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Zuccolo, Elisa
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- PublicationRestrictedAn inter-disciplinary and multi-scale approach to assess the spatial variability of ground motion for seismic microzonation: the case study of Cavezzo municipality in Northern Italy(2020)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Seismic microzonation represents a basic tool for prevention activity planning and land management. An extensive and detailed microzonation study was performed with reference to the territory of the Municipality of Cavezzo, damaged during the seismic sequence hitting Emilia-Romagna Region, Northern Italy, in 2012. In this paper, we discuss the work carried out to characterize the spatial variability of ground motion amplification due to local soil conditions in the municipality area. An inter- and multi-disciplinary approach is presented, involving geotechnical engineers, geophysicists, geologists and seismologists from different institutions, to thoroughly characterize the territory using complementary techniques with different level of resolution and confidence. A considerable amount of geomorphological, geological, hydrogeological, seismological, geotechnical and geophysical investigations was collected and processed for the purpose. A GIS-based (Geographic Information System) platform was initially setup to manage the gathered data, which now includes the results of about 1000 geotechnical and geophysical tests. Such an extended dataset was then used as a primary constraint for the creation of a comprehensive pseudo-3D geotechnical and seismo-stratigraphic model of the territory, consisting of a dense grid of one-dimensional vertical profiles to depict the variability of the soil properties over the area. The model was finally used as input for linear-equivalent ground response analysis. For the calculation of the amplification factors, special emphasis was given to the treatment and propagation of the uncertainties of the model parameters, whose different realizations have been accounted through a logic tree approach.295 4 - PublicationOpen AccessEarthquake Rupture Forecasts for the MPS19 Seismic Hazard Model of Italy(2021)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; In recent years, new approaches for developing earthquake rupture forecasts (ERFs) have been proposed to be used as an input for probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA). Zone- based approaches with seismicity rates derived from earthquake catalogs are commonly used in many countries as the standard for national seismic hazard models. In Italy, a single zone- based ERF is currently the basis for the official seismic hazard model. In this contribution, we present eleven new ERFs, including five zone-based, two smoothed seismicity-based, two fault- based, and two geodetic-based, used for a new PSH model in Italy. The ERFs were tested against observed seismicity and were subject to an elicitation procedure by a panel of PSHA experts to verify the scientific robustness and consistency of the forecasts with respect to the observations. Tests and elicitation were finalized to weight the ERFs. The results show a good response to the new inputs to observed seismicity in the last few centuries. The entire approach was a first attempt to build a community-based set of ERFs for an Italian PSHA model. The project involved a large number of seismic hazard practitioners, with their knowledge and experience, and the development of different models to capture and explore a large range of epistemic uncertainties in building ERFs, and represents an important step forward for the new national seismic hazard model.3426 95