Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/7598
AuthorsCappello, A.* 
Vicari, A.* 
Del Negro, C.* 
TitleRetrospective validation of a lava flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano
Issue Date2011
Series/Report no.5/54 (2011)
DOI10.4401/ag-5345
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/7598
KeywordsLava-flow paths, MAGFLOW simulator, Fitting scores, Temporal validation.
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.99. General or miscellaneous 
04. Solid Earth::04.08. Volcanology::04.08.08. Volcanic risk 
AbstractThis report presents a retrospective methodology to validate a long-term hazard map related to lava-flow invasion at Mount Etna, the most active volcano in Europe. A lava-flow hazard map provides the probability that a specific point will be affected by potential destructive volcanic processes over the time period considered. We constructed this lava-flow hazard map for Mount Etna volcano through the identification of the emission regions with the highest probabilities of eruptive vents and through characterization of the event types for the numerical simulations and the computation of the eruptive probabilities. Numerical simulations of lavaflow paths were carried out using the MAGFLOW cellular automata model. To validate the methodology developed, a hazard map was built by considering only the eruptions that occurred at Mount Etna before 1981. On the basis of the probability of coverage by lava flows, the map was divided into ten classes, and two fitting scores were calculated to measure the overlap between the hazard classes and the actual shapes of the lava flows that occurred after 1981.
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