Options
Ruti, P.
Loading...
2 results
Now showing 1 - 2 of 2
- PublicationOpen AccessThe CIRCE simulations: Regional Climate Change Projections with Realistic Representation of the Mediterranean Sea(2013)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Gualdi, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Somot, L.; CNRM-GAME ;Li, L.; CNRS-LMD ;Artale, V.; ENEA ;Adani, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Bellucci, A.; CMCC ;Braun, A.; CNRM-GAME ;Calmanti, S.; ENEA ;Carillo, A.; ENEA ;Dell'Aquila, A.; ENEA ;Deque, M.; CNRM-GAME ;Dubois, C.; CNRM-GAME ;Elizade, A.; MPI ;Harzallah, A.; INSTM ;Jacob, D.; MPI ;L'Hévéder, D.; CNRS-LMD ;May, W.; DMI ;Oddo, P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Ruti, P.; ENEA ;Sanna, A.; CMCC ;Sannino, G.; ENEA ;Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Savault, F.; CNRM-GAME ;Navarra, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; In this article we describe an innovative multi-model system developed within the CIRCE EU-FP6 Project and used to produce simulations of the Mediterranean Sea regional climate. The models include high-resolution Mediterranean Sea components, which allow to assess the role of the basin, and in particular of the air-sea feedbacks in the climate of the region. The models have been integrated from 1951 to 2050, using observed radiative forcings during the first half of the simulation period and the IPCC SRES A1B scenario during the second half. The projections show a substantial warming (about 1.5°-2°C) and a significant decrease of precipitation (about 5%) in the region for the scenario period. However, locally the changes might be even larger. In the same period, the projected surface net heat loss decreases, leading to a weaker cooling of the Mediterranean Sea by the atmosphere, whereas the water budget appears to increase, leading the basin to loose more water through its surface than in the past. These results are overall consistent with the findings of previous scenario simulations, such as PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES and CMIP3. The agreement suggests that these findings are robust to substantial changes in the configuration of the models used to make the simulations. Finally, the models produce a 2021-2050 mean steric sea-level rise that ranges between +7 cm and +12 cm, with respect to the period of reference.264 565 - PublicationRestrictedRobust assessment of the expansion and retreat of Mediterranean climate in the 21st century(2014-12-02)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Alessandri, A.; ENEA, Rome, Italy ;De Felice, M.; ENEA, Rome, Italy ;Zeng, N.; University of Maryland, College Park, MD, US ;Mariotti, A.; NOAA, Silver Spring, MD, US ;Yutong, P.; University of Maryland, College Park, MD, US ;Cherchi, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Lee, J.-Y.; Pusan National University, Busan, South Korea ;Wang, B.; 2International Pacific Research Center, Honolulu, HI, USA ;Ha, K.-J.; Pusan National University, Busa ;Ruti, P.; ENEA, Rome, Italy ;Artale, V.; ENEA, Rome, Italy; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; The warm-temperate regions of the globe characterized by dry summers and wet winters (Mediterranean climate; MED) are especially vulnerable to climate change. The potential impact on water resources,ecosystems and human livelihood requires a detailed picture of the future changes in this unique climate zone. Here we apply a probabilistic approach to quantitatively address how and why the geographic distribution of MED will change based on the latest-available climate projections for the 21st century. Our analysis provides, for the first time, a robust assessment of significant northward and eastward future expansions of MED over both the Euro-Mediterranean and western North America. Concurrently, we show a significant 21st century replacement of the equatorward MED margins by the arid climate type.Moreover, future winters will become wetter and summers drier in both the old and newly established MED zones. Should these projections be realized, living conditions in some of the most densely populated regions in the world will be seriously jeopardized.132 20