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Mantovani, R.
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Mantovani, R.
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- PublicationOpen AccessOrographic cyclogenesis in a saturated atmosphere and intense precipitation: baroclinic modal solutions under the joint action of localized mountains and humidity(1997-12)
; ; ; ; ;Benzi, R.; Dipartimento di Fisica, II Università di Roma, Italy ;Fantini, M.; CNR-FISBAT, Bologna, Italy ;Mantovani, R.; Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche, III Università di Roma, Italy ;Speranza, A.; Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Camerino, Italy; ; ; In this paper we analyse the nature of orographic cyclogenesis in a saturated atmosphere by means of a simplified model based on the analysis of linear modal solutions.The space structure of fastest growing modal solutions suggests that three different scales of axtratropical atmospheric motion may simultaneously be activated in a single, growing, unstable mode: the orographic modulation of growing baroclinic modes extending, as we know from the classical modal theory of orographic cyclogenesis, from the scale typical of the primary, extra-tropical cyclone to the scale of the secondary, orographic cyclone, is also characterized by the (smaller) scale associated with strong ascending motion in a saturated atmosphere. Since ascending motion can be associated with intense precipitation, this result is important in view of its potential consequences both on the ability to achieve a good forecast of intense precipitation events in the Mediterranean and on the refinement of the theory of orographic cyclogenesis.129 205 - PublicationOpen AccessFlood forecasting in the Tiber catchment area: a methodological analysis(2000-10)
; ; ; ; ; ;Calenda, G.; Università di <<Roma Tre>>, Dipartimento di Scienze dell'Ingegneria Civile, Roma, Italy ;Casaioli, M.; CNR, Istituto di Fisica dell'Atmosfera, Roma, Italy ;Cosentino, C.; Università di <<Roma Tre>>, Dipartimento di Scienze dell'Ingegneria Civile, Roma, Italy ;Mantovani, R.; Università di Bologna, Dipartimento di Fisica, Bologna, Italy ;Speranza, A.; Università di Camerino, Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Camerino, Italy; ; ; ; The most difficult step in hydrological forecasting is precipitation forecast, since rain is the most irregular and least predictable meteorological field. Numerical meteorological models are the main tool to forecast the precipitation field over river basins where floods may be expected. Object of this paper is a preliminary analysis of the appropriate methodological approach to flood forecasting in the Tiber River basin. An assessment of the flood forecasting skill of a meteorological limited area model, coupled with a lumped rainfall-runoff model, is performed. The main indications which seem to arise are that integral precipitation over the catchment area is adequately forecast in its time-evolution, but the total rainfall shows a systematic deficit with respect to observations.170 507