Anomalies and transient variations of b-value in Italy during the major earthquake sequences: what truth is there to this?

Abstract

The Gutenberg–Richter b-value is thought to be a proxy of stress conditions in the crust and therefore able to locate asperities as zones of stress concentration responsible for the nucleation of strong events. The scientific literature contains a broad range of case studies showing precursory drops of b, just before the occurrence of strong events, and subsequent rises, during the early part of aftershocks sequences. Translating these results into hazard assessment, the b-value has assumed the status of a candidate precursor to the occurrence of an imminent large event. This issue is analysed here for three major seismic sequences that occurred recently in Italy. In comparison to previous studies, this investigation indicates that the variability of b may not be a reliable indicator of stress or a significant precursor in these examples, and instead may be assigned to a combination of chance, inhomogeneities in the data and inefficiencies in estimation methodologies. Consequently, extreme caution is required when we interpret b-values both as a proxy of physical processes involved in a seismic sequence and as a precursor to the occurrence of imminent strong events.