Probabilistic tephra hazard maps for the Neapolitan area: Quantitative volcanological study of Campi Flegrei eruptions
Author(s)
Language
English
Obiettivo Specifico
4.3. TTC - Scenari di pericolosità vulcanica
Status
Published
JCR Journal
JCR Journal
Peer review journal
Yes
Journal
Issue/vol(year)
/113 (2008)
Publisher
A.G.U.
Pages (printed)
B07203
Date Issued
2008
Abstract
Tephra fall is a relevant hazard of Campi Flegrei caldera (Southern Italy), due to the
high vulnerability of Naples metropolitan area to such an event. Here, tephra derive from
magmatic as well as phreatomagmatic activity. On the basis of both new and literature
data on known, past eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), grain size parameters,
velocity at the vent, column heights and erupted mass), and factors controlling tephra
dispersion (wind velocity and direction), 2D numerical simulations of fallout dispersion
and deposition have been performed for a large number of case events. A bayesian
inversion has been applied to retrieve the best values of critical parameters (e.g., vertical
mass distribution, diffusion coefficients, velocity at the vent), not directly inferable by
volcanological study. Simulations are run in parallel on multiple processors to allow a
fully probabilistic analysis, on a very large catalogue preserving the statistical proprieties
of past eruptive history. Using simulation results, hazard maps have been computed for
different scenarios: upper limit scenario (worst-expected scenario), eruption-range
scenario, and whole-eruption scenario. Results indicate that although high hazard
characterizes the Campi Flegrei caldera, the territory to the east of the caldera center,
including the whole district of Naples, is exposed to high hazard values due to the
dominant westerly winds. Consistently with the stratigraphic evidence of nature of past
eruptions, our numerical simulations reveal that even in the case of a subplinian eruption
(VEI = 3), Naples is exposed to tephra fall thicknesses of some decimeters, thereby
exceeding the critical limit for roof collapse. Because of the total number of people
living in Campi Flegrei and the city of Naples (ca. two million of inhabitants), the tephra
fallout risk related to a plinian eruption of Campi Flegrei largely matches or exceeds
the risk related to a similar eruption at Vesuvius.
high vulnerability of Naples metropolitan area to such an event. Here, tephra derive from
magmatic as well as phreatomagmatic activity. On the basis of both new and literature
data on known, past eruptions (Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI), grain size parameters,
velocity at the vent, column heights and erupted mass), and factors controlling tephra
dispersion (wind velocity and direction), 2D numerical simulations of fallout dispersion
and deposition have been performed for a large number of case events. A bayesian
inversion has been applied to retrieve the best values of critical parameters (e.g., vertical
mass distribution, diffusion coefficients, velocity at the vent), not directly inferable by
volcanological study. Simulations are run in parallel on multiple processors to allow a
fully probabilistic analysis, on a very large catalogue preserving the statistical proprieties
of past eruptive history. Using simulation results, hazard maps have been computed for
different scenarios: upper limit scenario (worst-expected scenario), eruption-range
scenario, and whole-eruption scenario. Results indicate that although high hazard
characterizes the Campi Flegrei caldera, the territory to the east of the caldera center,
including the whole district of Naples, is exposed to high hazard values due to the
dominant westerly winds. Consistently with the stratigraphic evidence of nature of past
eruptions, our numerical simulations reveal that even in the case of a subplinian eruption
(VEI = 3), Naples is exposed to tephra fall thicknesses of some decimeters, thereby
exceeding the critical limit for roof collapse. Because of the total number of people
living in Campi Flegrei and the city of Naples (ca. two million of inhabitants), the tephra
fallout risk related to a plinian eruption of Campi Flegrei largely matches or exceeds
the risk related to a similar eruption at Vesuvius.
References
Bonadonna, C., G. G. J. Ernst, and R. S. J. Sparks (1998), Thickness
variations and volume estimates of tephra fall deposits: The importance
of particle Reynolds number, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 81(3–4),
173– 187.
Bonadonna, C., G. Macedonio, and R. S. J. Sparks (2002), Numerical
modeling of tephra fall-out associated with dome collapses and vulcanian
explosions: Application to hazard assessment on Montserrat, Geol. Soc.
London Mem., 21, 517– 537.
Bonadonna, C., C. B. Connor, B. F. Houghton, L. Connor, M. Byrne, A.
Laing, and T. K. Hincks (2005), Probabilistic modeling tephra dispersal:
Hazard assessment of a multiphase rhyolitic eruption at Tarawera, New
Zealand, J. Geophys. Res., 110, B03203, doi:10.1029/2003JB002896.
Bursik, M. I., R. S. J. Sparks, J. S. Gilbert, and S. N. Carey (1992),
Sedimentation of tephra by volcanic plumes. Part I: Theory and its comparison
with a study of the Fogo A Plinian deposit, Sao Miguel (Azores),
Bull. Volcanol., 54, 329– 344.
Carey, S., and R. S. J. Sparks (1986), Quantitative models of the fallout and
dispersal of tephra from volcanic eruption columns, Bull. Volcanol., 48,
109– 125.
Cherubini, A., S. M. Petrazzuoli, and S. Zuccaro (2001), Vulnerabilita`
sismica dell’area Vesuviana, p. 190, CNR-Gruppo Nazionale per la Difesa
dai Terremoti, Roma, ISBN 88-88151-04-4.
Cornell, W., S. Carey, and H. Sigurdsson (1983), Computer simulation of
transport and deposition of the Campanian Y-5 ash, J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res., 17, 89– 109.
Connor, L. J., and C. B. Connor (2006), Inversion is the key to dispersion:
Understanding eruption dynamics by inverting tephra fallout, in Statistics
in Volcanology, edited by H. M. Mader et al., p. 296, Geol. Soc., London.
Connor, B. C., B. E. Hill, B. Winfrey, N. M. Franklin, and P. C. La Femina
(2001), Estimation of volcanic hazards from tephra fallout, Nat. Hazards,
2, 33– 42.
D’Antonio, M., L. Civetta, G. Orsi, L. Pappalardo, M. Piochi, A. Carandente,
S. de Vita, M. Di Vito, and R. Isaia (1999), The present state of the
magmatic system of the Campi Flegrei caldera based on a reconstruction
of its behavior in the past 12 ka, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 91, 247–
268.
B07203 MASTROLORENZO ET AL.: TEPHRA FALL-OUT HAZARD AT CAMPI FLEGREI
13 of 14
B07203 Deino, A., G. Curtis, and M. Rosi (1992), 40Ar/39Ar dating of the Campanian
Ignimbrite, Campanian Region, Italy, IGC Kyoto, Japan 24 Aug.– 3
Sept., Abstracts, 3, 633.
Deino, A. L., G. Orsi, S. de Vita, and M. Piochi (2004), The age of
the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff caldera-forming eruption (Campi Flegrei
caldera - Italy) assessed by 40Ar/39Ar dating method, J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res., 133, 157– 170.
De’Gennaro, M., A. Incoronato, G. Mastrolorenzo, M. R. Adabbo, and
G. Spina (1999), Depositional mechanisms and alteration processes in
different types of pyroclastic deposits in Campi Flegrei volcanic field
(Southern Italy), J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 82, 113– 137.
De Vivo, B., G. Rolandi, P. B. Gans, A. Calvert,W. A. Bohrson, F. J. Spera,
and H. E. Belkin (2001), New constraints on the pyroclastic eruptive
history of the Campanian volcanic Plain (Italy), Mineral Petrol., 73,
47– 65.
de Vita, S., et al. (1999), The Agnano-Monte Spina eruption (4100 years
b.p.) in the restless Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), J. Volcanol. Geotherm.
Res., 91, 269–301.
Di Girolamo, P., M. R. Ghiara, L. Lirer, R. Munno, G. Rolandi, and
D. Stanzione (1984), Vulcanologia e Petrologia dei Campi Flegrei, Boll.
Soc. Geol. It., 103, 349– 413.
Di Vito, M., L. Lirer, G. Mastrolorenzo, and G. Rolandi (1987), The 1538
Monte Nuovo eruption (Campi Flegrei Italy), Bull. Volcanol., 49, 608–615.
Di Vito, M. A., R. Isaia, G. Orsi, J. Southon, M. D’Antonio, S. de Vita,
L. Pappalardo, and M. Piochi (1999), Volcanic and deformation history of
the Campi Flegrei caldera in the past 12 ka, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res.,
91, 221– 246.
Dvorak, J. J., and G. Berrino (1991), Recent ground movement and seismicity
activity in Campi Flegrei, Southern Italy: Episodic growth of a
resurgent dome, J. Geophys. Res., 96(B2), 2309– 2323.
Dvorak, J. J., and G. Mastrolorenzo (1991), The mechanism of recent
vertical crustal movements in Campi Flegrei caldera, Southern Italy,
Geol. Soc. Am., Special Paper, 263, 1 – 48.
Frielander, S. K., (2000), Smoke, Dust and Haze: Fundamentals of Aerosol
Behaviour, John Wiley, New York.
Gaeta, F. S., G. De Natale, F. Peluso, G. Mastrolorenzo, D. Castagnolo,
C. Troise, F. Pingue, D. G. Mita, and S. Rossano (1998), Genesis and
evolution of unrest episodes at Campi Flegrei caldera: The role of the
thermal fluid-dynamical processes in the geothermal system, J. Geophys.
Res., 103(B9), 20,921– 20,933.
Hurst, A.W., and R. Turner (1999), Performance of the program ASHFALL
for forecasting ash-fall during the 1995 and 1996 eruptions of Ruhapeu
Volcano, N. Z., J. Geol. Geophys., 42(4), 615–622.
Isaia, R., M. D ´ Antonio, F. Dell´Erba, M. Di Vito, and G. Orsi (2004), The
Astroni volcano: The only example of closely spaced eruptions in the
same vent area during the recent history of the Campi Flegrei caldera
(Italy), J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 133, 171– 192.
Lirer, L., G. Mastrolorenzo, and G. Rolandi (1987), Un’eruzione pliniana
nell’attivita` recente dei Campi Flegrei, Boll. Soc. Geol. It., 106, 461–473.
Mastrolorenzo, G. (1994), Averno tuff ring in Campi Flegrei (south Italy),
Bull. Volcanol., 56, 561– 572. Mastrolorenzo, G., L. Brachi, and A. Canzanella (2001), Vesicularity of
various types of pyroclastic deposits of Campi Flegrei volcanic field:
Evidence of analogies in magma rise and vesiculation mechanisms,
J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 109, 41– 53.
Menke, W., (1984), Geophysical Data Analysis: Discrete Inverse Theory,
Elsevier, New York.
Orsi, G., S. de Vita, and M. A. Di Vito (1996), The restless resurgent Campi
Flegrei nested caldera (Italy): Constraints on its evolution and configuration,
J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 74, 179– 214.
Pappalardo, L., L. Civetta, M. D’Antonio, A. L. Deino, M. A. Di Vito,
G. Orsi, A. Carandente, S. de Vita, R. Isaia, and M. Piochi (1999),
Chemical and isotopical evolution of the Phlegraean magmatic system
before the Campanian Ignimbrite (37 ka) and the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff
(12 ka) eruptions, J. Volcanol. Geotherm Res., 91, 141– 166.
Perrotta, A., and C. Scarpati (2003), Volume partition between the plinian
and co-ignimbrite air fall deposits of the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption,
Mineral. Petrol., 79(1), 67– 78.
Piochi, M., G. Mastrolorenzo, and L. Pappalardo (2005), Magma ascent and
eruptive processes from textural and compositional features of Monte
Nuovo pyroclastic products, Bull. Volcanol., 67(7), 663– 678.
Pyle, D. M. (1989), The thickness, volume and grainsize of tephra fall
deposits, Bull. Volcanol., 51, 1 –15.
Rosi, M., and A. Sbrana (1987), Phlegraean Fields, Quaderni de‘‘La Ricerca
Scientifica’’, pp. 114– 175, 114 CNR, Roma.
Rosi, M., L. Vezzoli, A. Castelmenzano, and G. Grieco (1999), Plinian
pumice fall deposit of the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption (Phlegrean
Fields, Italy), J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 91, 179–198.
Rossano, S., G. Mastrolorenzo, and G. De Natale (1998), Computer simulations
of pyroclastic flows on Somma-Vesuvius volcano, J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res., 82, 113– 137.
Rossano, S., G. Mastrolorenzo, and G. De Natale (2004), Numerical simulation
of pyroclastic density currents on Campi Flegrei topography: A
tool for statistical hazard estimation, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 132,
1 –14.
Spence, R., I. Kelman, P. Baxter, G. Zuccaro, and S. Petrazzuoli (2005),
Residential building and occupant vulnerability to Tephra Fall, Nat. Hazards
Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 477– 494.
Suzuki, T. (1983), A theoretical Model for Dispersion of Tephra. Arc Volcanism:
Physics and Tectonics, edited by D. Shimozuru and I. Yokoyama,
pp. 95– 113, Terra Sci. (TERRAPUB), Tokyo.
U.S. Standard Atmosphere (1976), U. S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D. C.
Wohletz, K., G. Orsi, and S. de Vita (1995), Eruptive mechanisms of the
Neapolitan Yellow Tuff interpreted from stratigraphic, chemical, and
granulometric data, J. Volcanol. Geother. Res., 67, 263– 290.
Woods, A. W. (1988), The fluid dynamic and thermodynamics of eruption
columns, Bull. Volcanol., 50, 169– 193.
variations and volume estimates of tephra fall deposits: The importance
of particle Reynolds number, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 81(3–4),
173– 187.
Bonadonna, C., G. Macedonio, and R. S. J. Sparks (2002), Numerical
modeling of tephra fall-out associated with dome collapses and vulcanian
explosions: Application to hazard assessment on Montserrat, Geol. Soc.
London Mem., 21, 517– 537.
Bonadonna, C., C. B. Connor, B. F. Houghton, L. Connor, M. Byrne, A.
Laing, and T. K. Hincks (2005), Probabilistic modeling tephra dispersal:
Hazard assessment of a multiphase rhyolitic eruption at Tarawera, New
Zealand, J. Geophys. Res., 110, B03203, doi:10.1029/2003JB002896.
Bursik, M. I., R. S. J. Sparks, J. S. Gilbert, and S. N. Carey (1992),
Sedimentation of tephra by volcanic plumes. Part I: Theory and its comparison
with a study of the Fogo A Plinian deposit, Sao Miguel (Azores),
Bull. Volcanol., 54, 329– 344.
Carey, S., and R. S. J. Sparks (1986), Quantitative models of the fallout and
dispersal of tephra from volcanic eruption columns, Bull. Volcanol., 48,
109– 125.
Cherubini, A., S. M. Petrazzuoli, and S. Zuccaro (2001), Vulnerabilita`
sismica dell’area Vesuviana, p. 190, CNR-Gruppo Nazionale per la Difesa
dai Terremoti, Roma, ISBN 88-88151-04-4.
Cornell, W., S. Carey, and H. Sigurdsson (1983), Computer simulation of
transport and deposition of the Campanian Y-5 ash, J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res., 17, 89– 109.
Connor, L. J., and C. B. Connor (2006), Inversion is the key to dispersion:
Understanding eruption dynamics by inverting tephra fallout, in Statistics
in Volcanology, edited by H. M. Mader et al., p. 296, Geol. Soc., London.
Connor, B. C., B. E. Hill, B. Winfrey, N. M. Franklin, and P. C. La Femina
(2001), Estimation of volcanic hazards from tephra fallout, Nat. Hazards,
2, 33– 42.
D’Antonio, M., L. Civetta, G. Orsi, L. Pappalardo, M. Piochi, A. Carandente,
S. de Vita, M. Di Vito, and R. Isaia (1999), The present state of the
magmatic system of the Campi Flegrei caldera based on a reconstruction
of its behavior in the past 12 ka, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 91, 247–
268.
B07203 MASTROLORENZO ET AL.: TEPHRA FALL-OUT HAZARD AT CAMPI FLEGREI
13 of 14
B07203 Deino, A., G. Curtis, and M. Rosi (1992), 40Ar/39Ar dating of the Campanian
Ignimbrite, Campanian Region, Italy, IGC Kyoto, Japan 24 Aug.– 3
Sept., Abstracts, 3, 633.
Deino, A. L., G. Orsi, S. de Vita, and M. Piochi (2004), The age of
the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff caldera-forming eruption (Campi Flegrei
caldera - Italy) assessed by 40Ar/39Ar dating method, J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res., 133, 157– 170.
De’Gennaro, M., A. Incoronato, G. Mastrolorenzo, M. R. Adabbo, and
G. Spina (1999), Depositional mechanisms and alteration processes in
different types of pyroclastic deposits in Campi Flegrei volcanic field
(Southern Italy), J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 82, 113– 137.
De Vivo, B., G. Rolandi, P. B. Gans, A. Calvert,W. A. Bohrson, F. J. Spera,
and H. E. Belkin (2001), New constraints on the pyroclastic eruptive
history of the Campanian volcanic Plain (Italy), Mineral Petrol., 73,
47– 65.
de Vita, S., et al. (1999), The Agnano-Monte Spina eruption (4100 years
b.p.) in the restless Campi Flegrei caldera (Italy), J. Volcanol. Geotherm.
Res., 91, 269–301.
Di Girolamo, P., M. R. Ghiara, L. Lirer, R. Munno, G. Rolandi, and
D. Stanzione (1984), Vulcanologia e Petrologia dei Campi Flegrei, Boll.
Soc. Geol. It., 103, 349– 413.
Di Vito, M., L. Lirer, G. Mastrolorenzo, and G. Rolandi (1987), The 1538
Monte Nuovo eruption (Campi Flegrei Italy), Bull. Volcanol., 49, 608–615.
Di Vito, M. A., R. Isaia, G. Orsi, J. Southon, M. D’Antonio, S. de Vita,
L. Pappalardo, and M. Piochi (1999), Volcanic and deformation history of
the Campi Flegrei caldera in the past 12 ka, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res.,
91, 221– 246.
Dvorak, J. J., and G. Berrino (1991), Recent ground movement and seismicity
activity in Campi Flegrei, Southern Italy: Episodic growth of a
resurgent dome, J. Geophys. Res., 96(B2), 2309– 2323.
Dvorak, J. J., and G. Mastrolorenzo (1991), The mechanism of recent
vertical crustal movements in Campi Flegrei caldera, Southern Italy,
Geol. Soc. Am., Special Paper, 263, 1 – 48.
Frielander, S. K., (2000), Smoke, Dust and Haze: Fundamentals of Aerosol
Behaviour, John Wiley, New York.
Gaeta, F. S., G. De Natale, F. Peluso, G. Mastrolorenzo, D. Castagnolo,
C. Troise, F. Pingue, D. G. Mita, and S. Rossano (1998), Genesis and
evolution of unrest episodes at Campi Flegrei caldera: The role of the
thermal fluid-dynamical processes in the geothermal system, J. Geophys.
Res., 103(B9), 20,921– 20,933.
Hurst, A.W., and R. Turner (1999), Performance of the program ASHFALL
for forecasting ash-fall during the 1995 and 1996 eruptions of Ruhapeu
Volcano, N. Z., J. Geol. Geophys., 42(4), 615–622.
Isaia, R., M. D ´ Antonio, F. Dell´Erba, M. Di Vito, and G. Orsi (2004), The
Astroni volcano: The only example of closely spaced eruptions in the
same vent area during the recent history of the Campi Flegrei caldera
(Italy), J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 133, 171– 192.
Lirer, L., G. Mastrolorenzo, and G. Rolandi (1987), Un’eruzione pliniana
nell’attivita` recente dei Campi Flegrei, Boll. Soc. Geol. It., 106, 461–473.
Mastrolorenzo, G. (1994), Averno tuff ring in Campi Flegrei (south Italy),
Bull. Volcanol., 56, 561– 572. Mastrolorenzo, G., L. Brachi, and A. Canzanella (2001), Vesicularity of
various types of pyroclastic deposits of Campi Flegrei volcanic field:
Evidence of analogies in magma rise and vesiculation mechanisms,
J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 109, 41– 53.
Menke, W., (1984), Geophysical Data Analysis: Discrete Inverse Theory,
Elsevier, New York.
Orsi, G., S. de Vita, and M. A. Di Vito (1996), The restless resurgent Campi
Flegrei nested caldera (Italy): Constraints on its evolution and configuration,
J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 74, 179– 214.
Pappalardo, L., L. Civetta, M. D’Antonio, A. L. Deino, M. A. Di Vito,
G. Orsi, A. Carandente, S. de Vita, R. Isaia, and M. Piochi (1999),
Chemical and isotopical evolution of the Phlegraean magmatic system
before the Campanian Ignimbrite (37 ka) and the Neapolitan Yellow Tuff
(12 ka) eruptions, J. Volcanol. Geotherm Res., 91, 141– 166.
Perrotta, A., and C. Scarpati (2003), Volume partition between the plinian
and co-ignimbrite air fall deposits of the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption,
Mineral. Petrol., 79(1), 67– 78.
Piochi, M., G. Mastrolorenzo, and L. Pappalardo (2005), Magma ascent and
eruptive processes from textural and compositional features of Monte
Nuovo pyroclastic products, Bull. Volcanol., 67(7), 663– 678.
Pyle, D. M. (1989), The thickness, volume and grainsize of tephra fall
deposits, Bull. Volcanol., 51, 1 –15.
Rosi, M., and A. Sbrana (1987), Phlegraean Fields, Quaderni de‘‘La Ricerca
Scientifica’’, pp. 114– 175, 114 CNR, Roma.
Rosi, M., L. Vezzoli, A. Castelmenzano, and G. Grieco (1999), Plinian
pumice fall deposit of the Campanian Ignimbrite eruption (Phlegrean
Fields, Italy), J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 91, 179–198.
Rossano, S., G. Mastrolorenzo, and G. De Natale (1998), Computer simulations
of pyroclastic flows on Somma-Vesuvius volcano, J. Volcanol.
Geotherm. Res., 82, 113– 137.
Rossano, S., G. Mastrolorenzo, and G. De Natale (2004), Numerical simulation
of pyroclastic density currents on Campi Flegrei topography: A
tool for statistical hazard estimation, J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res., 132,
1 –14.
Spence, R., I. Kelman, P. Baxter, G. Zuccaro, and S. Petrazzuoli (2005),
Residential building and occupant vulnerability to Tephra Fall, Nat. Hazards
Earth Syst. Sci., 5, 477– 494.
Suzuki, T. (1983), A theoretical Model for Dispersion of Tephra. Arc Volcanism:
Physics and Tectonics, edited by D. Shimozuru and I. Yokoyama,
pp. 95– 113, Terra Sci. (TERRAPUB), Tokyo.
U.S. Standard Atmosphere (1976), U. S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D. C.
Wohletz, K., G. Orsi, and S. de Vita (1995), Eruptive mechanisms of the
Neapolitan Yellow Tuff interpreted from stratigraphic, chemical, and
granulometric data, J. Volcanol. Geother. Res., 67, 263– 290.
Woods, A. W. (1988), The fluid dynamic and thermodynamics of eruption
columns, Bull. Volcanol., 50, 169– 193.
Type
article