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An emergent strategy for volcano hazard assessment: From thermal satellite monitoring to lava flow modeling
Author(s)
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
3.6. Fisica del vulcanismo
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
/119 (2012)
Publisher
Elsevier
Pages (printed)
197-207
Issued date
2012
Subjects
Keywords
Abstract
Spaceborne remote sensing techniques and numerical simulations have been combined in a web-GIS framework (LAV@HAZARD) to evaluate lava flow hazard in real time. By using the HOTSAT satellite thermal monitoring system to estimate time-varying TADR (time averaged discharge rate) and the MAGFLOW physicsbased
model to simulate lava flow paths, the LAV@HAZARD platform allows timely definition of parameters and maps essential for hazard assessment, including the propagation time of lava flows and the maximum run-out distance. We used LAV@HAZARD during the 2008–2009 lava flow-forming eruption at Mt Etna (Sicily, Italy). We measured the temporal variation in thermal emission (up to four times per hour) during the entire duration of the eruption using SEVIRI and MODIS data. The time-series of radiative power allowed us to identify six diverse thermal phases each related to different dynamic volcanic processes and associated
with different TADRs and lava flow emplacement conditions. Satellite-derived estimates of lava discharge rates were computed and integrated for the whole period of the eruption (almost 14 months), showing
that a lava volume of between 32 and 61 million cubic meters was erupted of which about 2/3 was emplaced during the first 4 months. These time-varying discharge rates were then used to drive MAGFLOW simulations
to chart the spread of lava as a function of time. TADRs were sufficiently low (b30 m3/s) that no lava flows were capable of flowing any great distance so that they did not pose a hazard to vulnerable (agricultural and urban) areas on the flanks of Etna.
model to simulate lava flow paths, the LAV@HAZARD platform allows timely definition of parameters and maps essential for hazard assessment, including the propagation time of lava flows and the maximum run-out distance. We used LAV@HAZARD during the 2008–2009 lava flow-forming eruption at Mt Etna (Sicily, Italy). We measured the temporal variation in thermal emission (up to four times per hour) during the entire duration of the eruption using SEVIRI and MODIS data. The time-series of radiative power allowed us to identify six diverse thermal phases each related to different dynamic volcanic processes and associated
with different TADRs and lava flow emplacement conditions. Satellite-derived estimates of lava discharge rates were computed and integrated for the whole period of the eruption (almost 14 months), showing
that a lava volume of between 32 and 61 million cubic meters was erupted of which about 2/3 was emplaced during the first 4 months. These time-varying discharge rates were then used to drive MAGFLOW simulations
to chart the spread of lava as a function of time. TADRs were sufficiently low (b30 m3/s) that no lava flows were capable of flowing any great distance so that they did not pose a hazard to vulnerable (agricultural and urban) areas on the flanks of Etna.
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