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Aloisio, Roberto
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- PublicationOpen AccessSpectral elements numerical simulation of the 2009 L’Aquila earthquake on a detailed reconstructed domain(2022)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;In this paper we simulate the earthquake that hit the city of L'Aquila on the 6th of April 2009 using SPEED (SPectral Elements in Elastodynamics with Discontinuous Galerkin), an open-source code able to simulate the propagation of seismic waves in complex three-dimensional (3D) domains. Our model includes an accurate 3D recon- struction of the Quaternary deposits, according to the most up-to-date data obtained from the Microzonation studies in Central Italy and a detailed model of the topography incorporated using a newly developed tool (May et al. 2021). The sensitivity of our results with respect to dfferent kinematic seismic sources is inves- tigated. The results obtained are in good agreement with the recordings at the available seismic stations at epicentral distances within a range of 20km. Finally, a blind source prediction scenario application shows a reasonably good agreement between simulations and recordings can be obtained by simulating stochastic rupture realizations with basic input data. These results, although limited to nine simulated scenarios, demonstrate that it is possible to obtain a satisfactory reconstruction of a ground shaking scenario employing a stochastic source constrained on a limited amount of ex-ante information. A similar approach can be used to model future and past earthquakes for which little or no information is typically available, with potential relevant implications for seismic risk assessment.136 26 - PublicationOpen AccessRandom Forest based estimate to assess the damages of future earthquakes: preliminary resultsIn this paper we present a case study where the Random Forest (RF) Classifier, has been used to estimate the damage to buildings caused by a (possible) future earthquake, starting from the data of past earthquakes. This prelaminar work is based on the Shakedado dataset, which contains information on buildings and ground shaking parameters for the six major earthquakes that occurred in Italy between 1981 and 2012. We perform the following two conceptual experiments E1: Assume that the sequence that hit Emilia has just ended and the data relating to the other major earthquakes happened in the past (L’Aquila, Pollino, and Irpinia) are available, then calculate the level of damage for each building in the Emila dataset. E2: Assume that the sequence that hit Pollino has just ended and the data relating to the other major earthquakes happened in the past (L’Aquila, Emilia) are available, then calculate the level of damage for each building in the Pollino dataset. Both training and test datasets contain only masonry buildings located within 10 km of the main shock of each sequence. The results show the RF algorithm’s ability to discriminate between buildings with light/no damage from those with medium/severe damage, with a good accuracy, especially for E1.
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