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A Ten-Year Earthquake Occurrence Model for Italy
Author(s)
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
3/102(2012)
ISSN
0037-1106
Electronic ISSN
1943-3573
Publisher
Seismological Society of America
Pages (printed)
1195-1213
Issued date
2012
Abstract
The recent Mw 6.3 destructive L’Aquila earthquake has further stimulated the improvement of the Italian operational earthquake forecasting capability
at different time intervals. Here, we describe a medium-term (10-year) forecast model
for Mw ≥5:5 earthquakes in Italy that aims at opening new possibilities for risk mitigation purposes. While a longer forecast yielded by the national seismic-hazard map
is the primary component in establishing the building code, a medium-term earthquake forecast model may be useful to prioritize additional risk mitigation strategies
such as the retrofitting of vulnerable structures. In particular, we have developed an
earthquake occurrence model for a 10-year forecast that consists of a weighted average of time-independent and different types of available time-dependent models,
based on seismotectonic zonations and regular grids. The inclusion of time-dependent
models marks a difference with the earthquake occurrence model of the national seismic-hazard map, and it is motivated by the fact that, at the 10-year scale, the contribution of time-dependency in the earthquake occurrence process may play a
major role. The models are assembled through a simple averaging scheme whereby
each model is weighted through the results of a retrospective testing phase similar to
the ones carried out in the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake
Predictability. In this way, the most hazardous Italian areas in the next ten years will
arise from a combination of distinct models that place more emphasis on different
aspects of the earthquake occurrence process, such as earthquake clustering, historical
seismic rate, and the presence of delayed faults capable of large events. Finally, we
report new challenges and possible developments for future updating of the model.
at different time intervals. Here, we describe a medium-term (10-year) forecast model
for Mw ≥5:5 earthquakes in Italy that aims at opening new possibilities for risk mitigation purposes. While a longer forecast yielded by the national seismic-hazard map
is the primary component in establishing the building code, a medium-term earthquake forecast model may be useful to prioritize additional risk mitigation strategies
such as the retrofitting of vulnerable structures. In particular, we have developed an
earthquake occurrence model for a 10-year forecast that consists of a weighted average of time-independent and different types of available time-dependent models,
based on seismotectonic zonations and regular grids. The inclusion of time-dependent
models marks a difference with the earthquake occurrence model of the national seismic-hazard map, and it is motivated by the fact that, at the 10-year scale, the contribution of time-dependency in the earthquake occurrence process may play a
major role. The models are assembled through a simple averaging scheme whereby
each model is weighted through the results of a retrospective testing phase similar to
the ones carried out in the framework of the Collaboratory for the Study of Earthquake
Predictability. In this way, the most hazardous Italian areas in the next ten years will
arise from a combination of distinct models that place more emphasis on different
aspects of the earthquake occurrence process, such as earthquake clustering, historical
seismic rate, and the presence of delayed faults capable of large events. Finally, we
report new challenges and possible developments for future updating of the model.
References
Akinci, A, F. Galadini, D. Pantosti, M. Petersen, L. Malagnini, and
D. Perkins (2009). Effect of time dependence on probabilistic seismic-hazard maps and deaggregation for the central Apennines, Italy,
Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 99, 585–610.
Akinci, A., D. Perkins, A. M. Lombardi, and R. Basili (2010). Uncertainties
in the estimation of the probability of occurrence of strong earthquakes
from individual seismological sources in the Apennines, Italy, J. Seismol. 14, 95–117.
Akinci, A. (2010). HAZGRIDX: Earthquake forecasting model for ML ≥5:0
earthquakes in Italy based on spatially smoothed seismicity, Ann.
Geophys. 53, no. 3, 51–61, doi 10.4401/ag-4811.
Albarello, D., and V. D’Amico (2008). Testing probabilistic seismic hazard
estimates by comparison with observations: An example in Italy,
Geophys. J. Int. 175, 1088–1094.
Avallone, A., G. Selvaggi, E. D’Anastasio, N. D’Agostino, G. Pietrantonio,
F. Riguzzi, E. Serpelloni, M. Anzidei, G. Casula, and G. Cecere et al.
(2010). The RING network: Improvements of a GPS velocity field in
the central Mediterranean, Ann. Geophys. 53, 39–54, doi 10.4401/
ag-4549.
Basili, R., G. Valensise, P. Vannoli, P. Burrato, U. Fracassi, S. Mariano,
M. M. Tiberti, and E. Boschi (2008). The Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), version 3: Summarizing 20 years of research
on Italy’s earthquake geology, Tectonophysics 453, 20–43, doi
10.1016/j.tecto.2007.04.014.
Burrato, P., and G. Valensise (2008). Rise and fall of a hypothesized seismic
gap: Source complexity in the Mw 7.0 16 December 1857 southern
Italy earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 98, 139–148, doi 10.1785/
0120070094.
Cinti, F. R., M. Moro, D. Pantosti, L. Cucci, and G. D’Addezio (2002). New
constraints on the seismic history of the Castrovillari fault in the
Pollino gap (Calabria, southern Italy), J. Seismol. 6, 199–217, doi
10.1023/A:1015693127008.
Cinti, F. R., L. Faenza, W. Marzocchi, and P. Montone (2004). Probability
map of the next M ≥5:5 earthquakes in Italy, Geochem. Geophys.
Geosys. 5, Q11003, doi 10.1029/2004GC000724.
Console, R., M. Murru, and A. M. Lombardi (2003). Refining earthquake
clustering models, J. Geophys. Res. 108, 2468 pp.
D’Agostino, N., D. Cheloni, S. Mantenuto, G. Selvaggi, A. Michelini, and
D. Zuliani (2005) Strain accumulation in the southern Alps (NE Italy)
and deformation at the northeastern boundary of Adria observed by
CGPS measurements, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L19306, doi 10.1029/
2005GL024266.
Daley, D. J., and D. Vere-Jones (2004). Scoring probability forecasts for
point processes: The entropy score and information gain, in Stochastic
Methods and Their Applications, J. Gani and E. Seneta (Editors), special issue, J. Appl. Prob. 41A, 297–312.
Ellsworth, W. L., M. V. Matthews, R. M. Nadeau, S. P. Nishenko,
P. A. Reasenberg, and R. W. Simpson (1999). A physically-based
earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long term earthquake
probabilities, U. S. Geol. Surv. Open-File Rept. 99-522, 23 pp.
Faenza, L., W. Marzocchi, and E. Boschi (2003). A nonparametric hazard
model to characterize the spatio-temporal occurrence of large earthquakes; an application to the Italian catalogue, Geophys. J. Int.
155, 521–531.
Faenza, L., W. Marzocchi, P. Serretti, and E. Boschi (2008). On the
spatio-temporal distribution of M 7:0 worldwide seismicity with a
non-parametric statistics, Tectonophysics 449, 97–104, doi 10.1016/
j.tecto.2007.11.066.
Faenza, L., and W. Marzocchi (2010). The proportional hazard model applied to the CSEP testing area in Italy, Ann. Geophys. 53, 77–84.
Falcone, G., R. Console, and M. Murru (2010). Short-term and long-term
earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST, Ann.
Geophys. 53, 41–50.
Field, E. H., D. D. Johnson, and J. F. Dolan (1999). A mutually consistent
seismic-hazard source model for southern California, Bull. Seismol.
Soc. Am. 89, 559–578.
Field, E. H., T. E. Dawson, K. R. Felzer, A. D. Frankel, V. Gupta,
T. H. Jordan, T. Parsons, M. D. Petersen, R. S. Stein, R. J. Weldon
III, and C. J. Wills (2009). Uniform California Earthquake Rupture
Forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2), Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 99, 2053–
2107, doi 10.1785/0120080049.
Frankel, A. (1995). Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern
United States, Seismol. Res. Lett. 66, 8–21.
Gerstenberger, M., S. Wiemer, L. M. Jones, and P. A. Reasenberg (2005).
Real-time forecasts of tomorrow’s earthquakes in California, Nature
435, 328–331.
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2011).
Gruppo di Lavoro MPS (2004). Redazione della mappa di pericolosità
sismica prevista dall’Ordinanza PCM 3274 del 20 marzo 2003, rapporto conclusivo per il Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, INGV,
Milano-Roma, aprile 2004, 65 pp. + 5 appendici (in Italian), http://
zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it/documenti/rapporto_conclusivo.pdf (last accessed October 2008).
Jordan, T. H. (2006). Earthquake predictability, brick by brick, Seismol. Res.
Lett. 77, 3–6.Jordan, T. H., and L. M. Jones (2010). Operational earthquake forecasting:
Some thoughts on why and how, Seismol. Res. Lett. 81, 571–574, doi
10.1785/gssrl.81.4.571.
Jordan, T. H., Y.-T. Chen, P. Gasparini, R. Madariaga, I. Main, W. Marzocchi,
G. Papadopoulos, G. Sobolev, K. Yamaoka, and J. Zschau (2011).
Operational earthquake forecasting: State of knowledge and
guidelines for implementation, Ann. Geophys. 54, 315–391, doi
10.4401/ag-5350.
Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson (1991). Long-term earthquake clustering,
Geophys. J. Int. 104, 117–133.
Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson (1994). Long-term probabilistic forecasting
of earthquakes, J. Geophys.Res. 99, 13,685–13,700.
Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson (2000). Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J. Int. 143, 438–453.
Lombardi, A. M., and W. Marzocchi (2007). Evidence of clustering
and nonstationarity in the time distribution of large worldwide
earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 112, no. B02303, doi 10.1029/
2006JB004568.
Lombardi, A. M., and W. Marzocchi (2009). Double branching model to
forecast the next M ≥5:5 earthquakes in Italy, Tectonophysics 475,
514–523, doi 10.1016/j.tecto.2009.06.014.
Lombardi, A. M., and W. Marzocchi (2010a). A stochastic point process for
daily earthquake forecasting; application to the Italian seismicity, Ann.
Geophys. 53, 155–164.
Lombardi, A. M., and W. Marzocchi (2010b). The double branching model
(DBM) applied to forecasting Italian seismicity in CSEP experiment,
Ann. Geophys. 53, 31–39.
Lombardi, A. M., and W. Marzocchi (2010c). The assumption of Poisson
seismic rate variability in CSEP/RELM experiments, Bull. Seismol.
Soc. Am. 100, 2293–2300.
Marzocchi, W., and A. M. Lombardi (2008). A double branching model for
earthquake occurrence, J. Geophys. Res. 113, no. B08317, doi
10.1029/2007JB005472.
Marzocchi, W., D. Schorlemmer, and S. Wiemer (2010). Preface in An
Earthquake Forecast Experiment in Italy, special issue, Ann. Geophys.
53, III–VIII.
Marzocchi, W., and J. D. Zechar (2011). Earthquake forecasting and earthquake prediction: Different approaches for obtaining the best model,
Seismol. Res. Lett. 82, 442–448.
Matthews, M. V., W. L. Ellsworth, and P. A. Reasenberg (2002). A Brownian
model for recurrent earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 92, 2233–
2250, doi 10.1785/0120010267.
Meletti, C., F. Galadini, G. Valensise, M. Stucchi, R. Basili, S. Barba,
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for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory, Tectonophysics 450, 85–108.
Moro, M., L. Amicucci, F. R. Cinti, F. Doumaz, P. Montone,
S. Pierdominici, M. Saroli, S. Stramondo, and B. Di Fiore (2007).
Surface evidence of active tectonics along the Pergola-Melandro fault:
A critical issue for the seismogenic potential of the southern
Apennines, Italy, J. Geodyn. 44, 19–32.
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studies, Seismol. Res. Lett. 81, 423–424.
Ogata, Y. (1988). Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual
analysis for point processes, J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 83, 9–27.
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seismogenic source model and probabilistic seismic-hazard analyses
in central Italy, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 96, 107–132, doi 10.1785/
0120040231.
Parsons, T. (2002). Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes: Large
aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone, J. Geophys. Res. 107,
2199, doi 10.1029/2001JB000646.
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D. Perkins (2009). Effect of time dependence on probabilistic seismic-hazard maps and deaggregation for the central Apennines, Italy,
Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 99, 585–610.
Akinci, A., D. Perkins, A. M. Lombardi, and R. Basili (2010). Uncertainties
in the estimation of the probability of occurrence of strong earthquakes
from individual seismological sources in the Apennines, Italy, J. Seismol. 14, 95–117.
Akinci, A. (2010). HAZGRIDX: Earthquake forecasting model for ML ≥5:0
earthquakes in Italy based on spatially smoothed seismicity, Ann.
Geophys. 53, no. 3, 51–61, doi 10.4401/ag-4811.
Albarello, D., and V. D’Amico (2008). Testing probabilistic seismic hazard
estimates by comparison with observations: An example in Italy,
Geophys. J. Int. 175, 1088–1094.
Avallone, A., G. Selvaggi, E. D’Anastasio, N. D’Agostino, G. Pietrantonio,
F. Riguzzi, E. Serpelloni, M. Anzidei, G. Casula, and G. Cecere et al.
(2010). The RING network: Improvements of a GPS velocity field in
the central Mediterranean, Ann. Geophys. 53, 39–54, doi 10.4401/
ag-4549.
Basili, R., G. Valensise, P. Vannoli, P. Burrato, U. Fracassi, S. Mariano,
M. M. Tiberti, and E. Boschi (2008). The Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources (DISS), version 3: Summarizing 20 years of research
on Italy’s earthquake geology, Tectonophysics 453, 20–43, doi
10.1016/j.tecto.2007.04.014.
Burrato, P., and G. Valensise (2008). Rise and fall of a hypothesized seismic
gap: Source complexity in the Mw 7.0 16 December 1857 southern
Italy earthquake, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 98, 139–148, doi 10.1785/
0120070094.
Cinti, F. R., M. Moro, D. Pantosti, L. Cucci, and G. D’Addezio (2002). New
constraints on the seismic history of the Castrovillari fault in the
Pollino gap (Calabria, southern Italy), J. Seismol. 6, 199–217, doi
10.1023/A:1015693127008.
Cinti, F. R., L. Faenza, W. Marzocchi, and P. Montone (2004). Probability
map of the next M ≥5:5 earthquakes in Italy, Geochem. Geophys.
Geosys. 5, Q11003, doi 10.1029/2004GC000724.
Console, R., M. Murru, and A. M. Lombardi (2003). Refining earthquake
clustering models, J. Geophys. Res. 108, 2468 pp.
D’Agostino, N., D. Cheloni, S. Mantenuto, G. Selvaggi, A. Michelini, and
D. Zuliani (2005) Strain accumulation in the southern Alps (NE Italy)
and deformation at the northeastern boundary of Adria observed by
CGPS measurements, Geophys. Res. Lett. 32, L19306, doi 10.1029/
2005GL024266.
Daley, D. J., and D. Vere-Jones (2004). Scoring probability forecasts for
point processes: The entropy score and information gain, in Stochastic
Methods and Their Applications, J. Gani and E. Seneta (Editors), special issue, J. Appl. Prob. 41A, 297–312.
Ellsworth, W. L., M. V. Matthews, R. M. Nadeau, S. P. Nishenko,
P. A. Reasenberg, and R. W. Simpson (1999). A physically-based
earthquake recurrence model for estimation of long term earthquake
probabilities, U. S. Geol. Surv. Open-File Rept. 99-522, 23 pp.
Faenza, L., W. Marzocchi, and E. Boschi (2003). A nonparametric hazard
model to characterize the spatio-temporal occurrence of large earthquakes; an application to the Italian catalogue, Geophys. J. Int.
155, 521–531.
Faenza, L., W. Marzocchi, P. Serretti, and E. Boschi (2008). On the
spatio-temporal distribution of M 7:0 worldwide seismicity with a
non-parametric statistics, Tectonophysics 449, 97–104, doi 10.1016/
j.tecto.2007.11.066.
Faenza, L., and W. Marzocchi (2010). The proportional hazard model applied to the CSEP testing area in Italy, Ann. Geophys. 53, 77–84.
Falcone, G., R. Console, and M. Murru (2010). Short-term and long-term
earthquake occurrence models for Italy: ETES, ERS and LTST, Ann.
Geophys. 53, 41–50.
Field, E. H., D. D. Johnson, and J. F. Dolan (1999). A mutually consistent
seismic-hazard source model for southern California, Bull. Seismol.
Soc. Am. 89, 559–578.
Field, E. H., T. E. Dawson, K. R. Felzer, A. D. Frankel, V. Gupta,
T. H. Jordan, T. Parsons, M. D. Petersen, R. S. Stein, R. J. Weldon
III, and C. J. Wills (2009). Uniform California Earthquake Rupture
Forecast, version 2 (UCERF 2), Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 99, 2053–
2107, doi 10.1785/0120080049.
Frankel, A. (1995). Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern
United States, Seismol. Res. Lett. 66, 8–21.
Gerstenberger, M., S. Wiemer, L. M. Jones, and P. A. Reasenberg (2005).
Real-time forecasts of tomorrow’s earthquakes in California, Nature
435, 328–331.
Gruppo di Lavoro CPTI (2004). Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani,
versione 2004 (CPTI04), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Bologna, http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/CPTI04/ (last accessed October
2011).
Gruppo di Lavoro MPS (2004). Redazione della mappa di pericolosità
sismica prevista dall’Ordinanza PCM 3274 del 20 marzo 2003, rapporto conclusivo per il Dipartimento della Protezione Civile, INGV,
Milano-Roma, aprile 2004, 65 pp. + 5 appendici (in Italian), http://
zonesismiche.mi.ingv.it/documenti/rapporto_conclusivo.pdf (last accessed October 2008).
Jordan, T. H. (2006). Earthquake predictability, brick by brick, Seismol. Res.
Lett. 77, 3–6.Jordan, T. H., and L. M. Jones (2010). Operational earthquake forecasting:
Some thoughts on why and how, Seismol. Res. Lett. 81, 571–574, doi
10.1785/gssrl.81.4.571.
Jordan, T. H., Y.-T. Chen, P. Gasparini, R. Madariaga, I. Main, W. Marzocchi,
G. Papadopoulos, G. Sobolev, K. Yamaoka, and J. Zschau (2011).
Operational earthquake forecasting: State of knowledge and
guidelines for implementation, Ann. Geophys. 54, 315–391, doi
10.4401/ag-5350.
Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson (1991). Long-term earthquake clustering,
Geophys. J. Int. 104, 117–133.
Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson (1994). Long-term probabilistic forecasting
of earthquakes, J. Geophys.Res. 99, 13,685–13,700.
Kagan, Y. Y., and D. D. Jackson (2000). Probabilistic forecasting of earthquakes, Geophys. J. Int. 143, 438–453.
Lombardi, A. M., and W. Marzocchi (2007). Evidence of clustering
and nonstationarity in the time distribution of large worldwide
earthquakes, J. Geophys. Res. 112, no. B02303, doi 10.1029/
2006JB004568.
Lombardi, A. M., and W. Marzocchi (2009). Double branching model to
forecast the next M ≥5:5 earthquakes in Italy, Tectonophysics 475,
514–523, doi 10.1016/j.tecto.2009.06.014.
Lombardi, A. M., and W. Marzocchi (2010a). A stochastic point process for
daily earthquake forecasting; application to the Italian seismicity, Ann.
Geophys. 53, 155–164.
Lombardi, A. M., and W. Marzocchi (2010b). The double branching model
(DBM) applied to forecasting Italian seismicity in CSEP experiment,
Ann. Geophys. 53, 31–39.
Lombardi, A. M., and W. Marzocchi (2010c). The assumption of Poisson
seismic rate variability in CSEP/RELM experiments, Bull. Seismol.
Soc. Am. 100, 2293–2300.
Marzocchi, W., and A. M. Lombardi (2008). A double branching model for
earthquake occurrence, J. Geophys. Res. 113, no. B08317, doi
10.1029/2007JB005472.
Marzocchi, W., D. Schorlemmer, and S. Wiemer (2010). Preface in An
Earthquake Forecast Experiment in Italy, special issue, Ann. Geophys.
53, III–VIII.
Marzocchi, W., and J. D. Zechar (2011). Earthquake forecasting and earthquake prediction: Different approaches for obtaining the best model,
Seismol. Res. Lett. 82, 442–448.
Matthews, M. V., W. L. Ellsworth, and P. A. Reasenberg (2002). A Brownian
model for recurrent earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 92, 2233–
2250, doi 10.1785/0120010267.
Meletti, C., F. Galadini, G. Valensise, M. Stucchi, R. Basili, S. Barba,
G. Vannucci, and E. Boschi (2008). A seismic source zone model
for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory, Tectonophysics 450, 85–108.
Moro, M., L. Amicucci, F. R. Cinti, F. Doumaz, P. Montone,
S. Pierdominici, M. Saroli, S. Stramondo, and B. Di Fiore (2007).
Surface evidence of active tectonics along the Pergola-Melandro fault:
A critical issue for the seismogenic potential of the southern
Apennines, Italy, J. Geodyn. 44, 19–32.
Mulargia, F. (2010). Opinion: Extending the usefulness of seismic hazard
studies, Seismol. Res. Lett. 81, 423–424.
Ogata, Y. (1988). Statistical models for earthquake occurrences and residual
analysis for point processes, J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 83, 9–27.
Pace, B., L. Peruzza, G. Lavecchia, and P. Boncio (2006). Layered
seismogenic source model and probabilistic seismic-hazard analyses
in central Italy, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 96, 107–132, doi 10.1785/
0120040231.
Parsons, T. (2002). Global Omori law decay of triggered earthquakes: Large
aftershocks outside the classical aftershock zone, J. Geophys. Res. 107,
2199, doi 10.1029/2001JB000646.
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mainshock in California, Science 243, 1173–1176.
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