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http://hdl.handle.net/2122/16816
Authors: | Zaccagnino, Davide* Vallianatos, Filippos* Michas, Georgios* Telesca, Luciano* Doglioni, Carlo* |
Title: | Are Foreshocks Fore‐Shocks? | Journal: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth | Series/Report no.: | /129 (2024) | Publisher: | Wiley-Agu | Issue Date: | 2024 | DOI: | 10.1029/2023JB027337 | Keywords: | Foreshocks Earthquake prediction Seismic forecasting Earthquake |
Subject Classification: | 04.06. Seismology | Abstract: | Foreshocks are spatially clustered seismic events preceding large earthquakes. Since the dawn of seismology, their occurrence has been identified as a possible mechanism leading to further crustal destabilization, hence, to major failures. However, several cases occurred without any previous anomalous seismic activity, so that the hypothesis of foreshocks as reliable seismic precursors fails to pass statistical tests. Here, we perform an all‐round statistical comparative analysis of seismicity in Southern California to assess whether any differences can be identified between swarms and foreshocks. Our results suggest that extremely variable seismic patterns can forerun mainshocks, even though they tend to be preceded by clusters with more numerous events spread over larger areas than swarms and with a wider range of magnitudes. We provide a physical explanation of such dissimilarity and conclude, despite it, that foreshocks can hardly be reliable short‐ term precursors of large earthquakes in California. |
Appears in Collections: | Article published / in press |
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File | Description | Size | Format | |
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2024_Zaccagnino Foreshocks.pdf | Open Access Published Article | 2.57 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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