Marzocchi, Warner

The purpose of this report is to discuss in detail the importance and prerogatives of quantitative volcanic hazard assessment and to describe the main features of a Bayesian model designed to achieve this goal. Ideas, models and results come out from the work made in the framework of the INGV-DPC V4 project, and partially from the application of the technique to Campi Flegrei (V3_2) and Vesuvius (V3_4). Here, we examine in depth the practical and philosophical implications of the approach, and report only a brief summary of the technical details that can be found on the cited literature.