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Volcanic hazard assessment at the Campi Flegrei caldera
Author(s)
Language
English
Status
Published
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
/269 (2006)
Publisher
Geological Society ,London
Pages (printed)
159-171
Issued date
2006
Keywords
Abstract
Previous and new results from probabilistic approaches based on available
volcanological data from real eruptions of Campi Flegrei, are assembled in a comprehensive
assessment of volcanic hazards at the Campi Flegrei caldera, in order to compare the volcanic
hazards related to the different types of events. Hazard maps based on a very wide set of
numerical simulations, produced using field and laboratory data as input parameters relative
to the whole range of fallout and pyroclastic-flow events and their relative occurrence,
are presented. The results allow us to quantitatively evaluate and compare the hazard
related to pyroclastic fallout and density currents (PDCs) in the Campi Flegrei area and its
surroundings, including the city of Naples.
Due to the dominant wind directions, the hazard from fallout mostly affects the area east of
the caldera, and the caldera itself, with the level of probability and expected thickness decreasing
with distance from the caldera and outside the eastern sectors. The hazard from PDCs
decrease roughly radially with distance from the caldera centre and is strongly controlled by
the topographic relief, which produces an effective barrier to propagation of PDCs to the east
and northeast, areas which include metropolitan Naples. The main result is that the metropolitan
area of Naples would be directly exposed to both fallout and PDCs. Moreover, the
level of probability for critical tephra accumulation by fallout is relatively high, even for
moderate-scale events, while, due to the presence of topographic barriers, the hazard from
PDCs is only moderate and mostly associated with the largest events.
volcanological data from real eruptions of Campi Flegrei, are assembled in a comprehensive
assessment of volcanic hazards at the Campi Flegrei caldera, in order to compare the volcanic
hazards related to the different types of events. Hazard maps based on a very wide set of
numerical simulations, produced using field and laboratory data as input parameters relative
to the whole range of fallout and pyroclastic-flow events and their relative occurrence,
are presented. The results allow us to quantitatively evaluate and compare the hazard
related to pyroclastic fallout and density currents (PDCs) in the Campi Flegrei area and its
surroundings, including the city of Naples.
Due to the dominant wind directions, the hazard from fallout mostly affects the area east of
the caldera, and the caldera itself, with the level of probability and expected thickness decreasing
with distance from the caldera and outside the eastern sectors. The hazard from PDCs
decrease roughly radially with distance from the caldera centre and is strongly controlled by
the topographic relief, which produces an effective barrier to propagation of PDCs to the east
and northeast, areas which include metropolitan Naples. The main result is that the metropolitan
area of Naples would be directly exposed to both fallout and PDCs. Moreover, the
level of probability for critical tephra accumulation by fallout is relatively high, even for
moderate-scale events, while, due to the presence of topographic barriers, the hazard from
PDCs is only moderate and mostly associated with the largest events.
References
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Government Printing Office, Washington, DC.
BONADONNA, C., CONNOR, C. B., HOUGHTON, B. F.,
CONNOR, L., BYRNE, M., LAING, A. & HINCKS,
T. K. 2005. Probabilistic modeling tephra dispersal:
hazard assessment of a multiphase rhyolitic
eruption at Tarawera, New Zealand. Journal of
Geophyical Research, 110(B03203), doi:10.1029/
2003JB002896.
CAREY, S. & SPARKS, R. S. J. 1986. Quantitative models
of the fallout and dispersal of tephra from volcanic
eruption columns. Bulletin of Volcanology, 48,
109–125.
CORNELL, W., CAREY, S. & SIGURDSSON, H. 1983.
Computer simulation of transport and deposition of
the Campanian Y-5 ash. Journal of Volcanology and
Geothermal and Research, 17, 89–109.
CONNOR, B. C., HILL, E. B., WINFREY, B., FRANKLIN,
M. N. & LA FEMINA, C. P. 2001. Estimation of volcanic
hazards from tephra fallout. Natural Hazards
Review, February, 33–42.
DEINO, A. L., ORSI, G., DE VITA, S. & PIOCHI, M. 2004.
The age of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff calderaforming
eruption (Campi Flegrei caldera – Italy)
assessed by 40Ar/39Ar dating method. Journal
of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 133,
157–170.
DE NATALE, G., TROISE, C., PINGUE, F.,
MASTROLORENZO, G. & PAPPALARDO, L. 2006.
The Somma – Vesuvius volcano (Southern Italy)
Structure, dynamics and hazard evolution. Earth-
Science Reviews, 74, 73–111.
DE VIVO, B., ROLANDI, G. et al. 2001. New constraints
on the pyroclastic eruptive history of the
Campanian Volcanic Plain (Italy). Mineralogy and
Petrology, 73, 47–65
FRIELANDER, S. K. 2000. Smoke, Dust and Haze:
Fundamentals of Aerosol Behaviour. John Wiley,
New York.
MCEWEN, A. S. & MALIN, M. C. 1989. Dynamics of
Mount St. Helens’ 1980 pyroclastic flows, rockslideavalanche,
lahars, and blast. Journal Volcanology
and Geothermal Research, 37, 205–231
MASTROLORENZO, G. 1994. Averno tuff ring in Campi
Flegrei (south Italy). Bulletin of Volcanology, 56,
561–572.
MASTROLORENZO, G., BRACHI, L. & CANZANELLA, A.
2001. Vesicularity of various types of pyroclastic
deposits of Campi Flegrei volcanic field: evidence
of analogies in magma rise and vesiculation
machanisms. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal
Research, 109, 41–53.
MIDDLETON, G. V. & SOUTHARD, J. B. 1978. Mechanism
of Sediment Movement. SEPM, Eastern
Section, Short Course Lecture Notes.
PERLA, R. I. 1980. Avalanche release, motion, and
impact. In: COLBECK, S. C. (ed.) Dynamics of Snow
and Ice Avalanches. Academic Press, New York,
NY, 397–462.
ROSSANO, S., MASTROLORENZO, G., DE NATALE, G. &
PINGUE, F. 1996. Computer simulation of pyroclastic
flow movement: an inverse approach. Geophysical
Research Letters, 23, 3779–3782.
ROSSANO, S., MASTROLORENZO, G. & DE NATALE, G.
1998. Computer simulations of pyroclastic flows on
Somma–Vesuvius volcano, Journal of Volcanology
and Geothermal Research, 82, 113–137.
ROSSANO, S., MASTROLORENZO, G. & DE NATALE, G.
2004. Numerical simulation of pyroclastic density
currents on Campi Flegrei topography: a tool for
statistical hazard estimation. Journal of Volcanology
and Geothermal Research, 132, 1–14.
SUZUKI, T. 1983. A theoretical model for dispersion
of tephra. In: SHIMOZURU, D. & YOKOYAMA, I.
(eds) Arc Volcanism: Physics and Tectonics, Terra
Scientific Publishing Company (Terrapub), Tokyo,
95–113.
WOODS, A. W. 1988. The fluid dynamics and thermodynamics
of eruption columns. Bulletin of
Volcanology, 50, 169–193.
Government Printing Office, Washington, DC.
BONADONNA, C., CONNOR, C. B., HOUGHTON, B. F.,
CONNOR, L., BYRNE, M., LAING, A. & HINCKS,
T. K. 2005. Probabilistic modeling tephra dispersal:
hazard assessment of a multiphase rhyolitic
eruption at Tarawera, New Zealand. Journal of
Geophyical Research, 110(B03203), doi:10.1029/
2003JB002896.
CAREY, S. & SPARKS, R. S. J. 1986. Quantitative models
of the fallout and dispersal of tephra from volcanic
eruption columns. Bulletin of Volcanology, 48,
109–125.
CORNELL, W., CAREY, S. & SIGURDSSON, H. 1983.
Computer simulation of transport and deposition of
the Campanian Y-5 ash. Journal of Volcanology and
Geothermal and Research, 17, 89–109.
CONNOR, B. C., HILL, E. B., WINFREY, B., FRANKLIN,
M. N. & LA FEMINA, C. P. 2001. Estimation of volcanic
hazards from tephra fallout. Natural Hazards
Review, February, 33–42.
DEINO, A. L., ORSI, G., DE VITA, S. & PIOCHI, M. 2004.
The age of the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff calderaforming
eruption (Campi Flegrei caldera – Italy)
assessed by 40Ar/39Ar dating method. Journal
of Volcanology and Geothermal Research, 133,
157–170.
DE NATALE, G., TROISE, C., PINGUE, F.,
MASTROLORENZO, G. & PAPPALARDO, L. 2006.
The Somma – Vesuvius volcano (Southern Italy)
Structure, dynamics and hazard evolution. Earth-
Science Reviews, 74, 73–111.
DE VIVO, B., ROLANDI, G. et al. 2001. New constraints
on the pyroclastic eruptive history of the
Campanian Volcanic Plain (Italy). Mineralogy and
Petrology, 73, 47–65
FRIELANDER, S. K. 2000. Smoke, Dust and Haze:
Fundamentals of Aerosol Behaviour. John Wiley,
New York.
MCEWEN, A. S. & MALIN, M. C. 1989. Dynamics of
Mount St. Helens’ 1980 pyroclastic flows, rockslideavalanche,
lahars, and blast. Journal Volcanology
and Geothermal Research, 37, 205–231
MASTROLORENZO, G. 1994. Averno tuff ring in Campi
Flegrei (south Italy). Bulletin of Volcanology, 56,
561–572.
MASTROLORENZO, G., BRACHI, L. & CANZANELLA, A.
2001. Vesicularity of various types of pyroclastic
deposits of Campi Flegrei volcanic field: evidence
of analogies in magma rise and vesiculation
machanisms. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal
Research, 109, 41–53.
MIDDLETON, G. V. & SOUTHARD, J. B. 1978. Mechanism
of Sediment Movement. SEPM, Eastern
Section, Short Course Lecture Notes.
PERLA, R. I. 1980. Avalanche release, motion, and
impact. In: COLBECK, S. C. (ed.) Dynamics of Snow
and Ice Avalanches. Academic Press, New York,
NY, 397–462.
ROSSANO, S., MASTROLORENZO, G., DE NATALE, G. &
PINGUE, F. 1996. Computer simulation of pyroclastic
flow movement: an inverse approach. Geophysical
Research Letters, 23, 3779–3782.
ROSSANO, S., MASTROLORENZO, G. & DE NATALE, G.
1998. Computer simulations of pyroclastic flows on
Somma–Vesuvius volcano, Journal of Volcanology
and Geothermal Research, 82, 113–137.
ROSSANO, S., MASTROLORENZO, G. & DE NATALE, G.
2004. Numerical simulation of pyroclastic density
currents on Campi Flegrei topography: a tool for
statistical hazard estimation. Journal of Volcanology
and Geothermal Research, 132, 1–14.
SUZUKI, T. 1983. A theoretical model for dispersion
of tephra. In: SHIMOZURU, D. & YOKOYAMA, I.
(eds) Arc Volcanism: Physics and Tectonics, Terra
Scientific Publishing Company (Terrapub), Tokyo,
95–113.
WOODS, A. W. 1988. The fluid dynamics and thermodynamics
of eruption columns. Bulletin of
Volcanology, 50, 169–193.
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