Comparison of Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Estimates in Italy
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
4.2. TTC - Scenari e mappe di pericolosità sismica
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Peer review journal
Yes
Issue/vol(year)
6/98(2008)
Publisher
Seismological Society of America
Pages (printed)
2652–2664
Date Issued
December 2008
Abstract
Macroseismic intensity has recently attracted attention as a tool for validating
probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) studies or as an alternative
method for PSHA in countries where the historical catalog is much longer than
the instrumental one. In Italy, the new seismic hazard map was recently produced
using the Cornell–McGuire approach in terms of the peak ground acceleration characterized
by a 10% exceedance probability for an exposure time of 50 yr (Amax). We
compare this map with an alternative one, produced using a different approach based
on a nonparametric and zonation-free statistical analysis of local seismic histories. In
this case, results are expressed in terms of the maximum intensity corresponding to an
exceedance probability of not less than 10% for an exposure time of 50 yr (Iref ). In
order to compare the two maps, we selected 1401 control sites, where local seismic
history includes at least 10 intensity values relative to felt effects documented during
past earthquakes. The values of Amax and Iref at these sites have been ranked in the
respective domains. The spatial distribution of rank differences of Amax and Iref values
shows a strong correlation with the seismogenic zoning used in the calculation of
PSHA following the Cornell–McGuire approach. This suggests that the adopted zoning
could be incomplete (some further “hidden” sources may exist) and too rough to
capture actual seismogenic sources. Because more detailed zoning is prevented by the
amount of data available, the results obtained suggest the preference of zonation-free
approaches for seismic hazard assessment in Italy. Furthermore, among the possible
zonation-free approaches, those that offer better exploitation of local information
about the effects of past earthquakes would be preferred.
probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) studies or as an alternative
method for PSHA in countries where the historical catalog is much longer than
the instrumental one. In Italy, the new seismic hazard map was recently produced
using the Cornell–McGuire approach in terms of the peak ground acceleration characterized
by a 10% exceedance probability for an exposure time of 50 yr (Amax). We
compare this map with an alternative one, produced using a different approach based
on a nonparametric and zonation-free statistical analysis of local seismic histories. In
this case, results are expressed in terms of the maximum intensity corresponding to an
exceedance probability of not less than 10% for an exposure time of 50 yr (Iref ). In
order to compare the two maps, we selected 1401 control sites, where local seismic
history includes at least 10 intensity values relative to felt effects documented during
past earthquakes. The values of Amax and Iref at these sites have been ranked in the
respective domains. The spatial distribution of rank differences of Amax and Iref values
shows a strong correlation with the seismogenic zoning used in the calculation of
PSHA following the Cornell–McGuire approach. This suggests that the adopted zoning
could be incomplete (some further “hidden” sources may exist) and too rough to
capture actual seismogenic sources. Because more detailed zoning is prevented by the
amount of data available, the results obtained suggest the preference of zonation-free
approaches for seismic hazard assessment in Italy. Furthermore, among the possible
zonation-free approaches, those that offer better exploitation of local information
about the effects of past earthquakes would be preferred.
References
Akinci, A., C. Mueller, L. Malagnini, and A. Lombardi (2004). Seismic
hazard estimate in the Alps and Apennines (Italy) using smoothed historical
seismicity and regionalized predictive ground motion relationships,
Boll. Geofis. Teor. Appl. 45, 285–304.
Albarello, D. (2007). Seismic hazard assessment: management of uncertainty
and validation, in Proceedings of the 2007 intermediate conference
Società Italiana di Statistica, CLEUP, Padova, 351–360.
Albarello, D., and M. Mucciarelli (2002). Seismic hazard estimates from illdefined
macroseismic data at a site, Pure Appl. Geophys. 159, no. 6,
1289–1304.
Albarello, D., R. Azzaro, M. S. Barbano, S. D’Amico, V. D’Amico, R.
Rotondi, T. Tuvè, and G. Zonno (2007). Valutazioni di pericolosità
sismica in termini di intensità macrosismica utilizzando metodi di sito,
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) Dipartimento
della Protezione Civile (DPC) Project S1.
Albarello, D., V. Bosi, F. Bramerini, A. Lucantoni, G. Naso, L. Peruzza, A.
Rebez, F. Sabetta, and D. Slejko (2000). Carte di Pericolosità sismica
del territorio nazionale, Quad. Geofis. 12, 1–8.
Albarello, D., F. Bramerini, V. D’Amico, A. Lucantoni, and G. Naso (2002).
Italian intensity hazard maps: a comparison of results from different
methodologies, Boll. Geof. Teor. Appl. 43, 249–262.
Albarello, D., R. Camassi, and A. Rebez (2001). Detection of space and time
heterogeneity in the completeness of a seismic catalog by a statistical
approach: an application to the Italian area, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 91,
1694–1703.
Algermissen, S. Th., D. M. Perkins, P. C. Thenhaus, S. L. Hanson, and B. L.
Bender (1982). Probabilistic estimates of maximum acceleration and
velocity in rock in the contiguous United States, U.S. Geol. Surv.
Open-File Rept. 82-1033, 107 pp.
Azzaro, R., M. S. Barbano, A. Moroni, M. Mucciarelli, and M. Stucchi
(1999). The seismic history of Catania, J. Seism. 3, 235–252.
Bakun,W. H. (2006). Estimating locations and magnitudes of earthquakes in
Southern California from modified Mercalli intensities, Bull. Seismol.
Soc. Am. 96, 1278–1295.
Bender, B. (1983). Maximum likelihood estimation of b values for magnitude
grouped data, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 73, 831–851.
Bender, B., and D. M. Perkins (1987). SeisriskIII: a computer program
for seismic hazard estimation, U.S. Geol. Surv. Open-File Rept. 1772,
1–48.
Bozkurt, S. B., R. S. Stein, and S. Toda (2007). Forecasting probabilistic
seismic shaking for greater Tokyo from 400 years of intensity observations,
Earthq. Spectra 23, no. 3, 525–546.
Carletti, F., and P. Gasperini (2003). Lateral variations of seismic intensity
attenuation in Italy, Geophys. J. Int. 155, 839–856.
Coppersmith, K. J., and R. R. Youngs (1986). Capturing uncertainty in
probabilistic seismic hazard assessments within intraplate environments,
in Proc. of the Third U.S. National Conference on Earthquake
Engineering, 24–28 August 1986, Charleston, South Carolina, Vol. 1,
Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Berkeley, California,
301–312.
Cornell, C. A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bull. Seismol. Soc.
Am. 58, 1583–1606.
Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani (CPTI) Working Group (2004).
Catalogo parametrico dei terremoti Italiani, Ed. Compositori, Bologna,
Italy, 88 pp.
D’Amico, V., and D. Albarello (2007). Codice per il calcolo della pericolosità
sismica da dati di sito: SASHA (site approach to seismic hazard
assessment), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC) Project S1.
D’Amico, V., and D. Albarello (2008). SASHA: a computer program to assess
seismic hazard from intensity data, Seism. Res. Lett., 79, no. 5,
663–671.
D’Amico, V., D. Albarello, and M. Mucciarelli (2002). Validation through
HVSR measurements of a method for the quick detection of site amplification
from intensity data: an application to a seismic area in
Northern Italy, Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng. 22, 475–483.
Electric Power Research Insititute (EPRI) (1986). Seismic hazard methodology
for the Central and Eastern United States, EPRI report number
NP-4726.
Faccioli, E., and C. Cauzzi (2006). Macroseismic intensities for seismic scenarios
estimated from instrumentally based correlations, in Proc. of the
First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology,
paper number 569.
Faenza, L., W. Marzocchi, and E. Boschi (2003). A non-parametric hazard
model to characterize the spatio-temporal occurrence of large earthquakes:
an application to the Italian catalogue, Geophys. J. Int.
155, 521–531.
Frankel, A. (1995). Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern
United States, Seism. Res. Lett. 66, 8–21.
Gallipoli, M. R., D. Albarello, M. Mucciarelli, V. Lapenna, M. Schiattarella,
and G. Calvano (2002). Hints about site amplification effects comparing
macroseismic hazard estimate with microtremor measurements: the
Agri Valley (Italy) example, J. Earthq. Eng. 7, no. 1, 51–72.
Giardini, D. (Editor) (1999). The Global seismic hazard assessment program
(GSHAP) 1992–1999, Ann. Geofis. 42, no. 6, 957–1230.
Gómez, J. B., and A. F. Pacheco (2004). The minimalist model of characteristic
earthquakes as a useful tool for description of the recurrence of
large earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 94, 1960–1967.
Klügel, J.-U. (2005). Problems in the application of the SSHAC probability
method for assessing earthquake hazards at Swiss nuclear power
plants, Eng. Geol. 78, 285–307.
Kulkarni, R. B., R. R. Youngs, and K. J. Coppersmith (1984). Assessment of
the confidence intervals for results of seismic hazard analysis, in Proc.
of the 8th World Conference of Earthquake Engineering, San Francisco,
Vol. 1, 263–270.
Lapajne, J., B. Sket Motnikar, and P. Zupancic (2003). Probabilistic seismic
hazard assessment methodology for distributed seismicity, Bull.
Seismol. Soc. Am. 93, 2502–2515.
Magri, L., M. Mucciarelli, and D. Albarello (1994). Estimates of site seismicity
rates using ill-defined macroseismic data, Pure Appl. Geophys.
143, 618–632.
Mappa di Pericolosità Sismica (MPS) Working Group (2004). Redazione
della mappa di pericolosità sismica prevista dall’Ordinanza PCM
3274 del 20 marzo 2003. Rapporto conclusivo per il Dipartimento
della Protezione Civile, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
(INGV), Milano-Roma, 65 pp. and 5 appendices.
Margottini, C., D. Molin, and L. Serva (1992). Intensity versus ground
motion: a new approach using Italian data, Eng. Geol. 33, no. 1,
45–58.
Meletti, C., F. Galadini, G. Valensise, M. Stucchi, R. Basili, S. Barba, G.
Vannucci, and E. Boschi (2008). A seismic source zone model for
the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory, Tectonophysics
450, 85–108.
Monachesi, G., L. Peruzza, D. Slejko, and M. Stucchi (1994). Seismic hazard
assessment using intensity point data, Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng. 13,
219–226.
Mucciarelli, M. (2005). What is a surprise earthquake? The example of the
2002, San Giuliano (Italy) event, Ann. Geophys. 48, 273–278.
Mucciarelli, M., L. Peruzza, and P. Caroli (2000). Tuning of seismic hazard
estimates by means of observed site intensities, J. Earthq. Eng.
4, 141–159.
Mucciarelli, M., G. Valensise, M. R. Gallipoli, and R. Caputo (2000). Reappraisal
of a XVI century earthquake combining historical, geological
and instrumental information, in Proc. of the 1st Workshop of E.S.C.
on Historical Seismology, Macerata (Italy), V. Castelli (Editor).
Musson, R. M. W. (2005). Intensity attenuation in the UK, J. Seism. 9,
73–86.
Musson, R. M.W. (2006). Objective validation of seismic hazard models, in
Proc. of the 13th World conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver,
paper number 2492.
Musson, R. M. W., K. J. Coppersmith, J. J. Bommer, N. Deichmann, G. R.
Toro, H. Bungum, F. Cotton, F. Scherbaum, D. Slejko, and N. A.
Abrahamson (2005). Evaluating hazard results for Switzerland and
how not to do it: a discussion of “Problems in the application of
the SSHAC probability method for assessing earthquake hazards at
Swiss nuclear power plants” by J.-U. Kluegel, Eng. Geol. 82, 43–55.
Papoulia, J., and D. Slejko (1997). Seismic hazard assessment in the Ionian
Islands based on observed macroseismic intensities, Nat. Hazards 14,
179–187.
Pasolini, C., D. Albarello, P. Gasperini, V. D’Amico, and B. Lolli (2008).
The attenuation of seismic intensity in Italy, part II: Modeling and validation,
Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 98, 692–708.
Slejko, D., L. Peruzza, and A. Rebez (1998). Seismic hazard maps of Italy,
Ann. Geofis. 41, 183–214.
Stirling, M., and M. Petersen (2006). Comparison of the historical record
of earthquake hazard with seismic hazard models for New Zealand
and the Continental United States, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 96, no. 6,
1978–1994.
Stucchi, M., R. Camassi, A. Rovida, M. Locati, E. Ercolani, C. Meletti, P.
Migliavacca, F. Bernardini, and R. Azzaro (2007). DBMI04, il database
delle osservazioni macrosismiche dei terremoti italiani utilizzate
per la compilazione del catalogo parametrico CPTI04, Quad. Geofis.
49, 1–38: also available at http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/DBMI04/ (last accessed
September 2008).
Woo, G. (1996). Kernel estimation method for seismic hazard area source
modeling, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 86, 353–362.
hazard estimate in the Alps and Apennines (Italy) using smoothed historical
seismicity and regionalized predictive ground motion relationships,
Boll. Geofis. Teor. Appl. 45, 285–304.
Albarello, D. (2007). Seismic hazard assessment: management of uncertainty
and validation, in Proceedings of the 2007 intermediate conference
Società Italiana di Statistica, CLEUP, Padova, 351–360.
Albarello, D., and M. Mucciarelli (2002). Seismic hazard estimates from illdefined
macroseismic data at a site, Pure Appl. Geophys. 159, no. 6,
1289–1304.
Albarello, D., R. Azzaro, M. S. Barbano, S. D’Amico, V. D’Amico, R.
Rotondi, T. Tuvè, and G. Zonno (2007). Valutazioni di pericolosità
sismica in termini di intensità macrosismica utilizzando metodi di sito,
Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV) Dipartimento
della Protezione Civile (DPC) Project S1.
Albarello, D., V. Bosi, F. Bramerini, A. Lucantoni, G. Naso, L. Peruzza, A.
Rebez, F. Sabetta, and D. Slejko (2000). Carte di Pericolosità sismica
del territorio nazionale, Quad. Geofis. 12, 1–8.
Albarello, D., F. Bramerini, V. D’Amico, A. Lucantoni, and G. Naso (2002).
Italian intensity hazard maps: a comparison of results from different
methodologies, Boll. Geof. Teor. Appl. 43, 249–262.
Albarello, D., R. Camassi, and A. Rebez (2001). Detection of space and time
heterogeneity in the completeness of a seismic catalog by a statistical
approach: an application to the Italian area, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 91,
1694–1703.
Algermissen, S. Th., D. M. Perkins, P. C. Thenhaus, S. L. Hanson, and B. L.
Bender (1982). Probabilistic estimates of maximum acceleration and
velocity in rock in the contiguous United States, U.S. Geol. Surv.
Open-File Rept. 82-1033, 107 pp.
Azzaro, R., M. S. Barbano, A. Moroni, M. Mucciarelli, and M. Stucchi
(1999). The seismic history of Catania, J. Seism. 3, 235–252.
Bakun,W. H. (2006). Estimating locations and magnitudes of earthquakes in
Southern California from modified Mercalli intensities, Bull. Seismol.
Soc. Am. 96, 1278–1295.
Bender, B. (1983). Maximum likelihood estimation of b values for magnitude
grouped data, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 73, 831–851.
Bender, B., and D. M. Perkins (1987). SeisriskIII: a computer program
for seismic hazard estimation, U.S. Geol. Surv. Open-File Rept. 1772,
1–48.
Bozkurt, S. B., R. S. Stein, and S. Toda (2007). Forecasting probabilistic
seismic shaking for greater Tokyo from 400 years of intensity observations,
Earthq. Spectra 23, no. 3, 525–546.
Carletti, F., and P. Gasperini (2003). Lateral variations of seismic intensity
attenuation in Italy, Geophys. J. Int. 155, 839–856.
Coppersmith, K. J., and R. R. Youngs (1986). Capturing uncertainty in
probabilistic seismic hazard assessments within intraplate environments,
in Proc. of the Third U.S. National Conference on Earthquake
Engineering, 24–28 August 1986, Charleston, South Carolina, Vol. 1,
Earthquake Engineering Research Institute, Berkeley, California,
301–312.
Cornell, C. A. (1968). Engineering seismic risk analysis, Bull. Seismol. Soc.
Am. 58, 1583–1606.
Catalogo Parametrico dei Terremoti Italiani (CPTI) Working Group (2004).
Catalogo parametrico dei terremoti Italiani, Ed. Compositori, Bologna,
Italy, 88 pp.
D’Amico, V., and D. Albarello (2007). Codice per il calcolo della pericolosità
sismica da dati di sito: SASHA (site approach to seismic hazard
assessment), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia (INGV)
Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC) Project S1.
D’Amico, V., and D. Albarello (2008). SASHA: a computer program to assess
seismic hazard from intensity data, Seism. Res. Lett., 79, no. 5,
663–671.
D’Amico, V., D. Albarello, and M. Mucciarelli (2002). Validation through
HVSR measurements of a method for the quick detection of site amplification
from intensity data: an application to a seismic area in
Northern Italy, Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng. 22, 475–483.
Electric Power Research Insititute (EPRI) (1986). Seismic hazard methodology
for the Central and Eastern United States, EPRI report number
NP-4726.
Faccioli, E., and C. Cauzzi (2006). Macroseismic intensities for seismic scenarios
estimated from instrumentally based correlations, in Proc. of the
First European Conference on Earthquake Engineering and Seismology,
paper number 569.
Faenza, L., W. Marzocchi, and E. Boschi (2003). A non-parametric hazard
model to characterize the spatio-temporal occurrence of large earthquakes:
an application to the Italian catalogue, Geophys. J. Int.
155, 521–531.
Frankel, A. (1995). Mapping seismic hazard in the central and eastern
United States, Seism. Res. Lett. 66, 8–21.
Gallipoli, M. R., D. Albarello, M. Mucciarelli, V. Lapenna, M. Schiattarella,
and G. Calvano (2002). Hints about site amplification effects comparing
macroseismic hazard estimate with microtremor measurements: the
Agri Valley (Italy) example, J. Earthq. Eng. 7, no. 1, 51–72.
Giardini, D. (Editor) (1999). The Global seismic hazard assessment program
(GSHAP) 1992–1999, Ann. Geofis. 42, no. 6, 957–1230.
Gómez, J. B., and A. F. Pacheco (2004). The minimalist model of characteristic
earthquakes as a useful tool for description of the recurrence of
large earthquakes, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 94, 1960–1967.
Klügel, J.-U. (2005). Problems in the application of the SSHAC probability
method for assessing earthquake hazards at Swiss nuclear power
plants, Eng. Geol. 78, 285–307.
Kulkarni, R. B., R. R. Youngs, and K. J. Coppersmith (1984). Assessment of
the confidence intervals for results of seismic hazard analysis, in Proc.
of the 8th World Conference of Earthquake Engineering, San Francisco,
Vol. 1, 263–270.
Lapajne, J., B. Sket Motnikar, and P. Zupancic (2003). Probabilistic seismic
hazard assessment methodology for distributed seismicity, Bull.
Seismol. Soc. Am. 93, 2502–2515.
Magri, L., M. Mucciarelli, and D. Albarello (1994). Estimates of site seismicity
rates using ill-defined macroseismic data, Pure Appl. Geophys.
143, 618–632.
Mappa di Pericolosità Sismica (MPS) Working Group (2004). Redazione
della mappa di pericolosità sismica prevista dall’Ordinanza PCM
3274 del 20 marzo 2003. Rapporto conclusivo per il Dipartimento
della Protezione Civile, Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia
(INGV), Milano-Roma, 65 pp. and 5 appendices.
Margottini, C., D. Molin, and L. Serva (1992). Intensity versus ground
motion: a new approach using Italian data, Eng. Geol. 33, no. 1,
45–58.
Meletti, C., F. Galadini, G. Valensise, M. Stucchi, R. Basili, S. Barba, G.
Vannucci, and E. Boschi (2008). A seismic source zone model for
the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory, Tectonophysics
450, 85–108.
Monachesi, G., L. Peruzza, D. Slejko, and M. Stucchi (1994). Seismic hazard
assessment using intensity point data, Soil Dyn. Earthq. Eng. 13,
219–226.
Mucciarelli, M. (2005). What is a surprise earthquake? The example of the
2002, San Giuliano (Italy) event, Ann. Geophys. 48, 273–278.
Mucciarelli, M., L. Peruzza, and P. Caroli (2000). Tuning of seismic hazard
estimates by means of observed site intensities, J. Earthq. Eng.
4, 141–159.
Mucciarelli, M., G. Valensise, M. R. Gallipoli, and R. Caputo (2000). Reappraisal
of a XVI century earthquake combining historical, geological
and instrumental information, in Proc. of the 1st Workshop of E.S.C.
on Historical Seismology, Macerata (Italy), V. Castelli (Editor).
Musson, R. M. W. (2005). Intensity attenuation in the UK, J. Seism. 9,
73–86.
Musson, R. M.W. (2006). Objective validation of seismic hazard models, in
Proc. of the 13th World conference on Earthquake Engineering, Vancouver,
paper number 2492.
Musson, R. M. W., K. J. Coppersmith, J. J. Bommer, N. Deichmann, G. R.
Toro, H. Bungum, F. Cotton, F. Scherbaum, D. Slejko, and N. A.
Abrahamson (2005). Evaluating hazard results for Switzerland and
how not to do it: a discussion of “Problems in the application of
the SSHAC probability method for assessing earthquake hazards at
Swiss nuclear power plants” by J.-U. Kluegel, Eng. Geol. 82, 43–55.
Papoulia, J., and D. Slejko (1997). Seismic hazard assessment in the Ionian
Islands based on observed macroseismic intensities, Nat. Hazards 14,
179–187.
Pasolini, C., D. Albarello, P. Gasperini, V. D’Amico, and B. Lolli (2008).
The attenuation of seismic intensity in Italy, part II: Modeling and validation,
Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 98, 692–708.
Slejko, D., L. Peruzza, and A. Rebez (1998). Seismic hazard maps of Italy,
Ann. Geofis. 41, 183–214.
Stirling, M., and M. Petersen (2006). Comparison of the historical record
of earthquake hazard with seismic hazard models for New Zealand
and the Continental United States, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 96, no. 6,
1978–1994.
Stucchi, M., R. Camassi, A. Rovida, M. Locati, E. Ercolani, C. Meletti, P.
Migliavacca, F. Bernardini, and R. Azzaro (2007). DBMI04, il database
delle osservazioni macrosismiche dei terremoti italiani utilizzate
per la compilazione del catalogo parametrico CPTI04, Quad. Geofis.
49, 1–38: also available at http://emidius.mi.ingv.it/DBMI04/ (last accessed
September 2008).
Woo, G. (1996). Kernel estimation method for seismic hazard area source
modeling, Bull. Seismol. Soc. Am. 86, 353–362.
Type
article