Spatial probability distribution of future volcanic eruptions at El Hierro Island (Canary Islands, Spain)
Author(s)
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
1V. Storia e struttura dei sistemi vulcanici
2V. Dinamiche di unrest e scenari pre-eruttivi
3V. Dinamiche e scenari eruttivi
4V. Vulcani e ambiente
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Peer review journal
Yes
Issue/vol(year)
/257(2013)
ISSN
0377-0273
Electronic ISSN
1872-6097
Publisher
Elsevier Science Limited
Pages (printed)
21-30
Date Issued
March 14, 2013
Alternative Location
Abstract
The 2011 submarine eruption that took place in the proximity of El Hierro Island (Canary Islands, Spain) has
raised the need to identify the most likely future emission zones even on volcanoes characterized by low
frequency activity. Here, we propose a probabilistic method to build the susceptibility map of El Hierro,
i.e. the spatial distribution of vent opening for future eruptions, based on the probabilistic analysis of
volcano-structural data of the Island collected through newfieldworkmeasurements, bathymetric information,
as well as analysis of geological maps, orthophotos and aerial photographs. These data have been
divided into different datasets and converted into separate and weighted probability density functions,
which were included in a non-homogeneous Poisson process to produce the volcanic susceptibility map.
The most likely area to host new eruptions in El Hierro is in the south-western part of the West rift. High
probability locations are also found in the Northeast and South rifts, and along the submarine parts of the
rifts. This map represents the first effort to deal with the volcanic hazard at El Hierro and can be a support
tool for decision makers in land planning, emergency measures and civil defense actions.
raised the need to identify the most likely future emission zones even on volcanoes characterized by low
frequency activity. Here, we propose a probabilistic method to build the susceptibility map of El Hierro,
i.e. the spatial distribution of vent opening for future eruptions, based on the probabilistic analysis of
volcano-structural data of the Island collected through newfieldworkmeasurements, bathymetric information,
as well as analysis of geological maps, orthophotos and aerial photographs. These data have been
divided into different datasets and converted into separate and weighted probability density functions,
which were included in a non-homogeneous Poisson process to produce the volcanic susceptibility map.
The most likely area to host new eruptions in El Hierro is in the south-western part of the West rift. High
probability locations are also found in the Northeast and South rifts, and along the submarine parts of the
rifts. This map represents the first effort to deal with the volcanic hazard at El Hierro and can be a support
tool for decision makers in land planning, emergency measures and civil defense actions.
Sponsors
This work has been partially funded by the Spanish Geological
Survey (IGME) through the MODEX Project (directed by Luis Laín)
and a Research Grant for LB, and the Research grant program “Innova
Canarias 2020®” from the “Fundación Universitaria de Las Palmas”.
Survey (IGME) through the MODEX Project (directed by Luis Laín)
and a Research Grant for LB, and the Research grant program “Innova
Canarias 2020®” from the “Fundación Universitaria de Las Palmas”.
References
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Ancochea, E., Brändle, J.L., Cubas, C.R., Hernán, F., Huertas, M.J., 1996. Volcanic complexes
in the eastern ridge of the Canary Islands: the Miocene activity of the island
of Fuerteventura. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 70, 183–204.
Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard
and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions, in Statistics in Volcanology. In: Mader,
H.M., Coles, S.G., Connor, C.B., Connor, L.J. (Eds.), Special Publication of IAVCEI, 1.
Geological Society of London, pp. 15–30.
Balcells, R., Gomez, J.A., 1997a. Memorias y mapas geológicos del Plan MAGNA a escala
1:25.000 de las Hojas correspondientes a la isla de El Hierro. Hoja de Valverde,
Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Spain.
Balcells, R., Gomez, J.A., 1997b. Memorias y mapas geológicos del Plan MAGNA a escala
1:25.000 de las Hojas correspondientes a la isla de El Hierro. Hoja de Frontera,
Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Spain.
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Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Spain.
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(Islas Canarias). Boletín Geológico y Minero 105, 50–56.
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Volcanic Field, New Zealand, with a new event-order model. Bulletin of Volcanology
73, 55–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-010-0403-6.
Becerril, L., 2009. Approach to volcanic hazard and its effects in coastal areas of the
Canary Islands, Master's thesis, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria,
Spain, Available on line at: http://hdl.handle.net/10553/4595.
Becerril, L., Galindo, I., Llorente, M., Laín, L.,Mancebo,M.J., 2009. Long termvolcanic hazard
analysis in the Canary Islands. Geophysical Research Abstracts 11, EGU2009–EGU12154.
Bonforte, A., Gambino, S., Neri, M., 2009. Intrusion of eccentric dikes: the case of the
2001 eruption and its role in the dynamics of Mt. Etna volcano. Tectonophysics
471, 78–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2008.09.028.
Cappello, A., Vicari, A., Del Negro, C., 2011a. Assessment andmodeling of lava flow hazard
on Etna volcano. Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata 52 (2), 299–308. http://
dx.doi.org/10.4430/bgta0003.
Cappello, A., Vicari, A., Del Negro, C., 2011b. Retrospective validation of a lava flow hazard
map forMount Etna volcano. Annals ofGeophysics 54 (5), 634–640. http://dx.doi.org/
10.4401/ag-5345.
Cappello, A., Neri, M., Acocella, V., Gallo, G., Vicari, A., Del Negro, C., 2012. Spatial vent
opening probability map of Mt Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy). Bulletin of Volcanology.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-012-0647-4.
Carracedo, J.C., 1996. Morphological and structural evolution of the western Canary
Islands: hotspot-induced three-armed rifts or regional tectonic trends? Journal of
Volcanology and Geothermal Research 72, 151–162.
Carracedo, J.C., Day, S., Guillou, H., 1999. Giant Quaternary landslides in the evolution
of La Palma and El Hierro, Canary Islands. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal
Research 94, 169–190.
Carracedo, J.C., Rodríguez Badiola, E., Guillou, H., de La Nuez, H.J., Pérez Torrado, F.J.,
2001. Geology and volcanology of the western Canaries: La Palma and El Hierro.
Estudios Geológicos 57, 171–295.
Connor, C.B., Connor, L.J., 2009. Estimating spatial density with kernel methods. In:
Connor, C.B., Chapman, N.A., Connor, L.J. (Eds.), Volcanic and Tectonic Hazard
Assessment for Nuclear Facilities. Cambridge University Press, pp. 346–368.
L. Becerril et al. / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 257 (2013) 21–30 29
Connor, L.J., Connor, C.B., Meliksetian, K., Savov, I., 2012. Probabilistic approach to
modeling lava flow inundation: a lava flow hazard assessment for a nuclear facility
in Armenia. Journal of Applied Volcanology 1 (3).
Crisci, G.M., Avolio, M.V., Behncke, B., D'Ambrosio, D., Di Gregorio, S., Lupiano, V., Neri,
M., Rongo, R., Spataro, W., 2010. Predicting the impact of lava flows at Mount
Etna. Journal of Geophysical Research 115, B04203. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/
2009JB006431.
Falsaperla, S., Cara, F., Rovelli, A., Neri, M., Behncke, B., Acocella, V., 2010. Effects of the
1989 fracture system in the dynamics of the upper SE flank of Etna revealed by
volcanic tremor data: the missing link? Journal of Geophysical Research 115,
B11306. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010JB007529.
Felpeto, A., Martí, J., Ortiz, R., 2007. Automatic GIS-based system for volcanic hazard assessment.
Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 166, 106–116. http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.07.008.
Galindo, I., Gudmundsson, A., 2012. Basaltic feeder dykes in rift zones: geometry,
emplacement, and effusion rates. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12,
3683–3700.
Galindo, I., Laín, L., Bellido, F., Pérez, F., Mancebo, M.J., Llorente, M., Gómez, F., Real, F.,
2007. A GIS-based volcanic hazard map for Tenerife at a 1:25,000 scale, paper
presented at 3rd International Geohazards Week in ESRIN, Frascati (Italy) on 5–9
November 2007.
Galindo, I., Becerril, L., Gudmundsson, A., 2012. The sub-volcanic system of El Hierro,
Canary Islands. Geophysical Research Abstracts 14, EGU2012–EGU12597.
Geshi, N., Kusumoto, S., Gudmundsson, A., 2010. Geometric difference between nonfeeder
and feeder dikes. Geology 38, 195–198. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/G30350.1.
Gudmundsson, A., Brenner, S.L., 2004. Local stresses, dyke arrest and surface deformation
in volcanic edifices and rift zones. Annals of Geophysics 47, 1433–1454.
Gudmundsson, A., Marinoni, L.B., Marti, J., 1999. Injection and arrest of dykes: implications
for volcanic hazards. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 88 (1),
1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(98)00107-3.
Guillou, H., Carracedo, J.C., Perez-Torrado, F.J., Rodriguez Badiola, E., 1996. K–Ar ages
and magnetic stratigraphy of a hotspot-induced, fast grown oceanic island: El Hierro,
Canary Islands. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 73, 141–155.
Instituto Español de Oceanografía, 2012. Informe de campaña BIMBACHE1011-9/2012.
Available online at: http://www.ieo.es/apartar/ieoprensa/hierro/hierro-leg9.pdf.
Jaquet, O., Connor, C., Connor, L., 2008. Probabilistic methodology for long-term assessment
of volcanic hazards. Nuclear Technology 163, 180–189.
Kiyosugi, K., Connor, C.B., Wetmore, P.H., Ferwerda, B.P., Germa, A.M., Connor, L.J.,
Hintz, A.R., 2012. Relationship between dike and volcanic conduit distribution in
a highly eroded monogenetic volcanic field: San Rafael, Utah, USA. Geology 40
(8), 695–698.
Longpré, M.A., Chadwick, J.P., Wijbrans, J., Iping, R., 2011. Age of the El Golfo debris
avalanche, El Hierro (Canary Islands): new constraints from laser and furnace
40Ar/39Ar dating. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 203, 76–80.
Martí, J., Felpeto, A., 2010. Methodology for the computation of volcanic susceptibility.
An example for mafic and felsic eruptions on Tenerife (Canary Islands). Journal of
Volcanology and Geothermal Research 195, 69–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/
j.jvolgeores.2010.06.008.
Martí, J., Pinel, V., López, C., Geyer, A., Abella, R., Tárraga, M., Blanco, M.J., Castro, A.,
Rodríguez, C., 2013. Causes and mechanisms of El Hierro submarine eruption
(2011–2012) (Canary Islands). Journal of Geophysical Research. http://dx.doi.org/
10.1002/jgrb.50087.
Martin, A.J., Umeda, K., Connor, C.B., Weller, J.N., Zhao, D., Takahashi, M., 2004. Modeling
long-term volcanic hazards through Bayesian inference: an example from the
Tohuku volcanic arc Japan. Journal of Geophysical Research 109, B10208. http://
dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004JB003201.
Masson, D.G., 1996. Catastrophic collapse of the flank of El Hierro about 15,000 years
ago and the history of large flank collapses in the Canary Islands. Geology 24,
231–234.
Masson, D.G., Watts, A.B., Gee, M.J.R., Urgeles, R., Mitchell, N.C., Le Bas, T.P., Canals, M.,
2002. Slope failures on the flanks of the western Canary Islands. Earth-Science
Reviews 57, 1–35.
Münn, S., Walter, T.R., Klügel, A., 2006. Gravitational spreading controls rift zones and
flank instability on El Hierro, Canary Islands. Geological Magazine 143, 257–268.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0016756806002019.
Neri, M., Acocella, V., Behncke, B., Giammanco, S., Mazzarini, F., Rust, D., 2011. Structural
analysis of the eruptive fissures at Mount Etna (Italy). Annals of Geophysics 54 (5),
464–479. http://dx.doi.org/10.4401/ag-5332.
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Ancochea, E., Brändle, J.L., Cubas, C.R., Hernán, F., Huertas, M.J., 1996. Volcanic complexes
in the eastern ridge of the Canary Islands: the Miocene activity of the island
of Fuerteventura. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 70, 183–204.
Aspinall, W.P., 2006. Structured elicitation of expert judgment for probabilistic hazard
and risk assessment in volcanic eruptions, in Statistics in Volcanology. In: Mader,
H.M., Coles, S.G., Connor, C.B., Connor, L.J. (Eds.), Special Publication of IAVCEI, 1.
Geological Society of London, pp. 15–30.
Balcells, R., Gomez, J.A., 1997a. Memorias y mapas geológicos del Plan MAGNA a escala
1:25.000 de las Hojas correspondientes a la isla de El Hierro. Hoja de Valverde,
Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Spain.
Balcells, R., Gomez, J.A., 1997b. Memorias y mapas geológicos del Plan MAGNA a escala
1:25.000 de las Hojas correspondientes a la isla de El Hierro. Hoja de Frontera,
Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Spain.
Balcells, R., Gomez, J.A., 1997c. Memorias y mapas geológicos del Plan MAGNA a escala
1:25.000 de las Hojas correspondientes a la isla de El Hierro. Hoja de Sabinosa,
Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Spain.
Balcells, R., Gomez, J.A., 1997d. Memorias y mapas geológicos del Plan MAGNA a escala
1:25.000 de las Hojas correspondientes a la isla de El Hierro. Hoja de La Restinga,
Instituto Geológico y Minero de España, Spain.
Balcells, R., Barrera, J.L., Gómez, J.A., Cueto, L.A., Ancochea, E., Huertas, M.J., Ibarrola, E.,
Snelling, N., 1994. Edades radiométricas de los edificios Miocenos de Fuerteventura
(Islas Canarias). Boletín Geológico y Minero 105, 50–56.
Bebbington, M.S., Cronin, S.J., 2011. Spatio-temporal hazard estimation in the Auckland
Volcanic Field, New Zealand, with a new event-order model. Bulletin of Volcanology
73, 55–72. http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-010-0403-6.
Becerril, L., 2009. Approach to volcanic hazard and its effects in coastal areas of the
Canary Islands, Master's thesis, Universidad de Las Palmas de Gran Canaria,
Spain, Available on line at: http://hdl.handle.net/10553/4595.
Becerril, L., Galindo, I., Llorente, M., Laín, L.,Mancebo,M.J., 2009. Long termvolcanic hazard
analysis in the Canary Islands. Geophysical Research Abstracts 11, EGU2009–EGU12154.
Bonforte, A., Gambino, S., Neri, M., 2009. Intrusion of eccentric dikes: the case of the
2001 eruption and its role in the dynamics of Mt. Etna volcano. Tectonophysics
471, 78–86. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.tecto.2008.09.028.
Cappello, A., Vicari, A., Del Negro, C., 2011a. Assessment andmodeling of lava flow hazard
on Etna volcano. Bollettino di Geofisica Teorica ed Applicata 52 (2), 299–308. http://
dx.doi.org/10.4430/bgta0003.
Cappello, A., Vicari, A., Del Negro, C., 2011b. Retrospective validation of a lava flow hazard
map forMount Etna volcano. Annals ofGeophysics 54 (5), 634–640. http://dx.doi.org/
10.4401/ag-5345.
Cappello, A., Neri, M., Acocella, V., Gallo, G., Vicari, A., Del Negro, C., 2012. Spatial vent
opening probability map of Mt Etna volcano (Sicily, Italy). Bulletin of Volcanology.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1007/s00445-012-0647-4.
Carracedo, J.C., 1996. Morphological and structural evolution of the western Canary
Islands: hotspot-induced three-armed rifts or regional tectonic trends? Journal of
Volcanology and Geothermal Research 72, 151–162.
Carracedo, J.C., Day, S., Guillou, H., 1999. Giant Quaternary landslides in the evolution
of La Palma and El Hierro, Canary Islands. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal
Research 94, 169–190.
Carracedo, J.C., Rodríguez Badiola, E., Guillou, H., de La Nuez, H.J., Pérez Torrado, F.J.,
2001. Geology and volcanology of the western Canaries: La Palma and El Hierro.
Estudios Geológicos 57, 171–295.
Connor, C.B., Connor, L.J., 2009. Estimating spatial density with kernel methods. In:
Connor, C.B., Chapman, N.A., Connor, L.J. (Eds.), Volcanic and Tectonic Hazard
Assessment for Nuclear Facilities. Cambridge University Press, pp. 346–368.
L. Becerril et al. / Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 257 (2013) 21–30 29
Connor, L.J., Connor, C.B., Meliksetian, K., Savov, I., 2012. Probabilistic approach to
modeling lava flow inundation: a lava flow hazard assessment for a nuclear facility
in Armenia. Journal of Applied Volcanology 1 (3).
Crisci, G.M., Avolio, M.V., Behncke, B., D'Ambrosio, D., Di Gregorio, S., Lupiano, V., Neri,
M., Rongo, R., Spataro, W., 2010. Predicting the impact of lava flows at Mount
Etna. Journal of Geophysical Research 115, B04203. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/
2009JB006431.
Falsaperla, S., Cara, F., Rovelli, A., Neri, M., Behncke, B., Acocella, V., 2010. Effects of the
1989 fracture system in the dynamics of the upper SE flank of Etna revealed by
volcanic tremor data: the missing link? Journal of Geophysical Research 115,
B11306. http://dx.doi.org/10.1029/2010JB007529.
Felpeto, A., Martí, J., Ortiz, R., 2007. Automatic GIS-based system for volcanic hazard assessment.
Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 166, 106–116. http://
dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jvolgeores.2007.07.008.
Galindo, I., Gudmundsson, A., 2012. Basaltic feeder dykes in rift zones: geometry,
emplacement, and effusion rates. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 12,
3683–3700.
Galindo, I., Laín, L., Bellido, F., Pérez, F., Mancebo, M.J., Llorente, M., Gómez, F., Real, F.,
2007. A GIS-based volcanic hazard map for Tenerife at a 1:25,000 scale, paper
presented at 3rd International Geohazards Week in ESRIN, Frascati (Italy) on 5–9
November 2007.
Galindo, I., Becerril, L., Gudmundsson, A., 2012. The sub-volcanic system of El Hierro,
Canary Islands. Geophysical Research Abstracts 14, EGU2012–EGU12597.
Geshi, N., Kusumoto, S., Gudmundsson, A., 2010. Geometric difference between nonfeeder
and feeder dikes. Geology 38, 195–198. http://dx.doi.org/10.1130/G30350.1.
Gudmundsson, A., Brenner, S.L., 2004. Local stresses, dyke arrest and surface deformation
in volcanic edifices and rift zones. Annals of Geophysics 47, 1433–1454.
Gudmundsson, A., Marinoni, L.B., Marti, J., 1999. Injection and arrest of dykes: implications
for volcanic hazards. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 88 (1),
1–13. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/S0377-0273(98)00107-3.
Guillou, H., Carracedo, J.C., Perez-Torrado, F.J., Rodriguez Badiola, E., 1996. K–Ar ages
and magnetic stratigraphy of a hotspot-induced, fast grown oceanic island: El Hierro,
Canary Islands. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 73, 141–155.
Instituto Español de Oceanografía, 2012. Informe de campaña BIMBACHE1011-9/2012.
Available online at: http://www.ieo.es/apartar/ieoprensa/hierro/hierro-leg9.pdf.
Jaquet, O., Connor, C., Connor, L., 2008. Probabilistic methodology for long-term assessment
of volcanic hazards. Nuclear Technology 163, 180–189.
Kiyosugi, K., Connor, C.B., Wetmore, P.H., Ferwerda, B.P., Germa, A.M., Connor, L.J.,
Hintz, A.R., 2012. Relationship between dike and volcanic conduit distribution in
a highly eroded monogenetic volcanic field: San Rafael, Utah, USA. Geology 40
(8), 695–698.
Longpré, M.A., Chadwick, J.P., Wijbrans, J., Iping, R., 2011. Age of the El Golfo debris
avalanche, El Hierro (Canary Islands): new constraints from laser and furnace
40Ar/39Ar dating. Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research 203, 76–80.
Martí, J., Felpeto, A., 2010. Methodology for the computation of volcanic susceptibility.
An example for mafic and felsic eruptions on Tenerife (Canary Islands). Journal of
Volcanology and Geothermal Research 195, 69–77. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/
j.jvolgeores.2010.06.008.
Martí, J., Pinel, V., López, C., Geyer, A., Abella, R., Tárraga, M., Blanco, M.J., Castro, A.,
Rodríguez, C., 2013. Causes and mechanisms of El Hierro submarine eruption
(2011–2012) (Canary Islands). Journal of Geophysical Research. http://dx.doi.org/
10.1002/jgrb.50087.
Martin, A.J., Umeda, K., Connor, C.B., Weller, J.N., Zhao, D., Takahashi, M., 2004. Modeling
long-term volcanic hazards through Bayesian inference: an example from the
Tohuku volcanic arc Japan. Journal of Geophysical Research 109, B10208. http://
dx.doi.org/10.1029/2004JB003201.
Masson, D.G., 1996. Catastrophic collapse of the flank of El Hierro about 15,000 years
ago and the history of large flank collapses in the Canary Islands. Geology 24,
231–234.
Masson, D.G., Watts, A.B., Gee, M.J.R., Urgeles, R., Mitchell, N.C., Le Bas, T.P., Canals, M.,
2002. Slope failures on the flanks of the western Canary Islands. Earth-Science
Reviews 57, 1–35.
Münn, S., Walter, T.R., Klügel, A., 2006. Gravitational spreading controls rift zones and
flank instability on El Hierro, Canary Islands. Geological Magazine 143, 257–268.
http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0016756806002019.
Neri, M., Acocella, V., Behncke, B., Giammanco, S., Mazzarini, F., Rust, D., 2011. Structural
analysis of the eruptive fissures at Mount Etna (Italy). Annals of Geophysics 54 (5),
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