Options
Long-term forecast of eruption style and size at Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy)
Author(s)
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
3.5. Geologia e storia dei vulcani ed evoluzione dei magmi
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
/287(2009)
Publisher
Elsevier
Pages (printed)
265–276
Issued date
2009
Abstract
The Campi Flegrei caldera is an active and restless volcano in the densely inhabited Neapolitan area of
southern Italy. Because of the very high value (lives, properties, infrastructures, etc.) exposed to potential
volcanic hazards, it is one of the areas at highest volcanic risk on Earth. In such a situation we have made an
attempt to contribute to assessment of its volcanic hazards by providing a quantitative probabilistic longterm
forecast of style and size of the next eruption.
We have evaluated the most relevant physical parameters of the 22 explosive eruptions of the Campi Flegrei
caldera over the past 5 ka. This time span has been taken as the reference period for volcanic hazards
assessment on the basis of the volcanic and deformation history of the caldera. The evaluated parameters
include dispersal, volume and density of the pyroclastic deposits, volume of erupted magma, total erupted
mass, and eruption magnitude. The obtained results permit a size classification of the explosive eruptions,
which are grouped into three sizes: small, medium, and large. On the basis of the reconstructed eruption
dynamics, we have considered a type event(s) representative of each size class and hypothesized the style of
the next event. An effusive eruption will likely generate a dome or very small lava flows, while an explosive
event of any size very probably will produce particles fallout and flowage of pyroclastic density currents.
Using a Bayesian inference procedure, we have assigned a conditional probability of occurrence to each of
the eruption size classes. A small-size explosive eruption is the most likely event with a probability of about
60%; a large-size explosive eruption is the least likely event with a probability of about 4%; a medium-size
explosive eruption has a probability of occurrence of about 25%; an effusive eruption has about 11%
probability of occurrence.
southern Italy. Because of the very high value (lives, properties, infrastructures, etc.) exposed to potential
volcanic hazards, it is one of the areas at highest volcanic risk on Earth. In such a situation we have made an
attempt to contribute to assessment of its volcanic hazards by providing a quantitative probabilistic longterm
forecast of style and size of the next eruption.
We have evaluated the most relevant physical parameters of the 22 explosive eruptions of the Campi Flegrei
caldera over the past 5 ka. This time span has been taken as the reference period for volcanic hazards
assessment on the basis of the volcanic and deformation history of the caldera. The evaluated parameters
include dispersal, volume and density of the pyroclastic deposits, volume of erupted magma, total erupted
mass, and eruption magnitude. The obtained results permit a size classification of the explosive eruptions,
which are grouped into three sizes: small, medium, and large. On the basis of the reconstructed eruption
dynamics, we have considered a type event(s) representative of each size class and hypothesized the style of
the next event. An effusive eruption will likely generate a dome or very small lava flows, while an explosive
event of any size very probably will produce particles fallout and flowage of pyroclastic density currents.
Using a Bayesian inference procedure, we have assigned a conditional probability of occurrence to each of
the eruption size classes. A small-size explosive eruption is the most likely event with a probability of about
60%; a large-size explosive eruption is the least likely event with a probability of about 4%; a medium-size
explosive eruption has a probability of occurrence of about 25%; an effusive eruption has about 11%
probability of occurrence.
References
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Rome carbon-14 dates IX. Radiocarbon 13, 395–411.
Arienzo, I., Moretti, R., Civetta, L., Orsi, G., Papale, P., submitted for publication. The
feeding system of the Agnano-Monte Spina eruption (Campi Flegrei, Italy):
dragging the past into present activity and future scenarios. Chem. Geol.
Barberi, F., Corrado, G., Innocenti, F., Luongo, G., 1984. Phlegraean fields 1982–1984:
brief chronicle of a volcano emergency in a densely populated area. Bull. Volcanol.
47, 175–185.
Barberi, F., Carapezza, M., Innocenti, F., Luongo, G., Santacroce, R., 1989. The problem of
volcanic unrest: the Phlegraean Fields case history. Atti Conv. Lincei 80, 387–405.
Blong, R.J., 1984. Volcanic hazards: a sourcebook of the effects of eruptions. Academic
Press, Sydney.
Costa, A., Dell'Erba, F., Di Vito, M., Isaia, R., Macedonio, G., Orsi, G., Pfeiffer, T., 2009.
Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). Bull. Volcanol.
71, 259–273.
Crandell, D.R., Booth, B., Kusumadinata, D., Shimozuru, D., Walker, G.P.L., Westerdamp,
D., 1984. Source Book for Volcanic-Hazards Zonation. UNESCO, Paris.
D'Antonio, M., Civetta, L., Orsi, G., Pappalardo, L., Piochi, M., Carandente, A., de Vita, S., Di
Vito, M.A., Isaia, R., Southon, J., 1999. The present state of the magmatic system of
the Campi Flegrei caldera based on the reconstruction of its behaviour in the past
12 ka. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 91, 247–268.
D'Antonio, M., Tonarini, S., Arienzo, I., Civetta, L., Di Renzo, V., 2007. Components and
processes in the magma genesis of the Phlegrean Volcanic District (Southern Italy).
In: Beccaluva, L., Bianchini, G., Wilson, M. (Eds.), Cenozoic volcanism in the
Mediterranean area: GSA, Sp. Pap. 418, Boulder, pp. 203–220.
D'Oriano, C., Poggianti, E., Bertagnini, A., Cioni, R., Landi, P., Polacci, M., Rosi, M., 2005.
Changes in eruptive style during the A.D. 1538 Monte Nuovo eruption (Phlegrean
Fields, Italy): the role of syn-eruptive crystallization. Bull. Volcanol. 67, 601–621.
Dell'Erba, F., 2003. Definizione di parametric fisici di alcune eruzioni esplosive della
caldera dei Campi Flegrei negli ultimi 15 ka: implicazioni per la valutazione della
pericolosità vulcanica. PhD Thesis, University of Bari, Italy.
Dellino, P., Isaia, R., La Volpe, L., Orsi, G., 2001. Statistical analysis of textural data from
complex pyroclastic sequences: implication for fragmentation processes of the
Agnano–Monte Spina Tephra (4.1 ka), Phlegraean Fields southern Italy. Bull.
Volcanol. 63, 443–461.
Dellino, P., Isaia, R., La Volpe, L., Orsi, G., 2004. Interaction between particles transported
by fallout and surge in the deposits of the Agnano-Monte Spina eruption (Campi
Flegrei, Southern Italy). J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 133, 193–210.
de Vita, S., Orsi, G., Civetta, L., Carandente, A., D'Antonio, M., Di Cesare, T., Di Vito, M.,
Fisher, R.V., Isaia, R., Marotta, E., Ort, M., Pappalardo, L., Southon, J., 1999. The
Agnano–Monte Spina eruption in the densely populated, restless Campi Flegrei
caldera (Italy). J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 91, 269–301.
Di Vito, M.A., Isaia, R., Orsi, G., Southon, J., de Vita, S., D'antonio, M., Pappalardo, L.,
Piochi, M., 1999. Volcanism and deformation in the past 12 ka at the Campi Flegrei
caldera (Italy). J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 91, 221–246.
Di Vito, M.A., Arienzo, I., Braia, G., Civetta, L., D’Antonio, M., Di Renzo, V., Orsi, G.,
submitted for publication. The Averno 2 fissure eruption: a recent small-size
explosive event at the Campi Flegrei caldera. Bull. Volcanol.
Fierstein, J., Nathenson, M., 1992. Another look at the calculation of fallout tephra
volumes. Bull. Volcanol. 54, 156–167.
Fierstein, J., Nathenson, M., 1993. Reply to comment by WI Rose. Bull. Volcanol. 55,
156–378.
Gelman, A., Carlin, J.B., Stern, H.S., Rubin, D.B., 1995. Bayesian data analysis. CRC, Boca
Raton, Florida.
Isaia, R., D'Antonio, M., Dell'Erba, F., Di Vito, M., Orsi, G., 2004. The Astroni volcano: the
only example of close eruptions within the same vent area in the recent history of
the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 133, 171–192.
Jurado-Chichay, Z., Walker, G.P.L., 2001. The intensity and magnitude of the Mangaone
subgroup plinian eruptions from Okataina Volcanic Centre, New Zealand. J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res. 111, 219–237.
Legros, F., 2000. Minimum volume of tephra fallout deposit estimated from a single
isopach. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 96, 25–32.
Mangiacapra, A., Moretti, R., Rutherford, M., Civetta, L., Orsi, G., Papale, P., 2008. The
deep magmatic system of the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35,
L21304.
Marti, J., Ernst, G.G.J., 2005. Volcanoes and the environment. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge.
Marzocchella, A., 1998. Tutela Archelogica e Preistoria nella Pianura Campana. In: Guzzo,
P.G., Peroni, R. (Eds.), Archeologia e Vulcanologia in Campania. Arte Tipografica,
Naples, pp. 97–133.
Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., Gasparini, P., Newhall, C., Boschi, E., 2004. Quantifying
probabilities of volcanic events: the example of volcanic hazard at Mt. Vesuvius.
J. Geophys. Res. 109, B11201. Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., Selva, J., 2008. BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and shortterm
eruption forecasting. Bull. Volcanol. 70, 623–632.
Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., Selva J., submitted for publication. BET VH: a probabilistic tool
for long-time volcanic hazard assessment. Bull. Volcanol.
Marzocchi, W., Woo, G., 2007. Probabilistic eruption forecasting and the call for an
evacuation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L22310.
Marzocchi, W., Woo, G., 2009. Principles of volcanic risk metrics: theory and the case
study of Mt. Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei (Italy). J. Geophys. Res. 114, B03213.
Newhall, C.G., Self, S., 1982. The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI): an estimate of
explosive magnitude for historical volcanism. J. Geophys. Res. 87, 1231–1238.
Orsi, G., Gallo, G., Zanchi, A., 1991. Simple-shearing block resurgence in caldera
depressions. Amodel fromPantelleria and Ischia. J. Volcanol.Geotherm. Res. 47, 1–11.
Orsi, G., Civetta, L., Del Gaudio, C., de Vita, S., Di Vito, M.A., Isaia, R., Petrazzuoli, S.M.,
Ricciardi, G., Ricco, C., 1999a. Short-term ground deformations and seismicity in the
nested Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy): an example of active block-resurgence in a
densely populated area. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 91, 415–451.
Orsi, G., Petrazzuoli, S., Wohletz, K., 1999b. Mechanical and thermo-fluid behaviour
during unrest episode at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). J. Volcanol. Geotherm.
Res. 91, 453–470.
Orsi, G., D'Antonio, M., de Vita, S., Gallo, G., 1992. The Neapolitan Yellow Tuff, a largemagnitude
trachytic phreatoplinian eruption: eruptive dynamics, magma withdrawal
and caldera collapse. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 53, 275–287.
Orsi, G., de Vita, S., Di Vito, M., 1996. The restless, resurgent Campi Flegrei nested caldera
(Italy): constraints on its evolution and configuration. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res.
74, 179–214.
Orsi, G., de Vita, S., Di Vito, M., Isaia, R., Nave, R., Heiken, G., 2003. Facing volcanic and
related hazards in the Neapolitan area. In: Heiken, G., Fakundiny, R., Sutter, J. (Eds.),
Earth Sciences in the Cities: A Reader: AGU Sp. Publ. Series 56, Washington, D. C.,
pp. 121–170.
Orsi, G., Di Vito, M.A., Isaia, R., 2004. Volcanic hazard assessment at the restless Campi
Flegrei caldera. Bull. Volcanol. 66, 514–530.
Pyle, D.M., 1989. The thickness, volume and grainsize of tephra fall deposits. Bull.
Volcanol. 51, 1–15.
Pyle, D.M., 1995. Assessment of the minimum volume of tephra fall deposits. J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res. 69, 379–382.
Pyle, D.M., 2000. Sizes of volcanic eruptions. In: Sigurdsson, H., Houghton, B.F., McNutt,
S.R., Rymer, H., Stix, J. (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Volcanoes. Academic Press, San Diego,
pp. 263–269. Ricco, C., Aquino, I., Borgstrom, S.E., Del Gaudio, C., 2007. A study of tilt change recorded
from July to October 2006 at the Phlegraean Fields (Naples, Italy). Ann. Geophys. 50
(5), 661–674.
Romano, C., Giordano, D., Papale, P., Mincione, V., Dingwell, D.B., Rosi, M., 2003. The dry
and hydrous viscosities of alkaline melts from Vesuvius and Phlegrean Fields.
Chem. Geol. 202, 23–38.
Selva J., Costa, A., Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., submitted for publication-a. BET VH: Longterm
hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei, Italy, Bull. Volcanol.
Selva, J., Orsi, G., Di Vito, M., Marzocchi, W., Sandri L., submitted for publication-b.
Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy.
J. Geophys. Res.
Sigurdsson, H., Houghton, B.F., McNutt, S.R., Rymer, H., Stix, J., 2000. Encyclopedia of
volcanoes. Academic Press, San Diego.
Simkin, T., Siebert, L., 1994. Volcanoes of the world: a regional directory, gazetteer, and
chronology of volcanism during the last 10, 000 years (second edition).
Smithsonian Institution and Geoscience Press Inc., Tucson.
Tilling, R.I., 1989a. Volcanic hazards and their mitigation: progress and problems. Rev.
Geophys. 27, 237–269.
Tilling, R.I. (Ed.), 1989b. Volcanic Hazards: Short Course in Geology 1. InAGU,
Washington D.C.. A Chinese-language version is available in:.Tilling, R.I., 1990b.
J. Seismology (Beijing, China) 3, 2 (39), 1–46 A Spanish-language version is available
in:.Tilling, R.I., 1993b. Los Peligros Volcánicos. World Organization of Volcano
Observatories (WOVO-IAVCEI). (Translation by Ing. Bernardo Beate, Ecuador).
Tilling, R.I., 2005. Volcano hazards. In: Marti, J., Ernst, G.G.J. (Eds.), Volcanoes and the
Environment. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 55–89.
Tonarini, S., D'Antonio, M., Di Vito, M.A., Orsi, G., Carandente, A., 2009. Geochemical and
B-Sr–Nd isotopic evidence for mingling and mixing processes in the magmatic
system that fed the Astroni volcano (4.1–3.8 ka) within the Campi Flegrei caldera
(Southern Italy). Lithos 107, 135–151.
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87–97.
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Seismic reflections reveal a massive melt layer under Campi Flegrei volcanic field.
Geophys. Res. Lett. 35, L12306.
Rome carbon-14 dates IX. Radiocarbon 13, 395–411.
Arienzo, I., Moretti, R., Civetta, L., Orsi, G., Papale, P., submitted for publication. The
feeding system of the Agnano-Monte Spina eruption (Campi Flegrei, Italy):
dragging the past into present activity and future scenarios. Chem. Geol.
Barberi, F., Corrado, G., Innocenti, F., Luongo, G., 1984. Phlegraean fields 1982–1984:
brief chronicle of a volcano emergency in a densely populated area. Bull. Volcanol.
47, 175–185.
Barberi, F., Carapezza, M., Innocenti, F., Luongo, G., Santacroce, R., 1989. The problem of
volcanic unrest: the Phlegraean Fields case history. Atti Conv. Lincei 80, 387–405.
Blong, R.J., 1984. Volcanic hazards: a sourcebook of the effects of eruptions. Academic
Press, Sydney.
Costa, A., Dell'Erba, F., Di Vito, M., Isaia, R., Macedonio, G., Orsi, G., Pfeiffer, T., 2009.
Tephra fallout hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). Bull. Volcanol.
71, 259–273.
Crandell, D.R., Booth, B., Kusumadinata, D., Shimozuru, D., Walker, G.P.L., Westerdamp,
D., 1984. Source Book for Volcanic-Hazards Zonation. UNESCO, Paris.
D'Antonio, M., Civetta, L., Orsi, G., Pappalardo, L., Piochi, M., Carandente, A., de Vita, S., Di
Vito, M.A., Isaia, R., Southon, J., 1999. The present state of the magmatic system of
the Campi Flegrei caldera based on the reconstruction of its behaviour in the past
12 ka. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 91, 247–268.
D'Antonio, M., Tonarini, S., Arienzo, I., Civetta, L., Di Renzo, V., 2007. Components and
processes in the magma genesis of the Phlegrean Volcanic District (Southern Italy).
In: Beccaluva, L., Bianchini, G., Wilson, M. (Eds.), Cenozoic volcanism in the
Mediterranean area: GSA, Sp. Pap. 418, Boulder, pp. 203–220.
D'Oriano, C., Poggianti, E., Bertagnini, A., Cioni, R., Landi, P., Polacci, M., Rosi, M., 2005.
Changes in eruptive style during the A.D. 1538 Monte Nuovo eruption (Phlegrean
Fields, Italy): the role of syn-eruptive crystallization. Bull. Volcanol. 67, 601–621.
Dell'Erba, F., 2003. Definizione di parametric fisici di alcune eruzioni esplosive della
caldera dei Campi Flegrei negli ultimi 15 ka: implicazioni per la valutazione della
pericolosità vulcanica. PhD Thesis, University of Bari, Italy.
Dellino, P., Isaia, R., La Volpe, L., Orsi, G., 2001. Statistical analysis of textural data from
complex pyroclastic sequences: implication for fragmentation processes of the
Agnano–Monte Spina Tephra (4.1 ka), Phlegraean Fields southern Italy. Bull.
Volcanol. 63, 443–461.
Dellino, P., Isaia, R., La Volpe, L., Orsi, G., 2004. Interaction between particles transported
by fallout and surge in the deposits of the Agnano-Monte Spina eruption (Campi
Flegrei, Southern Italy). J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 133, 193–210.
de Vita, S., Orsi, G., Civetta, L., Carandente, A., D'Antonio, M., Di Cesare, T., Di Vito, M.,
Fisher, R.V., Isaia, R., Marotta, E., Ort, M., Pappalardo, L., Southon, J., 1999. The
Agnano–Monte Spina eruption in the densely populated, restless Campi Flegrei
caldera (Italy). J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 91, 269–301.
Di Vito, M.A., Isaia, R., Orsi, G., Southon, J., de Vita, S., D'antonio, M., Pappalardo, L.,
Piochi, M., 1999. Volcanism and deformation in the past 12 ka at the Campi Flegrei
caldera (Italy). J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 91, 221–246.
Di Vito, M.A., Arienzo, I., Braia, G., Civetta, L., D’Antonio, M., Di Renzo, V., Orsi, G.,
submitted for publication. The Averno 2 fissure eruption: a recent small-size
explosive event at the Campi Flegrei caldera. Bull. Volcanol.
Fierstein, J., Nathenson, M., 1992. Another look at the calculation of fallout tephra
volumes. Bull. Volcanol. 54, 156–167.
Fierstein, J., Nathenson, M., 1993. Reply to comment by WI Rose. Bull. Volcanol. 55,
156–378.
Gelman, A., Carlin, J.B., Stern, H.S., Rubin, D.B., 1995. Bayesian data analysis. CRC, Boca
Raton, Florida.
Isaia, R., D'Antonio, M., Dell'Erba, F., Di Vito, M., Orsi, G., 2004. The Astroni volcano: the
only example of close eruptions within the same vent area in the recent history of
the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 133, 171–192.
Jurado-Chichay, Z., Walker, G.P.L., 2001. The intensity and magnitude of the Mangaone
subgroup plinian eruptions from Okataina Volcanic Centre, New Zealand. J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res. 111, 219–237.
Legros, F., 2000. Minimum volume of tephra fallout deposit estimated from a single
isopach. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 96, 25–32.
Mangiacapra, A., Moretti, R., Rutherford, M., Civetta, L., Orsi, G., Papale, P., 2008. The
deep magmatic system of the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). J. Geophys. Res. Lett. 35,
L21304.
Marti, J., Ernst, G.G.J., 2005. Volcanoes and the environment. Cambridge University
Press, Cambridge.
Marzocchella, A., 1998. Tutela Archelogica e Preistoria nella Pianura Campana. In: Guzzo,
P.G., Peroni, R. (Eds.), Archeologia e Vulcanologia in Campania. Arte Tipografica,
Naples, pp. 97–133.
Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., Gasparini, P., Newhall, C., Boschi, E., 2004. Quantifying
probabilities of volcanic events: the example of volcanic hazard at Mt. Vesuvius.
J. Geophys. Res. 109, B11201. Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., Selva, J., 2008. BET_EF: a probabilistic tool for long- and shortterm
eruption forecasting. Bull. Volcanol. 70, 623–632.
Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., Selva J., submitted for publication. BET VH: a probabilistic tool
for long-time volcanic hazard assessment. Bull. Volcanol.
Marzocchi, W., Woo, G., 2007. Probabilistic eruption forecasting and the call for an
evacuation. Geophys. Res. Lett. 34, L22310.
Marzocchi, W., Woo, G., 2009. Principles of volcanic risk metrics: theory and the case
study of Mt. Vesuvius and Campi Flegrei (Italy). J. Geophys. Res. 114, B03213.
Newhall, C.G., Self, S., 1982. The Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI): an estimate of
explosive magnitude for historical volcanism. J. Geophys. Res. 87, 1231–1238.
Orsi, G., Gallo, G., Zanchi, A., 1991. Simple-shearing block resurgence in caldera
depressions. Amodel fromPantelleria and Ischia. J. Volcanol.Geotherm. Res. 47, 1–11.
Orsi, G., Civetta, L., Del Gaudio, C., de Vita, S., Di Vito, M.A., Isaia, R., Petrazzuoli, S.M.,
Ricciardi, G., Ricco, C., 1999a. Short-term ground deformations and seismicity in the
nested Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy): an example of active block-resurgence in a
densely populated area. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 91, 415–451.
Orsi, G., Petrazzuoli, S., Wohletz, K., 1999b. Mechanical and thermo-fluid behaviour
during unrest episode at the Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy). J. Volcanol. Geotherm.
Res. 91, 453–470.
Orsi, G., D'Antonio, M., de Vita, S., Gallo, G., 1992. The Neapolitan Yellow Tuff, a largemagnitude
trachytic phreatoplinian eruption: eruptive dynamics, magma withdrawal
and caldera collapse. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 53, 275–287.
Orsi, G., de Vita, S., Di Vito, M., 1996. The restless, resurgent Campi Flegrei nested caldera
(Italy): constraints on its evolution and configuration. J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res.
74, 179–214.
Orsi, G., de Vita, S., Di Vito, M., Isaia, R., Nave, R., Heiken, G., 2003. Facing volcanic and
related hazards in the Neapolitan area. In: Heiken, G., Fakundiny, R., Sutter, J. (Eds.),
Earth Sciences in the Cities: A Reader: AGU Sp. Publ. Series 56, Washington, D. C.,
pp. 121–170.
Orsi, G., Di Vito, M.A., Isaia, R., 2004. Volcanic hazard assessment at the restless Campi
Flegrei caldera. Bull. Volcanol. 66, 514–530.
Pyle, D.M., 1989. The thickness, volume and grainsize of tephra fall deposits. Bull.
Volcanol. 51, 1–15.
Pyle, D.M., 1995. Assessment of the minimum volume of tephra fall deposits. J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res. 69, 379–382.
Pyle, D.M., 2000. Sizes of volcanic eruptions. In: Sigurdsson, H., Houghton, B.F., McNutt,
S.R., Rymer, H., Stix, J. (Eds.), Encyclopedia of Volcanoes. Academic Press, San Diego,
pp. 263–269. Ricco, C., Aquino, I., Borgstrom, S.E., Del Gaudio, C., 2007. A study of tilt change recorded
from July to October 2006 at the Phlegraean Fields (Naples, Italy). Ann. Geophys. 50
(5), 661–674.
Romano, C., Giordano, D., Papale, P., Mincione, V., Dingwell, D.B., Rosi, M., 2003. The dry
and hydrous viscosities of alkaline melts from Vesuvius and Phlegrean Fields.
Chem. Geol. 202, 23–38.
Selva J., Costa, A., Marzocchi, W., Sandri, L., submitted for publication-a. BET VH: Longterm
hazard from tephra fallout at Campi Flegrei, Italy, Bull. Volcanol.
Selva, J., Orsi, G., Di Vito, M., Marzocchi, W., Sandri L., submitted for publication-b.
Probability hazard map for future vent opening at the Campi Flegrei caldera, Italy.
J. Geophys. Res.
Sigurdsson, H., Houghton, B.F., McNutt, S.R., Rymer, H., Stix, J., 2000. Encyclopedia of
volcanoes. Academic Press, San Diego.
Simkin, T., Siebert, L., 1994. Volcanoes of the world: a regional directory, gazetteer, and
chronology of volcanism during the last 10, 000 years (second edition).
Smithsonian Institution and Geoscience Press Inc., Tucson.
Tilling, R.I., 1989a. Volcanic hazards and their mitigation: progress and problems. Rev.
Geophys. 27, 237–269.
Tilling, R.I. (Ed.), 1989b. Volcanic Hazards: Short Course in Geology 1. InAGU,
Washington D.C.. A Chinese-language version is available in:.Tilling, R.I., 1990b.
J. Seismology (Beijing, China) 3, 2 (39), 1–46 A Spanish-language version is available
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