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Power Laws Governing Historical Earthquakes in the Apennine Chain (Southern Italy)
Author(s)
Language
English
Status
Published
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
34
Publisher
Kluwer
Pages (printed)
263-278
Issued date
2005
Alternative Location
Abstract
Rank-ordering analysis is applied to the intertimes between seismic events recorded in the Apennine belt between 40–42° N and 14–16° E from the 15th century onwards. It shows a power law capable of governing the intertimes between 1529 and 368 months and another power law which approximates a random simulation, for the intertimes shorter than 368 months. Only the first power law allows the computation of the return period of major events. Earthquakes with the same energy that are aligned according to different power laws imply the presence of two different populations, indicating, in turn, that the physics of seismic phenomena in the region examined is not straightforward, that the stress is probably not unidirectional and that it acts on a non-isotropic medium. The most probable estimated intertime value for the next event is found to be equal to 60 ± 20 years.
References
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Boschi, E., Guidoboni, E., Ferrari, G., Mariotti, D., Valensise, G., and Gasperini, P. (eds): 2000, Catalogue of Strong Italian Earthquakes from 461 B.C. to 1997 (CFTI3), Annali di Geofisica 43, 843–868 and CD-ROM.
Branno, A., Esposito, E., Luongo, G., Marturano, A., Porfido, S., and Rinaldis, V.: 1986, The largest earthquakes of the Apennines, southern Italy. Proc. of the Int. Symposium on ‘‘Engineering Geology Problems in Seismic Areas’’. AIGI-IAEG, Bari, Italy, 13–19 April 1986. 4, 3–14.
Camassi, R. and Stucchi, M.:1997, NT4.1, Un catalogo parametrico dei terremoti di area italiana al di sopra della soglia del danno. GNDT Milan, pp.99. http://emidius.mi.ingv.it
Capuano, P., Gasparini P., Peronaci, M., and Scarpa, R.: 1992, Strong ground motion and source parameters for earthquakes in Apennines, Italy, Earthquake Spectra 8, 529–554.
Caputo, M., Keilis-Borok, V. I., Kronrod, T. L., Molchan, G. M., Panza, G., Piva, A.,
Podgaetskaja, V. M., and Postpischl, D.: 1973, Models of earthquake occurrence and
isoseismals in Italy, Annali di Geofisica, 26, 421–444.
CPTI Working Group (ING, GNDT, SGA, SSN): 1999, Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani (Editrice Compositori, Bologna), 88 pp.
Cubellis, E., Ereditato, D., Ferri, M., Luongo, G., Murino, P., Obrizzo, F., and Vetrella, S.: 1995, Geodinamica dell’Italia Meridionale e implicazioni nella tettonica del Matese, Studi Geologici Camerti Special Volume 1995/2, 167–181.
Deemer, W. L. and Votaw, D. F.: 1955, Estimation of parameters of truncated or censored exponential distributions, Ann. Math. Stat. 26, 498–504.
De Falco, I., Iazzetta, A., Luongo, G., Mazzarella, A., and Tarantino, E.: 2000, The seismicity in the Southern Tyrrhenian Area and its Neural Forecasting, Pure Appl. Geoph. 157, 343–355.
De Vivo, B., Dietrich, D., Guerra, I., Iannaccone, G., Luongo, G., Scandone, P., Scarpa, R., and Turco, E.: 1979, Carta sismotettonica preliminare dell’Appennino Meridionale. CNR, PFG, Publication no.166. Giannini (Ed.), Naples.
Ekstrom, G.: 1994, Teleseismic analysis of the 1990 and 1991 earthquakes near Potenza, Annali di Geofisica 37, 1591–1599.
Epstein, B. and Sobel, M.: 1953, Life testing. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 48, 486–502.
Figliuolo, B.: 1988, Il terremoto del 1456, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Ist. Italiano Studi Filosofici: Storia e Scienze della Terra, (Altavilla Silentina 1988), 2.
Figliuolo, B. and Marturano, A.: 1996, Il terremoto del 1466,Rassegna Storica Salernitana, Pietro Laveglia Editore.
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Finetti, I. and Del Ben, A.: 1986, Geophysical study of the Tyrrhenian opening, Boll. Geof. Teor. Appl. 28, 75–155.
Frepoli, A. and Amato, A.: 2000, Spatial variation in stresses in peninsular Italy and Sicily from background seismicity, Tectonophysics 317, 109–124.
Gasparini, C., Iannaccone G., and Scarpa, R.: 1985, Fault plane solutions and seismic activity of the Italian peninsula, Tectonophysics 117, 59–78.
Gasperini, P. and Ferrari, G.: 2000, Deriving numerical estimates from descriptive information: the computation of earthquake parameters, Annali di Geofisica 43, 729–746.
Giardini, D. (ed): 1999, The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment (GSHAP) 1992–1999, Annali di Geofisica Special Issue, 42.
Giardini, D. and Basham, P. (eds): 1993, Technical Planning Volume of the ILP’s Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program, Annali di Geofisica Special Issue, 36. Goes, S. D. B.: 1996, Irregular recurrence of large earthquakes: an analysis of historic and paleoseismic catalogs, J. Geophys. Res. 101, 5739–5749.
Habermann, R. E.: 1983, Teleseismic detection in the Aleutian Island Arc, J. Geophys. Res. 88, 5056–5064.
Iacurto, O., Paciello, A., Musmeci, F., and Basili, M.: 1981, On the completeness analysis of historical catalogues. Commissione CNEN-ENEL ‘‘Contributi alla caratterizzazione della sismicita` del territorio italiano, Udine, 313–323.
Luongo, G., Cubellis, E., Obrizzo, F., and Petrazzuoli, S.: 1991, A physical model for the origin of volcanism of the Tyrrhenian margin: the case of Neapolitan area, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 48, 173–185.
Luongo, G., Obrizzo, F., Hartl, P., Thiel, K. H., Becker, D., Reich, M., Bles, J. L., Sauret, B., Murino, P., Ferri, M., Castellano, L., Russo, L., Fanelli, A., Rufino, A., and Esposito, S.: 1996, Earthquakes prediction in tectonic active areas using space techniques. In: A. Ghazi and M. Yeroyami (eds), ‘‘Seismic risk in the European Union’’, European Commission 1, 79–106.
Magri, G. and Molin, D.: 1985, The earthquake of December 1456 in Central-Southern Italy. In: Atlas of Isoseismal Maps of Italian Earthquakes. CNR, PFG, Quad. Ric. Sci., 114–2A, 20–23.
Marturano, A. and Rinaldis, V.: 1996, Seismic history and consistent seismicity: evidence from Southern Italy, Natural Hazard 14, 11–21.
Mazzarella, A. and Tranfaglia, G.: 2000, The fractal characterisation of geophysical measuring networks and its implications for an optimal location of additive stations: an application to a rain-gauge network, Theor. Appl. Climatol. 65, 157–163.
McKenzie, D. P.: 1972, Active tectonics of the Mediterranean region, Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc. 30, 109–185.
Meletti, C., Patacca, E., and Scandone, P.: 2000, Construction of a seismotectonic model: the case of Italy, Pure Appl. Geophys. 157, 11–35.
Milano, G., Vilardo, G., and Luongo, G.: 1994, Continental collision and basin opening in Southern Italy: a new plate subduction in the Tyrrhenian Sea? Tectonophysics 230, 249–264.
Molchan, G. M., Kronrod, T. L., and Panza, G. F.: 1997, Multiscale seismicity model for seismic risk, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 87, 1220–1229.
Mulargia, F. and Tinti, S. : 1985, Seismic sample areas defined from incomplete catalogues: an applications to the Italian Territory, Phys. Eart. Planet. Int. 40, 273–300.
OPC - Ordinanza del Presidente del Consiglio dei Ministri 20 marzo 2003. Primi elementi in materia di criteri generali per la classificazione sismica del territorio nazionale e di normative tecniche per le costrizioni in zona sismica (ordinanza n. 3274).
Panza, F. and Romanelli, F.: 2001, Beno Gutenberg contribution to seismic hazard assessment and recent progress in the European–Mediterranean region, Earth-Sci. Rev. 55, 165–180.
Patacca, E. and Scandone, P.: 1987, Tectonic evolution of the outer margin of the Apennines and related foredeep system. In: Boriani et al. (eds), The Lithosphere in Italy advances in earth science research, Accademia dei Lincei.
Patacca, E., Sartori, R., and Scandone, P.: 1990, Tyrrhenian Basin and Apenninic Arcs: kinematics relations since Late Tortonian time, Mem Soc. Geol. It. 45, 425–451.
Peresan, A., Costa, G., and Panza, G. F.: 1999, Seismotectonic model and CN earthquake prediction in Italy, Pure Appl. Geophys. 154, 281–306.
Argnani, A.: 2000, The Southern Tyrrhenian subduction system: recent evolution and
neotectonic implications, Annali di Geofisica 43, 585–607.
Bak, P. and Tang, C.: 1989, Earthquake as a self-organized critical phenomenon, J. Geophys. Res. 94, 15635–15637.
Basili, A., Favali, P., Scalera, G., and Smriglio, G.: 1990, An attempt to evaluate seismic hazard in Central Italy, Natural Hazards 3, 31–47.
Boschi, E., Gasperini, P., and Mulargia, F.: 1995, Forecasting where larger crustal earthquakes are likely to occur in Italy in the near future, Bull. Seism. Soc. Am. 85, 1475–1482.
Boschi, E., Guidoboni, E., Ferrari, G., Mariotti, D., Valensise, G., and Gasperini, P. (eds): 2000, Catalogue of Strong Italian Earthquakes from 461 B.C. to 1997 (CFTI3), Annali di Geofisica 43, 843–868 and CD-ROM.
Branno, A., Esposito, E., Luongo, G., Marturano, A., Porfido, S., and Rinaldis, V.: 1986, The largest earthquakes of the Apennines, southern Italy. Proc. of the Int. Symposium on ‘‘Engineering Geology Problems in Seismic Areas’’. AIGI-IAEG, Bari, Italy, 13–19 April 1986. 4, 3–14.
Camassi, R. and Stucchi, M.:1997, NT4.1, Un catalogo parametrico dei terremoti di area italiana al di sopra della soglia del danno. GNDT Milan, pp.99. http://emidius.mi.ingv.it
Capuano, P., Gasparini P., Peronaci, M., and Scarpa, R.: 1992, Strong ground motion and source parameters for earthquakes in Apennines, Italy, Earthquake Spectra 8, 529–554.
Caputo, M., Keilis-Borok, V. I., Kronrod, T. L., Molchan, G. M., Panza, G., Piva, A.,
Podgaetskaja, V. M., and Postpischl, D.: 1973, Models of earthquake occurrence and
isoseismals in Italy, Annali di Geofisica, 26, 421–444.
CPTI Working Group (ING, GNDT, SGA, SSN): 1999, Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani (Editrice Compositori, Bologna), 88 pp.
Cubellis, E., Ereditato, D., Ferri, M., Luongo, G., Murino, P., Obrizzo, F., and Vetrella, S.: 1995, Geodinamica dell’Italia Meridionale e implicazioni nella tettonica del Matese, Studi Geologici Camerti Special Volume 1995/2, 167–181.
Deemer, W. L. and Votaw, D. F.: 1955, Estimation of parameters of truncated or censored exponential distributions, Ann. Math. Stat. 26, 498–504.
De Falco, I., Iazzetta, A., Luongo, G., Mazzarella, A., and Tarantino, E.: 2000, The seismicity in the Southern Tyrrhenian Area and its Neural Forecasting, Pure Appl. Geoph. 157, 343–355.
De Vivo, B., Dietrich, D., Guerra, I., Iannaccone, G., Luongo, G., Scandone, P., Scarpa, R., and Turco, E.: 1979, Carta sismotettonica preliminare dell’Appennino Meridionale. CNR, PFG, Publication no.166. Giannini (Ed.), Naples.
Ekstrom, G.: 1994, Teleseismic analysis of the 1990 and 1991 earthquakes near Potenza, Annali di Geofisica 37, 1591–1599.
Epstein, B. and Sobel, M.: 1953, Life testing. J. Am. Stat. Assoc. 48, 486–502.
Figliuolo, B.: 1988, Il terremoto del 1456, Osservatorio Vesuviano, Ist. Italiano Studi Filosofici: Storia e Scienze della Terra, (Altavilla Silentina 1988), 2.
Figliuolo, B. and Marturano, A.: 1996, Il terremoto del 1466,Rassegna Storica Salernitana, Pietro Laveglia Editore.
Figliuolo, B. and Marturano, A.: 2002, Terremoti in Italia Meridionale dal IX all’XI secolo. In: ‘‘Contributi per la storia dei terremoti nel Bacino del Mediterraneo, Secoli V-VIII’’ a cura di A. Marturano. Collana di Storia e Scienze della Terra, INGV-Osservatorio Vesuviano, IISF. Laveglia, Nocera Inferiore.
Finetti, I. and Del Ben, A.: 1986, Geophysical study of the Tyrrhenian opening, Boll. Geof. Teor. Appl. 28, 75–155.
Frepoli, A. and Amato, A.: 2000, Spatial variation in stresses in peninsular Italy and Sicily from background seismicity, Tectonophysics 317, 109–124.
Gasparini, C., Iannaccone G., and Scarpa, R.: 1985, Fault plane solutions and seismic activity of the Italian peninsula, Tectonophysics 117, 59–78.
Gasperini, P. and Ferrari, G.: 2000, Deriving numerical estimates from descriptive information: the computation of earthquake parameters, Annali di Geofisica 43, 729–746.
Giardini, D. (ed): 1999, The Global Seismic Hazard Assessment (GSHAP) 1992–1999, Annali di Geofisica Special Issue, 42.
Giardini, D. and Basham, P. (eds): 1993, Technical Planning Volume of the ILP’s Global Seismic Hazard Assessment Program, Annali di Geofisica Special Issue, 36. Goes, S. D. B.: 1996, Irregular recurrence of large earthquakes: an analysis of historic and paleoseismic catalogs, J. Geophys. Res. 101, 5739–5749.
Habermann, R. E.: 1983, Teleseismic detection in the Aleutian Island Arc, J. Geophys. Res. 88, 5056–5064.
Iacurto, O., Paciello, A., Musmeci, F., and Basili, M.: 1981, On the completeness analysis of historical catalogues. Commissione CNEN-ENEL ‘‘Contributi alla caratterizzazione della sismicita` del territorio italiano, Udine, 313–323.
Luongo, G., Cubellis, E., Obrizzo, F., and Petrazzuoli, S.: 1991, A physical model for the origin of volcanism of the Tyrrhenian margin: the case of Neapolitan area, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 48, 173–185.
Luongo, G., Obrizzo, F., Hartl, P., Thiel, K. H., Becker, D., Reich, M., Bles, J. L., Sauret, B., Murino, P., Ferri, M., Castellano, L., Russo, L., Fanelli, A., Rufino, A., and Esposito, S.: 1996, Earthquakes prediction in tectonic active areas using space techniques. In: A. Ghazi and M. Yeroyami (eds), ‘‘Seismic risk in the European Union’’, European Commission 1, 79–106.
Magri, G. and Molin, D.: 1985, The earthquake of December 1456 in Central-Southern Italy. In: Atlas of Isoseismal Maps of Italian Earthquakes. CNR, PFG, Quad. Ric. Sci., 114–2A, 20–23.
Marturano, A. and Rinaldis, V.: 1996, Seismic history and consistent seismicity: evidence from Southern Italy, Natural Hazard 14, 11–21.
Mazzarella, A. and Tranfaglia, G.: 2000, The fractal characterisation of geophysical measuring networks and its implications for an optimal location of additive stations: an application to a rain-gauge network, Theor. Appl. Climatol. 65, 157–163.
McKenzie, D. P.: 1972, Active tectonics of the Mediterranean region, Geophys. J. R. astr. Soc. 30, 109–185.
Meletti, C., Patacca, E., and Scandone, P.: 2000, Construction of a seismotectonic model: the case of Italy, Pure Appl. Geophys. 157, 11–35.
Milano, G., Vilardo, G., and Luongo, G.: 1994, Continental collision and basin opening in Southern Italy: a new plate subduction in the Tyrrhenian Sea? Tectonophysics 230, 249–264.
Molchan, G. M., Kronrod, T. L., and Panza, G. F.: 1997, Multiscale seismicity model for seismic risk, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 87, 1220–1229.
Mulargia, F. and Tinti, S. : 1985, Seismic sample areas defined from incomplete catalogues: an applications to the Italian Territory, Phys. Eart. Planet. Int. 40, 273–300.
OPC - Ordinanza del Presidente del Consiglio dei Ministri 20 marzo 2003. Primi elementi in materia di criteri generali per la classificazione sismica del territorio nazionale e di normative tecniche per le costrizioni in zona sismica (ordinanza n. 3274).
Panza, F. and Romanelli, F.: 2001, Beno Gutenberg contribution to seismic hazard assessment and recent progress in the European–Mediterranean region, Earth-Sci. Rev. 55, 165–180.
Patacca, E. and Scandone, P.: 1987, Tectonic evolution of the outer margin of the Apennines and related foredeep system. In: Boriani et al. (eds), The Lithosphere in Italy advances in earth science research, Accademia dei Lincei.
Patacca, E., Sartori, R., and Scandone, P.: 1990, Tyrrhenian Basin and Apenninic Arcs: kinematics relations since Late Tortonian time, Mem Soc. Geol. It. 45, 425–451.
Peresan, A., Costa, G., and Panza, G. F.: 1999, Seismotectonic model and CN earthquake prediction in Italy, Pure Appl. Geophys. 154, 281–306.
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