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Simonetti, Biagio
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Simonetti, Biagio
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Simonetti, B.
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9 results
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- PublicationRestrictedUsing Markov-switching models with Markov chain Monte Carlo inference methods in agricultural commodities trading(2020)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; In this work, the use of Markov-switching GARCH (MS-GARCH) models is tested in an active trading algorithm for corn and soybean future markets. By assuming that a given investor lives in a two-regime world (with low- and high-volatility time periods), a trading algorithm was simulated (from January 2000 to March 2019), which helped the investor to forecast the probability of being in the high-volatility regime at t ? 1. Once this probability was known, the investor could decide to invest either in commodities, during low-volatility periods or in the 3-month US Treasury bills, during high-volatility periods. Our results suggest that the Gaussian MS-GARCH model is the most appropriate to generate alpha or extra returns (from a passive investment strategy) in the corn market and the t-Student MS-GARCH is the best one for soybean trading.45 4 - PublicationRestrictedDoes perceived risk really matter in travel behaviour?In spite of its importance in understanding tourist behaviour, the scientific knowledge about risk perceptions about a destination has begun to expand especially after 1960s. Especially, far more research is yet needed for exploring the role of risk on potential tourists’ travel motivations, destina tion image perceptions and visit intentions. This study, therefore, attempts to clarify the moderated impact of risk perception in the relationship among travel motivations, destination image and travel intentions. With this purpose, two survey studies were conducted on German tourists visiting Turkey, whereas the participants evaluated their perceptions about Spain or Greece. The results in both cases showed a high direct influence of travel motivations on destination image perception and a significant direct impact of destination image perception on travel intention. The findings also revealed that risk perception has a negative moderated effect on travel motivations, destination image and travel inten tion relationships.
63 2 - PublicationOpen AccessA New Model to Identify the Reliability and Trust of Internet Banking Users Using Fuzzy Theory and Data-MiningAs a result of changes in approach from traditional to virtual banking system, security in data exchange has become more important; thus, it seems essentially necessary to present a pattern based on smart models in order to reduce fraud in this field. A new algorithm has been provided in this article to improve security and to specify the limits of giving special services to Internet banking users in order to pave appropriate ground for virtual banking. In addition to identifying behavioral models of customers, this algorithm compares the behaviors of any customer with this model and finally computes the rate of trust in customer’s behavior. The hybrid data-mining and knowledge based structure has been adapted in this algorithm according to fuzzy systems. In this research, qualitative data was gathered from interviews with banking experts, analyzed by Expert Choice to identify the most important variables of customer behavior analysis, and to analyze customer behavior and customer bank Internet transaction data for a period of one year by MATLAB and Clementine. The results of this survey indicate that the potential of the given structure to recognize the rate of trust in Internet bank user’s behavior might be at reasonable level for experts in this area.
29 65 - PublicationRestrictedBig data and tourism research: measuring research impactDigital transformation and technological advances are causing a radical change in com‑ munication structures and in the way information is consumed. With rapid development of computing and the Internet, data is generated, recorded, stored and accumulated on a large scale, making it necessary for economic sectors to act quickly in order to adapt their busi‑ nesses to the online environment and thus, ensure their own survival. The application of Big Data in tourism enables to transform all this data into useful information, so that com‑ panies in the sector can defne and optimize their strategies in order to increase their prof‑ its. This article performs a comparative bibliometric analysis of the presence and impact of scientifc production related to Big Data within the area of tourism research indexed in the WoS and Scopus databases. The aim is to know key aspects such as its growth, correlation, citation, coverage, overlap, dispersion or concentration that will support future research‑ ers when they start their work in this emerging feld. From the analysis of the 113 articles selected between the two bases through an advanced search for terms with a time limit set in 2019, it can be concluded that this is a new feld of knowledge, which has aroused great interest since 2017, publishing about two thirds of the articles during the period 2017– 2019. Although WoS and Scopus difer in general terms in scope and coverage policies, both systems are complementary and not exclusive. In the specifc area of Big Data and Tourism Research, Scopus is the base that provides better coverage by collecting a higher number of articles and receiving more citations.
82 2 - PublicationOpen AccessInvestigating financial statements in hospitality: a quantitative approach(2023)
; ; ; ; ; The aim of this paper is to investigate, through fnancial-statement analyzes, the economic fnancial performance of Italian hotels, after the international economic crisis, also con sidering the possible macro-regional diferences. The study focuses the fnancial state ments of 5473 hotels from 2009 to 2018. National data are also disaggregated in the three macro-areas that characterize Italy for diferent social and economic aspects. Anova test and Tukey–Kramer test are used. Results show that the crisis afected proftability. Ital ian hotels have a low capitalization, unable to cope with the large structural investments that require signifcant debts. The proftability indicators record similar trends in the three macro-areas, while the fnancial independence index and the coverage index show signif cant diferent values in the three observed areas. Therefore, in the digital era, Italian hotel industry has all the potential to restructure itself. Here fve ratios are considered to observe medium sized hotels. Future research with other variables will be useful, even on smaller hotels, and the analysis of their trends by cohorts of companies is necessary, as well as the integration of quantitative data with qualitative evidence. This paper encourages the cul ture of temporal sector comparison, re-evaluating the potential of accounting information systems, in order to promote data-based growth and development strategies. Furthermore, it contains indications for government ofcials, as well as for countries in the process of developing the hospitality sector following the example of the Italian experience.90 536 - PublicationOpen AccessAnalysis of tourism in Campania as a tool for the development of high-quality cultural services for sightseers: The “Reale Osservatorio Vesuviano” case history(2015)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; The purpose of this work is to identify the guidelines for the development and diversification of the cultural touristic offer achievable at the Reale Osservatorio Vesuviano (ROV). Founded in 1841, it is the oldest volcano observatory in the world and it has always had the vocation for scientific-naturalistic and formative tourism. The present study investigates the connections between the sociology of tourism and the ROV’s sustainability and competitiveness as a tourist destination. Here it is performed a study of the tourist flow, based on the sociology of tourism and on the correct processing of data sets, distinguishing the ''statistical information on tourism" from "tourism statistics", as such a study is the basis of a proper market strategy in different sectors. Tourism remains, in fact, an important phenomenon in world economy: despite the economic crisis of recent years, international tourist arrivals show a positive development of the trend in all the major sub-areas into which the large international areas are traditionally divided. The principles for a future marketing plan were outlined after collecting all the relevant information. The plan was designed to enhance the overall touristic offer of the ROV, never ceasing to consider the integration of natural- scientific aspects and cultural events to be offered within the observatory itself.1008 53 - PublicationOpen AccessRenewable energy, institutional stability, environment and economic growth nexus of D-8 countries(2020)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; The anthropogenic impact of conventional energy sources encourages the utilization of revenable energy, as it has become a strategic commodity for economic growth. On the other hand, institutional stability is the prerequisite...49 23 - PublicationOpen AccessImpact of Financial Deepening on Exchange Rate: Spillover Evidence from Developed and Developing EconomiesFinancial Deepening refers to improvements in both the volume of money in circulation and the resultant increase in the pool of financial services tai- lored to all levels of society. This paper provides a unique framework for exploring important factors, through which Financial Deepening leads to fi- nancial crises. The excessive Financial Deepening in the base country spills over into other economies, leading to financial instability. In this study, an- nual data from 42 countries were collected from the International Monetary Fund for the period 2000-2016. Augmented Dicky Fuller, Correlation, VIF, linear regression, and ARCH-GARCH family models were applied in order to analyse and validate the outcomes. In the end, recommendations and future research directions are presented for both developed and developing countries.
237 15 - PublicationRestrictedSPC techniques using M/M/1 queueing model: In a manufacturing process, no two products can be exact, which might be due to many factors. These variations need to be monitored and controlled through the use of statistical process control (SPC). When they are small, and their effects are barely noticeable, we say the process is ‘in control’. Otherwise, they lead the process to ‘out of control’. Items enter the system and wait in a line for measurements; by following a queue discipline. Such a queue is then characterised according to service time, number of quality inspectors and waiting space. A good process control will also protect the product in the sense that the lots produced at permissible levels of quality will have a good chance to be in control. The objective of this paper is to introduce a control chart using M/M/1 queueing discipline to study and maintain a process control in a regular interval.
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