Istituto Nazionale di Oceanografia e di Geofisica Sperimentale, Sgonico (Trieste), Italy

We develop new approaches to calculating 30-year probabilities for occurrence of moderate-to-large earthquakes in Italy. Geodetic techniques and finite-element modelling, aimed to reproduce a large amount of neotectonic data using thin-shell finite element, are used to separately calculate the expected seismicity rates inside seismogenic areas (polygons containing mapped faults and/or suspected or modelled faults). Thirty-year earthquake probabilities obtained from the two approaches show similarities in most of Italy: the largest probabilities are found in the southern Apennines, where they reach values between 10% and 20% for earthquakes of M W ≥ 6.0, and lower than 10% for events with an M W ≥ 6.5.