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Slip rate depth distribution for active faults in Central Italy using numerical models
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
1T. Geodinamica e interno della Terra
2T. Tettonica attiva
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Peer review journal
Yes
Title of the book
ISSN
0040-1951
Electronic ISSN
1879-3266
Publisher
Elsevier Science Limited
Issued date
July 30, 2016
Alternative Location
Subjects
Abstract
Slip rate is a critical parameter for describing geologic and earthquake rates of known active faults. Although
faults are inherently three-dimensional surfaces, the paucity of data allows for estimating only the slip rate at
the ground surface and often only few values for an entire fault. These values are frequently assumed as proxies
or as some average of slip rate at depth. Evidence of geological offset and single earthquake displacement, as well
as mechanical requirements, show that fault slip varies significantly with depth. Slip rate should thus vary in a
presumably similar way, yet these variations are rarely considered.
In this work, we tackle the determination of slip rate depth distributions by applying the finite element method
on a 2D vertical section, with stratification and faults, across the central Apennines, Italy. In a first step, we perform
a plane-stress analysis assuming visco-elasto-plastic rheology and then search throughout a large range of
values to minimize the RMS deviation between the model and the interseismic GPS velocities. Using a parametric
analysis, we assess the accuracy of the best model and the sensitivity of its parameters. In a second step, we
unlock the faults and let the model simulate 10 kyr of deformation to estimate the fault long-term slip rates.
The overall average slip rate at depth is approximately 1.1 mm/yr for normal faults and 0.2 mm/yr for thrust
faults. A maximum value of about 2 mm/yr characterizes the Avezzano fault that caused the 1915, Mw 7.0 earthquake.
The slip rate depth distribution varies significantly from fault to fault and even between neighbouring
faults, with maxima and minima located at different depths. We found uniform distributions only occasionally.
We suggest that these findings can strongly influence the forecasting of cumulative earthquake depth distributions
based on long-term fault slip rates.
faults are inherently three-dimensional surfaces, the paucity of data allows for estimating only the slip rate at
the ground surface and often only few values for an entire fault. These values are frequently assumed as proxies
or as some average of slip rate at depth. Evidence of geological offset and single earthquake displacement, as well
as mechanical requirements, show that fault slip varies significantly with depth. Slip rate should thus vary in a
presumably similar way, yet these variations are rarely considered.
In this work, we tackle the determination of slip rate depth distributions by applying the finite element method
on a 2D vertical section, with stratification and faults, across the central Apennines, Italy. In a first step, we perform
a plane-stress analysis assuming visco-elasto-plastic rheology and then search throughout a large range of
values to minimize the RMS deviation between the model and the interseismic GPS velocities. Using a parametric
analysis, we assess the accuracy of the best model and the sensitivity of its parameters. In a second step, we
unlock the faults and let the model simulate 10 kyr of deformation to estimate the fault long-term slip rates.
The overall average slip rate at depth is approximately 1.1 mm/yr for normal faults and 0.2 mm/yr for thrust
faults. A maximum value of about 2 mm/yr characterizes the Avezzano fault that caused the 1915, Mw 7.0 earthquake.
The slip rate depth distribution varies significantly from fault to fault and even between neighbouring
faults, with maxima and minima located at different depths. We found uniform distributions only occasionally.
We suggest that these findings can strongly influence the forecasting of cumulative earthquake depth distributions
based on long-term fault slip rates.
Sponsors
Project “Abruzzo” (code: RBAP10ZC8K_
003) funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research
(MIUR).
003) funded by the Italian Ministry of Education, University and Research
(MIUR).
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Allmendinger, R.W., 1998. Inverse and forward numerical modeling of trishear fault-propagation folds. Tectonics 17, 640-656, doi: 10.1029/98tc01907.
Amoruso, A., Crescentini, L., D'Anastasio, E., De Martini, P.M., 2005. Clues of postseismic relaxation for the 1915 Fucino earthquake (central Italy) from modeling of leveling data. Geophysical Research Letters 32, doi: 10.1029/2005gl024139.
Barba, S., Basili, R., 2000. Analysis of seismological and geological observations for moderate size earthquakes: the Colfiorito Fault System (Central Apennines, Italy). Geophysical Journal International 141, 241-252, doi.
Barba, S., Carafa, M.M.C., Boschi, E., 2008. Experimental evidence for mantle drag in the Mediterranean. Geophysical Research Letters 35, doi: 10.1029/2008gl033281.
Barba, S., Finocchio, D., Sikdar, E., Burrato, P., 2013. Modelling the interseismic deformation of a thrust system: seismogenic potential of the Southern Alps. Terra Nova 25, 221-227, doi: 10.1111/ter.12026.
Basili, R., Barba, S., 2007. Migration and shortening rates in the northern Apennines, Italy: implications for seismic hazard. Terra Nova 19, 462-468, doi: 10.1111/j.1365-3121.2007.00772.x.
Basili, R., Tiberti, M.M., Kastelic, V., Romano, F., Piatanesi, A., Selva, J., Lorito, S., 2013. Integrating geologic fault data into tsunami hazard studies. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science 13, 1025-1050, doi: 10.5194/nhess-13-1025-2013.
Benedetti, L., Manighetti, I., Gaudemer, Y., Finkel, R., Malavieille, J., Pou, K., Arnold, M., Aumaître, G., Bourlès, D., Keddadouche, K., 2013. Earthquake synchrony and clustering on Fucino faults (Central Italy) as revealed from in situ36Cl exposure dating. Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth 118, 4948-4974, doi: 10.1002/jgrb.50299.
Bigi, S., Conti, A., Casero, P., Ruggiero, L., Recanati, R., Lipparini, L., 2013. Geological model of the central Periadriatic basin (Apennines, Italy). Marine and Petroleum Geology 42, 107-121, doi: 10.1016/j.marpetgeo.2012.07.005.
Bird, P., 1989. New finite element techniques for modeling deformation histories of continents with stratified temperature-dependent rheologies. Journal of Geophysical Research 94, 3967-3990, doi.
Bird, P., 1999. Thin-plate and thin-shell finite-element programs for forward dynamic modeling of plate deformation and faulting. Computers & Geosciences 25, 383-394, doi.
Bird, P., 2009. Long-term fault slip rates, distributed deformation rates, and forecast of seismicity in the western United States from joint fitting of community geologic, geodetic, and stress direction data sets. Journal of Geophysical Research 114, doi: 10.1029/2009jb006317.
Bonini, L., Basili, R., Toscani, G., Burrato, P., Seno, S., Valensise, G., 2015. The role of pre-existing discontinuities in the development of extensional faults: An analog modeling perspective. Journal of Structural Geology 74, 145-158, doi: 10.1016/j.jsg.2015.03.004.
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