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Scarpelli, M.
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Scarpelli, M.
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- PublicationOpen AccessThe Catania 1669 lava eruptive crisis: simulation of a new possible eruption(2001-09)
; ; ; ; ; ; ;Crisci, G. M.; Department of Earth Sciences,University of Calabria, Arcavacata ;Di Gregorio, S.; Department of Mathematics,University of Calabria, Arcavacata ;Rongo, R.; Department of Earth Sciences,University of Calabria, Arcavacata, University of Calabria, Arcavacata ;Scarpelli, M.; Department of Earth Sciences,University of Calabria, Arcavacata, University of Calabria, Arcavacata ;Spataro, W.; Department of Mathematics,University of Calabria, Arcavacata, ;Calvari, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia; ; ; ; ; SCIARA (Smart Cellular Interactive Automata for modeling the Rheology of Aetnean lava flows, to be read as “shea’rah”), our first two-dimensional Cellular Automata model for the simulation of lava flows, was tested and validated with success on several lava events like the 1986/87 Etnean eruption and the last phase of the 1991/93 Etnean one. Real and simulated events are satisfying within limits to forecast the surface covered by the lava flow. Moreover, improved versions have been adopted in testing other real lava flows of Mount Etna and of Reunion Island (Indian Ocean). The model has been applied with success in the determination of risk zones in the inhabited areas of Nicolosi, Pedara, S. Alfio and Zafferana (Sicily). The main goal of the present work has been the verification of the effects, in volcanic risk terms, in the Etnean area from Nicolosi to Catania, of a eruptive crisis similar to the event that occurred in 1669, as if the episode would happen nowadays. Catania has been severely interested in some major Etnean events in history, the most famous one being, namely, the 1669 eruption, involving 1 km3 of lava during 130 days. The simulation of lava tubes and the usage of different histories within the experiments have been crucial in the determination of a new risk area for Catania. In fact, simulations carried out without the introduction of lava tubes, never involved the city, proving the fact that lava tubes, played a fundamental role in the 1669 Catania lava crisis.238 168 - PublicationRestrictedRevisiting the 1669 Etnean eruptive crisis using a cellular automata model and implications for volcanic hazard in the Catania area(2003)
; ; ; ; ; ; ;Crisci, G. M.; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Calabria, Arcavacata ;Di Gregorio, S.; Department of Mathematics, University of Calabria, Arcavacata ;Rongo, R.; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Calabria, Arcavacata ;Scarpelli, M.; Department of Earth Sciences, University of Calabria, Arcavacata ;Spataro, W.; Department of Mathematics, University of Calabria, Arcavacata ;Calvari, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Catania, Catania, Italia; ; ; ; ; Cellular Automata provide an alternative approach to standard numerical methods for modelling some complex natural systems, the behaviour of which can be described in terms of local interactions of their constituent parts. SCIARA is a 2-D Cellular Automata model which simulates lava flows. It was tested on, validated by, and improved on several Etnean lava events such as the 1986^1987 eruption and the first and last phase of the 1991^1993 event. With respect to forecasting the surface covered by the lava flows, the best results were acceptable. The model has been used to determine hazard zones in the inhabited areas of Nicolosi, Pedara, S. Alfio and Zafferana (Sicily, Italy). The main goal of the current work in the Etnean area from Nicolosi to Catania has been the verification of the volcanic hazard effects of an eruptive crisis similar to the event that occurred in 1669. The simulation uses the volcanic data of the 1669 eruption with present-day morphology. Catania has been affected by some historical Etnean events, the most famous one being the 1669 eruption, involving 1 km3 of lava erupted over the course of 120 days. The simulation of ephemeral vents and the use of different histories within the experiments have been crucial in the determination of a new hazard area for Catania. In fact, during the simulation the city was never affected without the introduction of ephemeral vents, proving the fact that lava tubes played a fundamental role in the 1669 Catania lava crisis.148 24