Clock advance and magnitude limitation through fault interaction: the case of the 2016 central Italy earthquake sequence

Abstract

Faults communicate with each other. Strong earthquakes perturb stress over large volumes modifying the load on nearby faults and their resistance to slip. The causative fault induces permanent or transient perturbations that can change the time to the next seismic rupture with respect to that expected for a steadily accumulating stress. For a given fault, an increase of stress or a strength decrease would drive it closer to - or maybe even trigger - an earthquake. This is usually perceived as an undesired circumstance. However, with respect to the potential damage, a time advance might not necessarily be a bad thing. Here we show that the central Italy seismic sequence starting with the Amatrice earthquake on 24 August 2016 advanced the 30 October Norcia earthquake (MW = 6.5), but limited its magnitude by inhibiting the rupture on large portions of the fault plane. The preceding events hastened the mainshock and determined its features by shaping a patch of concentrated stress. During the Norcia earthquake, the coseismic slip remained substantially confined to this patch. Our results demonstrate that monitoring the seismicity with very dense networks and timely analyses can make it feasible to map rupture prone areas.