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A New Approximate Method for Quantifying Tsunami Maximum Inundation Height Probability
Author(s)
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
7/176 (2019)
Pages (printed)
3227–3246
Issued date
2019
Abstract
Regional and global tsunami hazard analysis requires simplified and efficient methods for estimating the tsunami inundation height and its related uncertainty. One such approach is the amplification factor (AF) method. Amplification factors describe the relation between offshore wave height and the maximum inundation height, as predicted by linearized plane wave models employed for incident waves with different wave characteristics. In this study, a new amplification factor method is developed that takes into account the offshore bathymetry proximal to the coastal site. The present AFs cover the North-Eastern Atlantic and Mediterranean (NEAM) region. The model is the first general approximate model that quantifies inundation height uncertainty. Uncertainty quantification is carried out by analyzing the inundation height variability in more than 500 high-resolution inundation simulations at six different coastal sites. The inundation simulations are undertaken with different earthquake sources in order to produce different wave period and polarity. We show that the probability density of the maximum inundation height can be modeled with a log-normal distribution, whose median is quite well predicted by the AF. It is further demonstrated that the associated maximum inundation height uncertainties are significant and must be accounted for in tsunami hazard analysis. The application to the recently developed TSUMAPS-NEAM probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis (PTHA) is presented as a use case.
Type
article
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Name
2019_Glimsdal_et_al_PAGEOPH_tsunami_amplification.pdf
Size
4.62 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
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