Perturbation of earthquake probability for interacting faults by static Coulomb stress changes

This work aims at the assessment of
the occurrence probability of future earthquakes
on the Italian territory, conditional to the time
elapsed since the last characteristic earthquake on
a fault and to the history of the following events
on the neighbouring active sources. We start from
the estimate of the probability of occurrence in
the period 2007–2036 for a characteristic earthquake
on geological sources, based on a timedependent
renewal model, released in the frame
of Project DPC-INGV S2 (2004–2007) “Assessing
the seismogenic potential and the probability
of strong earthquakes in Italy”. The occurrence
rate of a characteristic earthquake is calculated,
taking into account both permanent (clock advance)
and temporary (rate-and-state) perturbations.
The analysis has been carried out on a wide
area of Central and Southern Italy, containing 32 seismogenetic sources reported in the DISS
3.0.2 database. The results show that the estimated
effect of earthquake interaction in this region is
small if compared with the uncertainties affecting
the statistical model used for the basic timedependent
hazard assessment.

This
work was partially supported for the years 2005–2007 by
the Project S2—Assessing the seismogenic potential and
the probability of strong earthquakes in Italy (Slejko and
Valensise coord.)—S2 Project has benefited from funding
provided by the Italian Presidenza del Consiglio dei
Ministri–Dipartimento della Protezione Civile (DPC). Scientific
papers funded by DPC do not represent its official
opinion and policies

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This work aims at the assessment of
the occurrence probability of future earthquakes
on the Italian territory, conditional to the time
elapsed since the last characteristic earthquake on
a fault and to the history of the following events
on the neighbouring active sources.