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Speranza, A.
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Speranza, A.
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- PublicationOpen AccessThe analysis of the Standardized Precipitation Index in the Mediterranean area: large-scale patterns(2001-10)
; ; ; ; ; ;Bordi, I.; Dipartimento di Fisica, Università La Sapienza, Roma, Italy ;Frigio, S.; Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Università di Camerino (MC), Italy ;Parenti, P.; Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Università di Camerino (MC), Italy ;Speranza, A.; Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Università di Camerino (MC), Italy ;Sutera, A.; Dipartimento di Fisica, Università La Sapienza, Roma, Italy; ; ; ; Problems related to the identification and monitoring of drought are investigated. In particular, drought conditions in Italy are examined using the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) on different time scales for August 2000. Historical reconstruction of drought events is also shown for particular locations of Italy for the last fifty years. These preliminary applications show interesting results and demonstrate that the index considered is a tool that should be used operationally as part of a national drought watch system in Italy to monitor drought conditions objectively. An example of a monthly bulletin of drought for Italy is also shown.261 832 - PublicationOpen AccessFlood forecasting in the Tiber catchment area: a methodological analysis(2000-10)
; ; ; ; ; ;Calenda, G.; Università di <<Roma Tre>>, Dipartimento di Scienze dell'Ingegneria Civile, Roma, Italy ;Casaioli, M.; CNR, Istituto di Fisica dell'Atmosfera, Roma, Italy ;Cosentino, C.; Università di <<Roma Tre>>, Dipartimento di Scienze dell'Ingegneria Civile, Roma, Italy ;Mantovani, R.; Università di Bologna, Dipartimento di Fisica, Bologna, Italy ;Speranza, A.; Università di Camerino, Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Camerino, Italy; ; ; ; The most difficult step in hydrological forecasting is precipitation forecast, since rain is the most irregular and least predictable meteorological field. Numerical meteorological models are the main tool to forecast the precipitation field over river basins where floods may be expected. Object of this paper is a preliminary analysis of the appropriate methodological approach to flood forecasting in the Tiber River basin. An assessment of the flood forecasting skill of a meteorological limited area model, coupled with a lumped rainfall-runoff model, is performed. The main indications which seem to arise are that integral precipitation over the catchment area is adequately forecast in its time-evolution, but the total rainfall shows a systematic deficit with respect to observations.170 507 - PublicationOpen AccessOrographic cyclogenesis in a saturated atmosphere and intense precipitation: baroclinic modal solutions under the joint action of localized mountains and humidity(1997-12)
; ; ; ; ;Benzi, R.; Dipartimento di Fisica, II Università di Roma, Italy ;Fantini, M.; CNR-FISBAT, Bologna, Italy ;Mantovani, R.; Dipartimento di Scienze Geologiche, III Università di Roma, Italy ;Speranza, A.; Dipartimento di Fisica, Università di Camerino, Italy; ; ; In this paper we analyse the nature of orographic cyclogenesis in a saturated atmosphere by means of a simplified model based on the analysis of linear modal solutions.The space structure of fastest growing modal solutions suggests that three different scales of axtratropical atmospheric motion may simultaneously be activated in a single, growing, unstable mode: the orographic modulation of growing baroclinic modes extending, as we know from the classical modal theory of orographic cyclogenesis, from the scale typical of the primary, extra-tropical cyclone to the scale of the secondary, orographic cyclone, is also characterized by the (smaller) scale associated with strong ascending motion in a saturated atmosphere. Since ascending motion can be associated with intense precipitation, this result is important in view of its potential consequences both on the ability to achieve a good forecast of intense precipitation events in the Mediterranean and on the refinement of the theory of orographic cyclogenesis.129 205 - PublicationOpen AccessThe analysis of the Standardized Precipitation Index in the Mediterranean area: regional patterns(2001-10)
; ; ; ; ; ;Bordi, I.; Dipartimento di Fisica, Università La Sapienza, Roma, Italy ;Frigio, S.; Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Università di Camerino (MC), Italy ;Parenti, P.; Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Università di Camerino (MC), Italy ;Speranza, A.; Dipartimento di Matematica e Fisica, Università di Camerino (MC), Italy ;Sutera, A.; Dipartimento di Fisica, Università La Sapienza, Roma, Italy; ; ; ; n the present paper we propose a method to assess regional drought by using rain-gauge observations. In particular, we analyse the rainfall on the Marche region. We diagnose drought by means of the Standardized Precipitation Index, specifically analysing the period from January 1948 to December 1981. We present a preliminary comparison of these results with those obtained using large-scale precipitation data. We obtain a good agreement between the large-scale analysis and the local (regional scale) observations.126 1909