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Uncertainties in volcanic plume modeling: A parametric study using FPLUME
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
5V. Dinamica dei processi eruttivi e post-eruttivi
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Title of the book
Issue/vol(year)
/326 (2016)
Pages (printed)
92-102
Issued date
2016
Abstract
We carry out a parametric study in order to identify and quantify the effects of uncertainties on pivotal parameters controlling the dynamics of volcanic plumes. The study builds upon numerical simulations using FPLUME, an integral steady-state model based on the Buoyant Plume Theory generalized in order to account for volcanic processes (particle fallout and re-entrainment, water phase changes, effects of wind, etc). As reference cases for strong and weak plumes, we consider the cases defined during the IAVCEI Commission on tephra hazard modeling inter-comparison study (Costa et al., 2016). The parametric study quantifies the effect of typical uncertainties on total mass eruption rate, column height, mixture exit velocity, temperature and water content, and particle size. Moreover, a sensitivity study investigates the role of wind entrainment and intensity, atmospheric humidity, water phase changes, and particle fallout and re-entrainment. Results show that the leading-order parameters that control plume height are the mass eruption rate and the air entrainment coefficient, especially for weak plumes.
Type
article
File(s)
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Name
maccos2016.pdf
Size
1.23 MB
Format
Adobe PDF
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