Maccaferri, Francesco

We developed a hybrid numerical model of dike propagation in two dimensions solving both for the magma trajectory and velocity as a function of the source overpressure, the magma physical properties (density and viscosity), and the crustal density and stress field. This model is used to characterize the influence of surface load changes on magma migration toward the surface. We confirm that surface loading induced by volcanic edifice construction tends both to attract the magma and to reduce its velocity. In contrast, surface unloading, for instance, due to caldera formation, tends to divert the magma to the periphery-retarding eruption. In both cases the deflected magma may remain trapped at depth. Amplitudes of dike deflection and magma velocity variation depend on the ratio between the magma driving pressure (source overpressure as well as buoyancy) and the stress field perturbation. Our model is then applied to the July 2001 eruption of Etna, where the final dike deflection had been previously interpreted as due to the topographic load. We show that the velocity decrease observed during the last stage of the propagation can also be attributed to the local stress field. We use the dike propagation duration to estimate the magma overpressure at the dike bottom to be less than 4 MPa. This approach can be potentially used to forecast if, where, and when propagating magma might reach the surface when having knowledge on the local stress field, magma physical properties, and reservoir overpressure.

We develop a mathematical model describing dyke propagation in proximity of an elastic discontinuity of the embedding medium. The dyke is modelled as a fluid-filled crack in plane strain configuration employing the boundary element method. The pressure gradient along the crack is assumed proportional to the difference between the densities of the host rock and the fluid. Mass conservation is imposed during propagation and fluid compressibility is taken into account. The path followed by the crack is found by maximizing the total energy release, given by the sum of the elastic and gravitational contributions. The mathematical simulations provide a sort of ‘refraction phenomenon’, that is a sudden change in the direction of propagation when the crack crosses the boundary separating different rigidities: if the dyke enters a softer medium, its path deviates towards the vertical, if the dyke enters a harder medium its path deviates away from the vertical and may even become arrested as a horizontal sill along the interface, if the rigidity contrast is large. Gravitational energy plays a major role during propagation; in particular, in proximity of layer boundaries, this role is enhanced by the shift of the centre of mass due to changes of dyke shape. Mathematical results were validated by laboratory experiments performed injecting tilted air-filled cracks through gelatin layers with different rigidities.

Understanding shallow magma transfer and the related vent distribution is crucial for volcanic hazard. Here we investigate how the stress induced by topographic scarps linked to normal faults affects the distribution of monogenic volcanoes at divergent plate boundaries. Our numerical models of dyke propagation below a fault scarp show that the dykes tend to propagate toward and erupt on the footwall side. This effect, increasing with the scarp height, is stronger for dykes propagating underneath the hanging wall side and decreases with the distance from the scarp. A comparison to the East African Rift System, Afar and Iceland shows that (1) the inner rift structure, which shapes the topography, controls shallow dyke propagation; (2) differential loading due to mass redistribution affects magma propagation over a broad scale range (10 0 –10 5 m). Our results find application to any volcanic field with tectonics- or erosion-induced topographic variations and should be considered in any volcanic hazard assessment.

Continued post-collapse volcanic activity can cause the rise of a new edifice. However, details of such edifice rebirth have not been documented yet. Here, we present 7-decade-long photogrammetric data for Bezymianny volcano, Kamchatka, showing its evolution after the 1956 sector collapse. Edifice rebirth started with two lava domes originating at distinct vents ~400 m apart. After 2 decades, activity became more effusive with vents migrating within ~200 m distance. After 5 decades, the activity focused on a single vent to develop a stra- tocone with a summit crater. We determine a long-term average growth rate of 26,400 m 3 / day, allowing us to estimate the regain of the pre-collapse size within the next 15 years. Numerical modeling explains the gradual vents focusing to be associated with loading changes, affecting magma pathways at depth. This work thus sheds light on the complex regrowth process following a sector collapse, with implications for regrowing volcanoes elsewhere.

ectonic earthquake swarms challenge our understanding of earthquake processes since it is difficult to link observations to the underlying physical mechanisms and to assess the hazard they pose. Transient forcing is thought to initiate and drive the spatio-temporal release of energy during swarms. The nature of the transient forcing may vary across sequences and range from aseismic creeping or transient slip to diffusion of pore pressure pulses to fluid redistribution and migration within the seismogenic crust. Distinguishing between such forcing mechanisms may be critical to reduce epistemic uncertainties in the assessment of hazard due to seismic swarms, because it can provide information on the frequency–magnitude distribution of the earthquakes (often deviating from the assumed Gutenberg–Richter relation) and on the expected source parameters influencing the ground motion (for example the stress drop). Here we study the ongoing Pollino range (Southern Italy) seismic swarm, a long-lasting seismic sequence with more than five thousand events recorded and located since October 2010. The two largest shocks (magnitude M w = 4.2 and M w = 5.1) are among the largest earthquakes ever recorded in an area which represents a seismic gap in the Italian historical earthquake catalogue. We investigate the geometrical, mechanical and statistical characteristics of the largest earthquakes and of the entire swarm. We calculate the focal mechanisms of the M l > 3 events in the sequence and the transfer of Coulomb stress on nearby known faults and analyse the statistics of the earthquake catalogue. We find that only 25 per cent of the earthquakes in the sequence can be explained as aftershocks, and the remaining 75 per cent may be attributed to a transient forcing. The b-values change in time throughout the sequence, with low b-values correlated with the period of highest rate of activity and with the occurrence of the largest shock. In the light of recent studies on the palaeoseismic and historical activity in the Pollino area, we identify two scenarios consistent with the observations and our analysis: This and past seismic swarms may have been ‘passive’ features, with small fault patches failing on largely locked faults, or may have been accompanied by an ‘active’, largely aseismic, release of a large portion of the accumulated tectonic strain. Those scenarios have very different implications for the seismic hazard of the area.

This study investigates the dynamics of magmatic intrusions based on the joint analysis of analog and numerical models.By injecting different fluids from the bottom of a solidified gelatin block, we simulate the propagation of magmatic intrusions through the crust and record their shapes, trajectories, and velocity as they rise towards the surface. Additionally, we make use of a 2D fluid-filled crack propagation model constrained by our experimental observations. The numerical simulations demonstrate that our viscous fluid-filled crack experiments, conducted with silicon-oil injections, propagate in the same regime as typical basaltic intrusions. The comparison between analog and numerical results allow us to define the domain of validity of the numerical model and its limit of applicability. This study provides new insights into the processes that control the propagation of magmatic intrusions and our ability to reproduce them using analog and numerical models.

A model is proposed to explain the spatial distribution of foreshocks of the June 17th 2000, M s 6.6 earthquake in the South Iceland Seismic Zone (SISZ) and the high stress drop of the mainshock. Fluids of magmatic origin, ascending at near-lithostatic pressure through a low permeability layer perturb the regional stress field, inhibiting fluid flow laterally, where a high strength asperity is left. The asperity is modeled as elastic, embedded within a medium with low effective rigidity. Regional stresses due to tectonic motions are perturbed by the presence of the asperity, enhancing the production of hydrofractures and foreshocks in the NW and SE quadrants and increasing considerably the shear stress within the asperity, leading to the NS striking mainshock.

On the Moon, floor-fractured craters (FFCs) present evidence of horizontal crater-centred magmatic intrusions. Crater floor uplift and moat formation indicate that these sill intrusions occur at shallow depths ( < 10 km). While a recent study has demonstrated that magma ascent below FFCs and mare-filled craters was triggered by crater unloading, the mechanism leading to the emplacement of shallow sills is still poorly understood. Here we show that the local stress field due to crater unloading is also responsible for the horizontalisation of the magma flow leading to sill-like intrusions. On Earth, caldera formation has been shown to similarly affect magma trajectories, inducing the formation of a sill-shaped storage zone. Magma ascent to shallow depths below FFCs was however made possible because of a regional tensional stress caused by mare loading on the lunar lithosphere. We show that the tensional stress generated by elastic lithosphere deformation caused by mare loading combined to the local crater stress field can explain the distribution of FFCs on the Moon, with the smallest FFCs being located over a larger distance range from the mare. In particular, FFCs distribution around Oceanus Procellarum is consistent with an average load thickness of ∼ 1 km. This study suggests that magma trajectory in the crust of terrestrial planets can provide a diagnostic of the lithospheric structure and state of stress.

On Venus, radar observations of the surface have highlighted two categories of craters: bright-floored, interpreted as pristine, and dark-floored, interpreted as being partially filled by lava. While volcanic resurfacing occurs within and outside craters in the plains, it seems mainly concentrated within the interior of dark-floored craters in the crustal plateaus, suggesting that the magma is negatively buoyant there. Indeed, crater unloading may facilitate vertical ascent of a negatively buoyant magma by decompressing the underlying crust. However, the crater topography also generates a shear stress which would tend to horizontalize the vertical propagation of a dyke. We use numerical simulations of magma ascent in an axisymmetric crater stress field to demonstrate that, depending on the crust thickness and the magma-crust density contrast, a negatively buoyant magma can indeed erupt only in the crater interior while remaining stored in the crust elsewhere. In particular, we identify four different behaviors depending on if and where a magma-filled crack ascending below a crater reaches the surface. We draw a regime diagram as a function of two characteristic dimensionless numbers. For eruption to occur only in the crater interior requires a crust thinner than 45 km and a limited range of magma-crust density contrasts, between 40 and 280 kg m−3 for crust thicknesses between 20 and 45 km, the permissible range decreasing for increasing crustal thicknesses. These results suggest that the crustal plateaus may not be particularly thick and could be slightly differentiated, but probably not very felsic.

Mixed‐mode fluid‐filled cracks represent a common means of fluid transport within the Earth's crust. They often show complex propagation paths which may be due to interaction with crustal heterogeneities or heterogeneous crustal stress. Previous experimental and numerical studies focus on the interplay between fluid over-pressure and external stress but neglect the effect of other crack parameters. In this study, we address the role of crack length on the propagation paths in the presence of an external heterogeneous stress field. We make use of numerical simulations of magmatic dike and hydrofracture propagation, carried out using a two‐dimensional boundary element model, and analogue experiments of air‐filled crack propagation into a transparent gelatin block. We use a 3‐D finite element model to compute the stress field acting within the gelatin block and perform a quantitative comparison between 2‐D numerical simulations and experiments. We show that, given the same ratio between external stress and fluid pressure, longer fluid‐filled cracks are less sensitive to the background stress, and we quantify this effect on fluid‐filled crack paths. Combining the magnitude of the external stress, the fluid pressure, and the crack length, we define a new parameter, which characterizes two end member scenarios for the propagation path of a fluid‐filled fracture. Our results have important implications for volcanological studies which aim to address the problem of complex trajectories of magmatic dikes (i.e., to forecast scenarios of new vents opening at volcanoes) but also have implications for studies that address the growth and propagation of natural and induced hydrofractures.