Options
Probability gains of an epidemic-type aftershock sequence model in retrospective forecasting of M>5.0 earthquakes in Italy
Other Titles
Short-range forecasting model in Italy
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
3.1. Fisica dei terremoti
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
1/14 (2010)
Publisher
springer
Pages (printed)
9-26
Issued date
January 2010
Abstract
A stochastic triggering (epidemic) model
incorporating short-term clustering was fitted
to the instrumental earthquake catalog of Italy
for event with local magnitudes 2.6 and greater
to optimize its ability to retrospectively forecast
33 target events of magnitude 5.0 and greater that
occurred in the period 1990–2006. To obtain an
unbiased evaluation of the information value of
the model, forecasts of each event use parameter
values obtained from data up to the end of the
year preceding the target event. The results of the
test are given in terms of the probability gain of
the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS)
model relative to a time-invariant Poisson model
for each of the 33 target events. These probability
gains range from 0.93 to 32000, with ten of the target
events yielding a probability gain of at least 10.
As the forecasting capability of the ETAS model
is based on seismic activity recorded prior to the
target earthquakes, the highest probability gains
are associated with the occurrence of secondary mainshocks during seismic sequences. However,
in nine of these cases, the largest mainshock of
the sequence was marked by a probability gain
larger than 50, having been preceded by previous
smaller magnitude earthquakes. The overall evaluation
of the performance of the epidemic model
has been carried out by means of four popular
statistical criteria: the relative operating characteristic
diagram, the R score, the probability gain,
and the log-likelihood ratio. These tests confirm
the superior performance of the method with respect
to a spatially varying, time-invariant Poisson
model. Nevertheless, this method is characterized
by a high false alarm rate, which would make its
application in real circumstances problematic.
incorporating short-term clustering was fitted
to the instrumental earthquake catalog of Italy
for event with local magnitudes 2.6 and greater
to optimize its ability to retrospectively forecast
33 target events of magnitude 5.0 and greater that
occurred in the period 1990–2006. To obtain an
unbiased evaluation of the information value of
the model, forecasts of each event use parameter
values obtained from data up to the end of the
year preceding the target event. The results of the
test are given in terms of the probability gain of
the epidemic-type aftershock sequence (ETAS)
model relative to a time-invariant Poisson model
for each of the 33 target events. These probability
gains range from 0.93 to 32000, with ten of the target
events yielding a probability gain of at least 10.
As the forecasting capability of the ETAS model
is based on seismic activity recorded prior to the
target earthquakes, the highest probability gains
are associated with the occurrence of secondary mainshocks during seismic sequences. However,
in nine of these cases, the largest mainshock of
the sequence was marked by a probability gain
larger than 50, having been preceded by previous
smaller magnitude earthquakes. The overall evaluation
of the performance of the epidemic model
has been carried out by means of four popular
statistical criteria: the relative operating characteristic
diagram, the R score, the probability gain,
and the log-likelihood ratio. These tests confirm
the superior performance of the method with respect
to a spatially varying, time-invariant Poisson
model. Nevertheless, this method is characterized
by a high false alarm rate, which would make its
application in real circumstances problematic.
Sponsors
This work was partially supported
for the years 2005–2007 by the Project S2—Assessing
the seismogenic potential and the probability of strong
earthquakes in Italy (Slejko and Valensise coord.)—S2
Project has benefited from funding provided by the Italian
Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri—Dipartimento della
Protezione Civile (DPC). Scientific papers funded by DPC
do not represent its official opinion and policies. The
authors are grateful to the Editors, Laura Peruzza, and
David Perkins, and to two anonymous reviewers, for their
comments and suggestions that contributed to a significant
improvement of the paper.
for the years 2005–2007 by the Project S2—Assessing
the seismogenic potential and the probability of strong
earthquakes in Italy (Slejko and Valensise coord.)—S2
Project has benefited from funding provided by the Italian
Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri—Dipartimento della
Protezione Civile (DPC). Scientific papers funded by DPC
do not represent its official opinion and policies. The
authors are grateful to the Editors, Laura Peruzza, and
David Perkins, and to two anonymous reviewers, for their
comments and suggestions that contributed to a significant
improvement of the paper.
References
Aki K (1981) A probabilistic synthesis of precursory phenomena.
In: Simpson DW, Richards PG (eds) Earthquake
prediction. Am. Geophys. Union, Washington,
pp 556–574
BaiesiM(2006) Scaling and precursormotifs in earthquake
networks. Physica A 360(2):534–542
Catalli F, Cocco M, Console R, Chiaraluce L (2008) Modeling
seismicity rate changes during the 1997 Umbria–
Marche sequence (central Italy) through a rate-and
state-dependent model. J Geophys Res 113:B11301.
doi:10.1029/2007JB005356
Chen C-C, Rundle JB, Li H-C, Holliday JR, Nanjo KZ,
Turcotte DL, Tiampo KF (2006) From tornados to
earthquakes: forecast verification for binary events applied
to the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake. Terr
Atmos Ovean Sci 17(3):503–516
Chiarabba C, Jovane L, Di Stefano R (2005) A new
view of Italian seismicity using 20 years of instrumental
recordings. Tectonophysics 395(3–4):251–
268. http://legacy.ingv.it/CSI. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2004.
09.013
Console R (2001) Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses.
Tectonophysics 338:261–268. doi:10.1016/S0040-1951
(01)00081-6
Console R, Murru M (2001) A simple and testable model
for earthquake clustering. J Geophys Res 106:8699–
8711. doi:10.1029/2000JB900269
Console R, Murru M, Lombardi AM (2003) Refining
earthquake clustering models. J Geophys Res
108:2468. doi:10.1029/2002JB002130
Console R, Murru M, Catalli F (2006a) Physical and
stochastic models of earthquake clustering. Tectonophysics
417:141–153. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2005.05.052
Console R, Rhoades DA, Murru M, Evison FF,
Papadimitriou EE, Karakostas VG (2006b) Comparative
performance of time-invariant, long-range and
short-range forecasting models on the earthquake
catalogue of Greece. J Geophys Res 111:B09304.
doi:10.1029/2005JB004113
ConsoleR,Murru M, Catalli F, FalconeG(2007) Real time
forecasts through an earthquake clustering model constrained
by the rate-and-state constitutive law: comparison
with a purely stochastic ETAS model. Seismol
Res Lett 78:49–56. doi:10.1785/gssrl.78.1.49
Dieterich JH (1994) A constitutive law for rate of
earthquake production and its application to earthquake
clustering. J Geophys Res 99(18):2601–2618.
doi:10.1029/93JB02581
Felzer KR, Becker TW, Abercrombie RE, Ekstrom G,
Rice JR (2002) Triggering of the 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector
Mine earthquake by aftershocks of the 1992 Mw
7.3 Landers earthquake. J Geophys Res 107(B9):2190.
doi:10.1029/2001JB000911.2002
Frankel A (1995) Mapping seismic hazard in the central
and eastern United States. Seismol Res Lett 66:
8–21
Gerstenberger MC, Wiemer S, Jones LM, Reasenberg
PA (2005) Real-time forecasts of tomorrow’s earthquakes
in California. Nature 435:328–331. doi:10.1038/
nature03622
Gomberg J, Beeler NM, Blanpied ML (2000) On ratestate
and Coulomb failure models. J Geophys Res
105(14):7857–7872. doi:10.1029/1999JB900438
Harris RA, Simpson RW (1998) Suppression of large
earthquakes by stress shadows: a comparison of
Coulomb and rate-and-state failure. J Geophys Res
103:24439–24451. doi:10.1029/98JB00793
Hauksson E, Cocco M, Console R, Wiemer S (2007)
Advancing the frontiers of earthquake science. EOS
88(30):302
Helmestetter A, Shaw BE (2006) Relation between stress
heterogeneity and aftershock rate in the rate-andstate
model. J Geophys Res 111(B07304). doi:101029/
2005JB004077
Helmstetter A, Sornette D (2002) Subcritical and supercritical
regimes in epidemic models o earthquake
aftershocks. J Geophys Res 107(B10):2237. doi:10.
1029/2001JB001580
Helmstetter A, Sornette D (2003) Predictability in the
epidemic-type aftershock sequence model of interacting
triggered seismicity. J Geophys Res 108(B10):
2482. doi:10.1029/2003JB002485
Holliday JR, Nanjo KZ, Tiampo KF, Rundle JB, Turcotte
DL (2005) Earthquake forecasting and its verification.
Nonlinear Process Geophys 12:965–977
Imoto M (2007) Information gain of a model based
on multidisciplinary observations with correlations. J
Geophys Res 112:B05306. doi:10.1029/2006JB004662
INGV (2007) Italian seismic bulletin. Istituto Nazionale di
Geofisica e Vulcanologia. http://legacy.ingv.it/∼roma/
reti/rms/bollettino/index.php
Jordan TH (2006) Earthquake probability, brick by brick.
Seismol Res Lett 77(1):3–6. doi:10.1785/gssrl.77.1.3
Kagan YY (1991) Likelihood analysis of earthquake
catalogues. Geophys J Int 106:135–148. doi:10.1111/j.
1365-246X.1991.tb04607.x
Kagan YY (2002) Aftershock zone scaling. Bull Seismol
Soc Am 92(2):641–655. doi:10.1785/0120010172
Kagan YY (2007) On earthquake predictability measurement:
information score and error diagram. Pure
Appl Geophys 164:1947–1962. doi:10.1007/s00024-
007-0260-1
Kagan YY, Jackson DD (1995) New seismic gap hypothesis,
Five years later. J Geophys Res 100:3943–3959.
doi:10.1029/94JB03014
Kilb D, Gomberg J, Bodin P (2002) Aftershocks triggering
by complete Coulomb stress changes. J Geophys Res
107. doi:10.1029/2001JB0002002
King GCP, Cocco M (2001) Fault interaction by elastic
stress changes: new clues from earthquake sequences.
Adv Geophys 44:1–39
King GCP, Stein R, Lin J (1994) Static stress change and
the triggering of earthquakes. Bull Seismol Soc Am
84:935–953
Kossobokov VG (2006) Testing earthquake prediction
methods: the West Pacific short-term forecast
of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8.
Tectonophysics 413(1–2):25–31. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.
2005.10.006
Ma L, Zhuang J (2001) Relative Quiescence within the
Jiashi Swarm in Xinjiang, China: an application of the
ETAS point process model. J Appl Probab 38:213–221
(Probability, Statistics and Seismology)
Marsan D (2006) Can coseismic stress variability suppress
seismicity shadows? Insights from a rate-andstate
friction model. J Geophys Res 111(B10):6305.
doi:10.1029/2005JB004060
Matthews MM, Reasenberg PP (1988) Statistical methods
for investigating quiescence and other temporal seismicity
patterns. Pure Appl Geophys 126:2–4, 357–372.
doi:10.1007/BF00879003
McGuire JJ, Boettcher MS, Jordan TH (2005) Foreshock
sequences and short-term earthquake predictability
on East Pacific Rise transform faults. Nature
434(7032):457–461, Correction-Nature 435(7041):528
Murru M, Console R, Falcone G (2008) Real-time earthquake
forecasting in Italy. Tectonophysics. doi:10.
1016/j.tecto.2008.090.010
Nostro C, Chiaraluce L, Cocco M, Baumont D, Scotti O
(2005) Coulomb stress changes caused by repeated
normal faulting earthquakes during the 1997 Umbria–
Marche (central Italy) seismic sequence. J Geophys
Res 110(B05S20). doi:10.1029/2004JB003386
Ogata Y (1983) Estimation of the parameters in the modified
Omori formula for aftershock frequencies by
the maximum likelihood procedure. J Phys Earth 31:
115–124
Ogata Y (1998) Space–time point-process models for
earthquake occurrences. Ann Inst Stat Math 50(2):
379–402. doi:10.1023/A:1003403601725
Ogata Y (2001) Increased probability of large earthquakes
near aftershock regions with relative quiescence.
J Geophys Res 106(B5):8729–8744. doi:10.
1029/2000JB900400
Ogata Y (2004a) Space-time model for regional seismicity
and detection of crustal stress changes. J Geophys Res
109(B3):B03308. doi:10.1029/2003JB002621
Ogata Y (2004b) Seismicity quiescence and activation in
western Japan associated with the 1944 and 1946 great
earthquakes near the Nankai trough. J Geophys Res
109(B4):B04305. doi:10.1029/2003JB002634
Ogata Y (2005) Synchronous seismicity changes in and
around the northern Japan preceding the 2003
Tokachi-oki earthquake of M8.0. J Geophys Res
110(B5):B08305. doi:10.1029/2004JB003323
Ogata Y (2006a) Monitoring of anomaly in the aftershock
sequence of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0
off coast of the western Fukuoka, Japan, by the
ETAS model. Geoph Res Lett 33(1):L01303. doi:10.
1029/2005GL024405
Ogata Y (2006b) Seismicity anomaly scenario prior to
the major recurrent earthquakes off the east coast
of Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan. Tectonophysics
424:291–306. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.038
Ogata Y (2007) Seismicity and geodetic anomalies in
a wide area preceding the Niigata-Ken-Chuetsu earthquake of 23 October 2004, central Japan. J
Geophys Res 112:B10301. doi:10.1029/2006JB004697
Ogata Y, Katsura K (1993) Analysis of temporal and
spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution
inferred from earthquake catalogues. Geophys
J Int 113:727–738. doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1993.
tb04663.x
Ogata Y, Katsura K (2006) Immediate and updated
forecasting of aftershock hazard. Geophys Res Lett
33(10):L10305. doi:10.1029/2006GL025888
Ogata Y, Zhuang J (2006) Space-time ETAS models
and an improved extension. Tectonophysics 413:13–
23. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2005.10.016
Ogata Y, Jones LM, Toda S (2003) When and where
the aftershock activity was depressed: contrasting decay
patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in
southern California. J Geophys Res 108(B6):2318.
doi:10.1029/2002JB002009 (1-12)
Parsons T (2004) Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7
earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey. J
Geophys Res 109:B05304. doi:10.129/2003JB002667
Parsons T, Dreger DS (2000) Static-stress impact of the
1992 landers earthquake sequence on nucleation andslip
at the site of the 1999 M = 7.1 Hector Mine
earthquake, southern California. Geophys Res Lett
27:1949–1952. doi:10.1029/1999GL011272
Rhoades DA, Evison FF (1989) On the reliability of precursors.
Ph Earth Plann Int 58:137–140. doi:10.1016/
0031-9201(89)90049-6
Rydelek PA, Sacks IS (1989) Testing the completeness
of earthquake catalogs and the hypothesis
of self-similarity. Nature 337:251–253. doi:10.1038/
337251a0
Saichev A, Sornette D (2006) Renormalization of branching
models of triggered seismicity from total to observable
seismicity. Eur Phys J B 51:443–459. doi:10.
1140/epjb/e2006-00242-6
Shi Y, Bolt B (1982) The standard error of the magnitude
frequency b value. Bull Seismol Soc Am 72:1677–
1687
Shi Y, Liu J, Zhang G (2001) An evaluation of Chinese
annual earthquake predictions, 1990–1998. J Appl
Probab 38A:222–231. doi:10.1239/jap/1085496604
Steacy S, Nalbant S, McCloskey J, Nostro C, Scotti O,
Beaumont D (2005) Onto what planes should
Coulomb stress perturbations be resolved? J Geophys
Res 110(B05S15). doi:10.1029/2004JB003356
Stein RS, Barka AA, Dieterich JH (1997) Progressive failure
on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake
stress triggering. Geophys J Int 128:594–604.
doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb05321.x
S2 project (2005–2007) Evaluation of seismogenic potential
and probability of large earthquakes in Italy supported
for the years 2005–2007 by the Italian Department for
Civil Protection (DPC) and the Istituto Nazionale di
Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Toda S, Stein RS (2003) Toggling of seismicity by the
1997 Kagoshima earthquake couplet: a demonstration
of time-dependent stress transfer. J Geophys Res
109(B12, 2567). doi:10.1029/2003JB002527
Toda S, Stein RS, Richards-Dinger K, Bozkurt SB (2005)
Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern
California: animations built ion earthquakes stress
transfer. J Geophys Res 110:B05S16. doi:10.1029/
2004JB003415
Wiemer S (2001) A software package to analyze seismicity:
ZMAP. Seismol Res Lett 72:373–382
Wiemer S, Benoit J (1996) Mapping the b-value anomaly
at 100 km depth in Alaska and New Zealand
subduction zones. Geophys Res Lett 23:1557–1560.
doi:10.1029/96GL01233
Wiemer S, Wyss M (2000) Minimum magnitude of completeness
in earthquake catalogs: examples from
Alaska, the Western United States, and Japan. Bull
Seism Soc Am 90:859–869
Zechar JD, Jordan TH (2007) Testing alarm-based earthquake
predictions. Geophys J Int. doi:10.1111/j.1365-
246X.2007.03676.x
Zhuang J, Ogata Y, Vere-Jones D (2004) Analyzing earthquake
clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction.
J Geophys Res 109(B5):B05301. doi:10.
1029/2003JB002879
Zhuang J, Chang C, Ogata Y, Chen Y (2005) A study
on the background and clustering seismicity in the
Taiwan region by using point process models. J Geophys
Res 110(B5):B05S18. doi:10.1029/2004JB003157
In: Simpson DW, Richards PG (eds) Earthquake
prediction. Am. Geophys. Union, Washington,
pp 556–574
BaiesiM(2006) Scaling and precursormotifs in earthquake
networks. Physica A 360(2):534–542
Catalli F, Cocco M, Console R, Chiaraluce L (2008) Modeling
seismicity rate changes during the 1997 Umbria–
Marche sequence (central Italy) through a rate-and
state-dependent model. J Geophys Res 113:B11301.
doi:10.1029/2007JB005356
Chen C-C, Rundle JB, Li H-C, Holliday JR, Nanjo KZ,
Turcotte DL, Tiampo KF (2006) From tornados to
earthquakes: forecast verification for binary events applied
to the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, Earthquake. Terr
Atmos Ovean Sci 17(3):503–516
Chiarabba C, Jovane L, Di Stefano R (2005) A new
view of Italian seismicity using 20 years of instrumental
recordings. Tectonophysics 395(3–4):251–
268. http://legacy.ingv.it/CSI. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2004.
09.013
Console R (2001) Testing earthquake forecast hypotheses.
Tectonophysics 338:261–268. doi:10.1016/S0040-1951
(01)00081-6
Console R, Murru M (2001) A simple and testable model
for earthquake clustering. J Geophys Res 106:8699–
8711. doi:10.1029/2000JB900269
Console R, Murru M, Lombardi AM (2003) Refining
earthquake clustering models. J Geophys Res
108:2468. doi:10.1029/2002JB002130
Console R, Murru M, Catalli F (2006a) Physical and
stochastic models of earthquake clustering. Tectonophysics
417:141–153. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2005.05.052
Console R, Rhoades DA, Murru M, Evison FF,
Papadimitriou EE, Karakostas VG (2006b) Comparative
performance of time-invariant, long-range and
short-range forecasting models on the earthquake
catalogue of Greece. J Geophys Res 111:B09304.
doi:10.1029/2005JB004113
ConsoleR,Murru M, Catalli F, FalconeG(2007) Real time
forecasts through an earthquake clustering model constrained
by the rate-and-state constitutive law: comparison
with a purely stochastic ETAS model. Seismol
Res Lett 78:49–56. doi:10.1785/gssrl.78.1.49
Dieterich JH (1994) A constitutive law for rate of
earthquake production and its application to earthquake
clustering. J Geophys Res 99(18):2601–2618.
doi:10.1029/93JB02581
Felzer KR, Becker TW, Abercrombie RE, Ekstrom G,
Rice JR (2002) Triggering of the 1999 Mw 7.1 Hector
Mine earthquake by aftershocks of the 1992 Mw
7.3 Landers earthquake. J Geophys Res 107(B9):2190.
doi:10.1029/2001JB000911.2002
Frankel A (1995) Mapping seismic hazard in the central
and eastern United States. Seismol Res Lett 66:
8–21
Gerstenberger MC, Wiemer S, Jones LM, Reasenberg
PA (2005) Real-time forecasts of tomorrow’s earthquakes
in California. Nature 435:328–331. doi:10.1038/
nature03622
Gomberg J, Beeler NM, Blanpied ML (2000) On ratestate
and Coulomb failure models. J Geophys Res
105(14):7857–7872. doi:10.1029/1999JB900438
Harris RA, Simpson RW (1998) Suppression of large
earthquakes by stress shadows: a comparison of
Coulomb and rate-and-state failure. J Geophys Res
103:24439–24451. doi:10.1029/98JB00793
Hauksson E, Cocco M, Console R, Wiemer S (2007)
Advancing the frontiers of earthquake science. EOS
88(30):302
Helmestetter A, Shaw BE (2006) Relation between stress
heterogeneity and aftershock rate in the rate-andstate
model. J Geophys Res 111(B07304). doi:101029/
2005JB004077
Helmstetter A, Sornette D (2002) Subcritical and supercritical
regimes in epidemic models o earthquake
aftershocks. J Geophys Res 107(B10):2237. doi:10.
1029/2001JB001580
Helmstetter A, Sornette D (2003) Predictability in the
epidemic-type aftershock sequence model of interacting
triggered seismicity. J Geophys Res 108(B10):
2482. doi:10.1029/2003JB002485
Holliday JR, Nanjo KZ, Tiampo KF, Rundle JB, Turcotte
DL (2005) Earthquake forecasting and its verification.
Nonlinear Process Geophys 12:965–977
Imoto M (2007) Information gain of a model based
on multidisciplinary observations with correlations. J
Geophys Res 112:B05306. doi:10.1029/2006JB004662
INGV (2007) Italian seismic bulletin. Istituto Nazionale di
Geofisica e Vulcanologia. http://legacy.ingv.it/∼roma/
reti/rms/bollettino/index.php
Jordan TH (2006) Earthquake probability, brick by brick.
Seismol Res Lett 77(1):3–6. doi:10.1785/gssrl.77.1.3
Kagan YY (1991) Likelihood analysis of earthquake
catalogues. Geophys J Int 106:135–148. doi:10.1111/j.
1365-246X.1991.tb04607.x
Kagan YY (2002) Aftershock zone scaling. Bull Seismol
Soc Am 92(2):641–655. doi:10.1785/0120010172
Kagan YY (2007) On earthquake predictability measurement:
information score and error diagram. Pure
Appl Geophys 164:1947–1962. doi:10.1007/s00024-
007-0260-1
Kagan YY, Jackson DD (1995) New seismic gap hypothesis,
Five years later. J Geophys Res 100:3943–3959.
doi:10.1029/94JB03014
Kilb D, Gomberg J, Bodin P (2002) Aftershocks triggering
by complete Coulomb stress changes. J Geophys Res
107. doi:10.1029/2001JB0002002
King GCP, Cocco M (2001) Fault interaction by elastic
stress changes: new clues from earthquake sequences.
Adv Geophys 44:1–39
King GCP, Stein R, Lin J (1994) Static stress change and
the triggering of earthquakes. Bull Seismol Soc Am
84:935–953
Kossobokov VG (2006) Testing earthquake prediction
methods: the West Pacific short-term forecast
of earthquakes with magnitude MwHRV ≥ 5.8.
Tectonophysics 413(1–2):25–31. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.
2005.10.006
Ma L, Zhuang J (2001) Relative Quiescence within the
Jiashi Swarm in Xinjiang, China: an application of the
ETAS point process model. J Appl Probab 38:213–221
(Probability, Statistics and Seismology)
Marsan D (2006) Can coseismic stress variability suppress
seismicity shadows? Insights from a rate-andstate
friction model. J Geophys Res 111(B10):6305.
doi:10.1029/2005JB004060
Matthews MM, Reasenberg PP (1988) Statistical methods
for investigating quiescence and other temporal seismicity
patterns. Pure Appl Geophys 126:2–4, 357–372.
doi:10.1007/BF00879003
McGuire JJ, Boettcher MS, Jordan TH (2005) Foreshock
sequences and short-term earthquake predictability
on East Pacific Rise transform faults. Nature
434(7032):457–461, Correction-Nature 435(7041):528
Murru M, Console R, Falcone G (2008) Real-time earthquake
forecasting in Italy. Tectonophysics. doi:10.
1016/j.tecto.2008.090.010
Nostro C, Chiaraluce L, Cocco M, Baumont D, Scotti O
(2005) Coulomb stress changes caused by repeated
normal faulting earthquakes during the 1997 Umbria–
Marche (central Italy) seismic sequence. J Geophys
Res 110(B05S20). doi:10.1029/2004JB003386
Ogata Y (1983) Estimation of the parameters in the modified
Omori formula for aftershock frequencies by
the maximum likelihood procedure. J Phys Earth 31:
115–124
Ogata Y (1998) Space–time point-process models for
earthquake occurrences. Ann Inst Stat Math 50(2):
379–402. doi:10.1023/A:1003403601725
Ogata Y (2001) Increased probability of large earthquakes
near aftershock regions with relative quiescence.
J Geophys Res 106(B5):8729–8744. doi:10.
1029/2000JB900400
Ogata Y (2004a) Space-time model for regional seismicity
and detection of crustal stress changes. J Geophys Res
109(B3):B03308. doi:10.1029/2003JB002621
Ogata Y (2004b) Seismicity quiescence and activation in
western Japan associated with the 1944 and 1946 great
earthquakes near the Nankai trough. J Geophys Res
109(B4):B04305. doi:10.1029/2003JB002634
Ogata Y (2005) Synchronous seismicity changes in and
around the northern Japan preceding the 2003
Tokachi-oki earthquake of M8.0. J Geophys Res
110(B5):B08305. doi:10.1029/2004JB003323
Ogata Y (2006a) Monitoring of anomaly in the aftershock
sequence of the 2005 earthquake of M7.0
off coast of the western Fukuoka, Japan, by the
ETAS model. Geoph Res Lett 33(1):L01303. doi:10.
1029/2005GL024405
Ogata Y (2006b) Seismicity anomaly scenario prior to
the major recurrent earthquakes off the east coast
of Miyagi Prefecture, northern Japan. Tectonophysics
424:291–306. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2006.03.038
Ogata Y (2007) Seismicity and geodetic anomalies in
a wide area preceding the Niigata-Ken-Chuetsu earthquake of 23 October 2004, central Japan. J
Geophys Res 112:B10301. doi:10.1029/2006JB004697
Ogata Y, Katsura K (1993) Analysis of temporal and
spatial heterogeneity of magnitude frequency distribution
inferred from earthquake catalogues. Geophys
J Int 113:727–738. doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1993.
tb04663.x
Ogata Y, Katsura K (2006) Immediate and updated
forecasting of aftershock hazard. Geophys Res Lett
33(10):L10305. doi:10.1029/2006GL025888
Ogata Y, Zhuang J (2006) Space-time ETAS models
and an improved extension. Tectonophysics 413:13–
23. doi:10.1016/j.tecto.2005.10.016
Ogata Y, Jones LM, Toda S (2003) When and where
the aftershock activity was depressed: contrasting decay
patterns of the proximate large earthquakes in
southern California. J Geophys Res 108(B6):2318.
doi:10.1029/2002JB002009 (1-12)
Parsons T (2004) Recalculated probability of M ≥ 7
earthquakes beneath the Sea of Marmara, Turkey. J
Geophys Res 109:B05304. doi:10.129/2003JB002667
Parsons T, Dreger DS (2000) Static-stress impact of the
1992 landers earthquake sequence on nucleation andslip
at the site of the 1999 M = 7.1 Hector Mine
earthquake, southern California. Geophys Res Lett
27:1949–1952. doi:10.1029/1999GL011272
Rhoades DA, Evison FF (1989) On the reliability of precursors.
Ph Earth Plann Int 58:137–140. doi:10.1016/
0031-9201(89)90049-6
Rydelek PA, Sacks IS (1989) Testing the completeness
of earthquake catalogs and the hypothesis
of self-similarity. Nature 337:251–253. doi:10.1038/
337251a0
Saichev A, Sornette D (2006) Renormalization of branching
models of triggered seismicity from total to observable
seismicity. Eur Phys J B 51:443–459. doi:10.
1140/epjb/e2006-00242-6
Shi Y, Bolt B (1982) The standard error of the magnitude
frequency b value. Bull Seismol Soc Am 72:1677–
1687
Shi Y, Liu J, Zhang G (2001) An evaluation of Chinese
annual earthquake predictions, 1990–1998. J Appl
Probab 38A:222–231. doi:10.1239/jap/1085496604
Steacy S, Nalbant S, McCloskey J, Nostro C, Scotti O,
Beaumont D (2005) Onto what planes should
Coulomb stress perturbations be resolved? J Geophys
Res 110(B05S15). doi:10.1029/2004JB003356
Stein RS, Barka AA, Dieterich JH (1997) Progressive failure
on the North Anatolian fault since 1939 by earthquake
stress triggering. Geophys J Int 128:594–604.
doi:10.1111/j.1365-246X.1997.tb05321.x
S2 project (2005–2007) Evaluation of seismogenic potential
and probability of large earthquakes in Italy supported
for the years 2005–2007 by the Italian Department for
Civil Protection (DPC) and the Istituto Nazionale di
Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Toda S, Stein RS (2003) Toggling of seismicity by the
1997 Kagoshima earthquake couplet: a demonstration
of time-dependent stress transfer. J Geophys Res
109(B12, 2567). doi:10.1029/2003JB002527
Toda S, Stein RS, Richards-Dinger K, Bozkurt SB (2005)
Forecasting the evolution of seismicity in southern
California: animations built ion earthquakes stress
transfer. J Geophys Res 110:B05S16. doi:10.1029/
2004JB003415
Wiemer S (2001) A software package to analyze seismicity:
ZMAP. Seismol Res Lett 72:373–382
Wiemer S, Benoit J (1996) Mapping the b-value anomaly
at 100 km depth in Alaska and New Zealand
subduction zones. Geophys Res Lett 23:1557–1560.
doi:10.1029/96GL01233
Wiemer S, Wyss M (2000) Minimum magnitude of completeness
in earthquake catalogs: examples from
Alaska, the Western United States, and Japan. Bull
Seism Soc Am 90:859–869
Zechar JD, Jordan TH (2007) Testing alarm-based earthquake
predictions. Geophys J Int. doi:10.1111/j.1365-
246X.2007.03676.x
Zhuang J, Ogata Y, Vere-Jones D (2004) Analyzing earthquake
clustering features by using stochastic reconstruction.
J Geophys Res 109(B5):B05301. doi:10.
1029/2003JB002879
Zhuang J, Chang C, Ogata Y, Chen Y (2005) A study
on the background and clustering seismicity in the
Taiwan region by using point process models. J Geophys
Res 110(B5):B05S18. doi:10.1029/2004JB003157
Description
A stochastic triggering (epidemic) model
incorporating short-term clustering was fitted
to the instrumental earthquake catalog of Italy
for event with local magnitudes 2.6 and greater
to optimize its ability to retrospectively forecast
33 target events of magnitude 5.0 and greater that
occurred in the period 1990–2006.
incorporating short-term clustering was fitted
to the instrumental earthquake catalog of Italy
for event with local magnitudes 2.6 and greater
to optimize its ability to retrospectively forecast
33 target events of magnitude 5.0 and greater that
occurred in the period 1990–2006.
Type
article
File(s)
No Thumbnail Available
Name
Etas_Jose_2010.pdf
Description
A stochastic triggering (epidemic) model
Size
677.61 KB
Format
Adobe PDF
Checksum (MD5)
a4e08366b21b731895b4168dadd31d31