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Deque, M.
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- PublicationOpen AccessThe CIRCE simulations: Regional Climate Change Projections with Realistic Representation of the Mediterranean Sea(2013)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Gualdi, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Somot, L.; CNRM-GAME ;Li, L.; CNRS-LMD ;Artale, V.; ENEA ;Adani, M.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Bellucci, A.; CMCC ;Braun, A.; CNRM-GAME ;Calmanti, S.; ENEA ;Carillo, A.; ENEA ;Dell'Aquila, A.; ENEA ;Deque, M.; CNRM-GAME ;Dubois, C.; CNRM-GAME ;Elizade, A.; MPI ;Harzallah, A.; INSTM ;Jacob, D.; MPI ;L'Hévéder, D.; CNRS-LMD ;May, W.; DMI ;Oddo, P.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Ruti, P.; ENEA ;Sanna, A.; CMCC ;Sannino, G.; ENEA ;Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Savault, F.; CNRM-GAME ;Navarra, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; In this article we describe an innovative multi-model system developed within the CIRCE EU-FP6 Project and used to produce simulations of the Mediterranean Sea regional climate. The models include high-resolution Mediterranean Sea components, which allow to assess the role of the basin, and in particular of the air-sea feedbacks in the climate of the region. The models have been integrated from 1951 to 2050, using observed radiative forcings during the first half of the simulation period and the IPCC SRES A1B scenario during the second half. The projections show a substantial warming (about 1.5°-2°C) and a significant decrease of precipitation (about 5%) in the region for the scenario period. However, locally the changes might be even larger. In the same period, the projected surface net heat loss decreases, leading to a weaker cooling of the Mediterranean Sea by the atmosphere, whereas the water budget appears to increase, leading the basin to loose more water through its surface than in the past. These results are overall consistent with the findings of previous scenario simulations, such as PRUDENCE, ENSEMBLES and CMIP3. The agreement suggests that these findings are robust to substantial changes in the configuration of the models used to make the simulations. Finally, the models produce a 2021-2050 mean steric sea-level rise that ranges between +7 cm and +12 cm, with respect to the period of reference.264 565 - PublicationRestrictedFuture projections of the surface heat and water budgets of the Mediterranean Sea in an ensemble of coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models(2012)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Dubois, C.; CNRM-GAME ;Somot, S.; CNRM-GAME ;Calmanti, S.; ENEA ;Carrillo, A.; ENEA ;Deque, M.; CNRM-GAME ;Dell'aquila, A.; ENEA ;Elizade, A.; MPI ;Gualdi, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Jacob, D.; MPI ;L’He ́ve ́der, B.; Laboratoire de Me ́te ́orologie Dynamique, Paris, France ;Li, L.; Laboratoire de Me ́te ́orologie Dynamique, Paris, France ;Sannino, G.; ENEA ;Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Sevault, F.; CNR-GAME; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Within the CIRCE project ‘‘Climate change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment’’, an ensemble of high resolution coupled atmosphere–ocean regional climate models (AORCMs) are used to simulate the Mediterranean climate for the period 1950–2050. For the first time, realistic net surface air-sea fluxes are obtained. The sea surface temperature (SST) variability is consistent with the atmospheric forcing above it and oce- anic constraints. The surface fluxes respond to external forcing under a warming climate and show an equivalent trend in all models. This study focuses on the present day and on the evolution of the heat and water budget over the Mediterranean Sea under the SRES-A1B scenario. On the contrary to previous studies, the net total heat budget is negative over the present period in all AORCMs and sat- isfies the heat closure budget controlled by a net positive heat gain at the strait of Gibraltar in the present climate. Under climate change scenario, some models predict a warming of the Mediterranean Sea from the ocean surface (positive net heat flux) in addition to the positive flux at the strait of Gibraltar for the 2021–2050 period. The shortwave and latent flux are increasing and the longwave and sen- sible fluxes are decreasing compared to the 1961–1990 period due to a reduction of the cloud cover and an increase in greenhouse gases (GHGs) and SSTs over the 2021–2050 period. The AORCMs provide a good estimates of the water budget with a drying of the region during the twenty- first century. For the ensemble mean, he decrease in pre- cipitation and runoff is about 10 and 15% respectively and the increase in evaporation is much weaker, about 2% compared to the 1961–1990 period which confirm results obtained in recent studies. Despite a clear consistency in the trends and results between the models, this study also underlines important differences in the model set-ups, methodology and choices of some physical parameters inducing some difference in the various air-sea fluxes. An evaluation of the uncertainty sources and possible improvement for future generation of AORCMs highlights the importance of the parameterisation of the ocean albedo, rivers and cloud cover.199 28