage experiment for the 2017 Mt Etna (Italy) eruption. We combine laboratory, spaceborne, and numerical modelling data, to quantify the emissivity–temperature relationship. Our laboratory-based Fourier-transform infrared (FTIR) results indicate that emissivity and temperature are inversely correlated, which supports the argument that emissivity of molten material is significantly lower than that of the same material in its solid state. Our forward-modelling tests using MAGFLOW Cellular Automata suggest that a 35% emissivity variation (0.95 to 0.60) can produce up to 46% overestimation (for constant emissivity 0.60) in simulated/forecasted lava flow lengths (compared to actual observed). In comparison, our simulation using a ‘two-component’ emissivity approach (i.e., di erent emissivity values for melt and cooled lava) and constant emissivity 0.95 compares well ( 10% overestimation) with the actual 2017 lava flow lengths. We evaluated the influence of variable emissivity on lava surface temperatures using spaceborne data by performing several parametrically controlled assessments, using both constant (‘uniform’) and a ‘two-component’ emissivity approach. Computed total radiant fluxes, using the same spaceborne scene (Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI)), di er 15% depending on emissivity endmembers (i.e., 0.95 and 0.60). These results further suggest that computed radiant flux using high-spatial resolution data is bordering at lower boundary (range) values of the moderate-to-high temporal resolution spaceborne data (i.e., Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Spinning Enhanced Visible and Infrared Imager (SEVIRI)), acquired for the same target area (and the same time interval). These findings may have considerable impact on civil protection decisions made during volcanic crisis involving lava flows as they approach protected or populated areas. Nonetheless, the laboratory work, reported here, should be extended to include higher volcanic eruptive temperatures (up to 1350 K).

Remote sensing is an established technological solution for bridging critical gaps in volcanic hazard assessment and risk mitigation. The enormous amount of remote sensing data available today at a range of temporal and spatial resolutions can aid emergency management in volcanic crises by detecting and measuring high-temperature thermal anomalies and providing lava flow propagation forecasts. In such thermal estimates, an important role is played by emissivity—the efficiency with which a surface radiates its thermal energy at various wavelengths. Emissivity has a close relationship with land surface temperatures and radiant fluxes, and it impacts directly on the prediction of lava flow behavior, as mass flux estimates depend on measured radiant fluxes. Since emissivity is seldom measured and mostly assumed, we aimed to fill this gap in knowledge by carrying out a multi-stage experiment, combining laboratory-based Fourier transform infrared (FTIR) analyses, remote sensing data, and numerical modeling. We tested the capacity for reproducing emissivity from spaceborne observations using ASTER Global Emissivity Database (GED) while assessing the spatial heterogeneity of emissivity. Our laboratory-satellite emissivity values were used to establish a realistic land surface temperature from a high-resolution spaceborne payload (ETM+) to obtain an instant temperature–radiant flux and eruption rate results for the 2001 Mount Etna (Italy) eruption. Forward-modeling tests conducted on the 2001 ‘aa’ lava flow by means of the MAGFLOW Cellular Automata code produced differences of up to ~600 m in the simulated lava flow ‘distance-to-run’ for a range of emissivity values. Given the density and proximity of urban settlements on and around Mount Etna, these results may have significant implications for civil protection and urban planning applications.

RED SEED stands for Risk Evaluation, Detection and Simulation during Effusive Eruption Disasters, and combines stakeholders from the remote sensing, modelling and response communities with experience in tracking volcanic effusive events. The group first met during a three day-long workshop held in Clermont Ferrand (France) between 28 and 30 May 2013. During each day, presentations were given reviewing the state of the art in terms of (a) volcano hot spot detection and parameterization, (b) operational satellite-based hot spot detection systems, (c) lava flow modelling and (d) response protocols during effusive crises. At the end of each pre- sentation set, the four groups retreated to discuss and report on requirements for a truly integrated and operational response that satisfactorily combines remote sensors, modellers and responders during an effusive crisis. The results of collating the final reports, and follow-up discussions that have been on-going since the workshop, are given here. We can reduce our discussions to four main findings. (1) Hot spot detection tools are operational and capable of providing effusive erup- tion onset notice within 15 min. (2) Spectral radiance metrics can also be provided with high degrees of confidence. However, if we are to achieve a truly global system, more local receiving stations need to be installed with hot spot detection and data processing modules running on-site and in real time. (3) Models are operational, but need real-time input of reliable time-averaged discharge rate data and regular updates of digital elevation models if they are to be effective; the latter can be provided by the radar/photogrammetry community. (4) Information needs to be provided in an agreed and standard format following an ensemble approach and using models that have been validated and recognized as trustworthy by the responding authorities. All of this requires a sophisticated and centralized data collection, distribution and reporting hub that is based on a philosophy of joint ownership and mutual trust. While the next chapter carries out an exercise to explore the viability of the last point, the detailed recommendations behind these findings are detailed here.

Sulphur dioxide (SO2)fluxes of active degassing volcanoes are routinely measured with ground-based equipment to characterize and monitor volcanic activity. SO2 of unmonitored volcanoes or from explosive volcanic eruptions, can be measured with satellites. However, remote-sensing methods based on absorption spectroscopy generally provide integrated amounts of already dispersed plumes of SO2 and satellite derived flux estimates are rarely reported. Here we review a number of different techniques to derive volcanic SO2 fluxes using satellite measurements of plumes of SO2 and investigate the temporal evolution of the total emissions of SO2 for three very different volcanic events in 2011: Puyehue-Cord on Caulle (Chile), Nyamulagira (DR Congo) and Nabro (Eritrea). High spectral resolution satellite instruments operating both in the ultravioletvisible (OMI/Aura and GOME-2/MetOp-A) and thermal infrared (IASI/MetOp-A) spectral ranges, and multispectral satellite instruments operating in the thermal infrared (MODIS/Terra-Aqua) are used. We show that satellite data can provide fluxes with a sampling of a day or less (few hours in the best case). Generally the flux results from the different methods are consistent, and we discuss the advantages and weaknesses of each technique. Although the primary objective of this study is the calculation of SO2 fluxes, it also enables us to assess the consistency of the SO2 products from the different sensors used.

Two marine magnetic surveys were carried out during 1997 and 1999 in the Ionian Sea off the eastern coast of Sicily to investigate the magnetic structures of the eastern base of Mt. Etna and the Hyblean Plateau. The investigated area is approximately 85 km long and 15 km wide, running from North to South, in the Western Ionian Sea. Models along two profiles parallel to the coast and over the entire area provide a possible distribution of volcanic bodies and volcaniclastic deposits off the eastern coast of Sicily and their relations with the sedimentary substratum. 3D modeling suggests the presence of magnetized bodies, inserted in the sedimentary substratum, plausibly related to Hyblean Plateau volcanism in the south sector and to Mt. Etna activity in the north. We speculate that the Malta Escarpment could have produced preferential ways for magma ascents off the Hyblean Plateau. The spatial continuity of the volcanism affecting the entire investigated area could testify spatial transition between Hyblean and Etnean volcanism supporting the hypothesis that the magma process migrated with time from south-east to north-west.

Detection of local magnetic field perturbations has often been proposed for monitoring the modifications within the volcanic edifice of the stress field or of the thermodynamic state and providing a tool for prediction of eruptions. In order to evaluate the suitability of magnetic monitoring on Mt. Etna, we analysed two historic series of magnetic data recorded there: i) during the 1981 eruption and ii) immediately after 1989 eruption. Moreover, we examined time series associated with the intense explosive activity of Etna in 1995 summer provided by the present permanent magnetic network which was set up between 1994 and 1995.

The seismicity which affects Mt.Vesuvius is, at present, the only clear indicator of the volcano dynamics. In the last years, two periods of increased seismic activity occurred (August-October 1995 and March-May 1996). This seismicity was detected by the 10 analog stations of the Permanent Seismic Network as well as by up to 7 three-component temporary digital stations. A total number of about 600 events have been recorded, four of which showing magnitude >3.0. The maximum magnitude earthquake (M=3.4) was the strongest in the last fifty years and occurred on 25 April 1996. The use of three-component seismometers allowed us to obtain very reliable hypocentral locations. The focal volume of the two seismic crises does not exceed 5-6 km of depth below the crater area. Fault plane solutions of the most energetic events show focal planes oriented NW-SE and NE-SW, in agreement with the regional tectonic features, indicating that at present the seismicity of Mt.Vesuvius develops along pre-existing discontinuities. In addition, the occurrence of a fluiddriven source mechanism suggests a role played by the underground water on the seismic energy release. Shear wave splitting analyses confirmed the presence of an anisotropic volume related to a distribution of cracks andlor fractures parallely aligned to the main faults system of the volcano.

A large temporal anomaly was retrieved in the total geomagnetic field series recorded in 1981 on Mt. Etna at two continuously recording magnetometers, and associated with the March 17-23 eruption of the volcano. Variations were of such large scale that a 10 nT anomaly was observed at a distance of some 7 km from the eruptive events, calling for a significant extension and depth of the magnetic anomaly source. We discuss here some models which may account for such magnetic changes in relation to the eruption mechanism inferred by other data. The anomaly is thought to be accounted for by the joint effect of piezomagnetism of the country rocks and thermal demagnetisation engendered by a large intrusive dyke.

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