Spatial organization of foreshocks as a tool to forecast large earthquakes

Abstract

An increase in the number of smaller magnitude events, retrospectively named foreshocks, is often observed before large earthquakes. We show that the linear density probability of earthquakes occurring before and after small or intermediate mainshocks displays a symmetrical behavior, indicating that the size of the area fractured during the mainshock is encoded in the foreshock spatial organization. This observation can be used to discriminate spatial clustering due to foreshocks from the one induced by aftershocks and is implemented in an alarm-based model to forecast m . 6 earthquakes. A retrospective study of the last 19 years Southern California catalog shows that the daily occurrence probability presents isolated peaks closely located in time and space to the epicenters of five of the six m . 6 earthquakes. We find daily probabilities as high as 25% (in cells of size 0.04 3 0.04deg2), with significant probability gains with respect to standard models.