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Keilis-Borok, V. I.
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Keilis-Borok, V. I.
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- PublicationRestrictedGEMS: the opportunity for stress-forecasting all damaging earthquakes worldwide(2006-09-28T11:48:26Z)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Crampin, S.; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland UK; also at Edinburgh Anisotropy Project, British Geological Survey, Edinburgh, Scotland UK ;Zatsepin, S. V.; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland UK ;Browitt, C. W. A.; School of GeoSciences, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, Scotland UK ;Keilis-Borok, V. I.; International Institute of Earthquake Prediction and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; also at Institute of Geophysics and Planetary Physics, University of California, Los Angeles, California USA ;Suyehiro, K.; JAMSTEC, Yokosuka, Japan ;Gao, Y.; Institute of Earthquake Science, China Earthquake Administration, Beijing, China ;Walter, L.; Geospace Engineering Research International, Texas, USA; ; ; ; ; ; A new understanding of rock deformation allows the accumulation of stress before earthquakes to be monitored by using shear-wave splitting to assess stress-induced changes to microcrack geometry. Using swarms of small earthquakes as the source of shear-waves, such stress accumulations have been recognised with hindsight before some fifteen earthquakes worldwide. On one occasion the time, magnitude, and fault-break of an M 5 earthquake was successfully stress-forecast in a comparatively narrow magnitude/time window. However, suitable swarms of small earthquakes are very uncommon, and routine forecasting requires measurements of controlled-source observations at bore-hole Stress-Monitoring Sites (SMSs). A prototype SMS confirmed that both science and technology are effective for monitoring stress changes before earthquakes, and the sensitivity is such that a network of SMSs, on a 400 km-grid, say, could stress-forecast all M ≥ 5 earthquakes, that is all damaging earthquakes, within the grid. This paper suggests that a Global Earthquake Monitoring System (GEMS) could forecast all damaging earthquakes in both developing and developed countries worldwide.173 11 - PublicationOpen AccessOn dynamics of seismicity simulated by the models of blocks-and-faults systems(1997-10)
; ; ; ; ; ;Gorshkov, A. I.; International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia ;Keilis-Borok, V. I.; International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia ;Rotwain, I. M.; International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia ;Soloviev, A. A.; International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia ;Vorobieva, I. A.; International Institute of Earthquake Prediction Theory and Mathematical Geophysics, Russian Academy of Sciences, Moscow, Russia; ; ; ; The major results obtained by numerical simulation of block structure dynamics are juxtaposed and analysed: the possibilities to reconstruct tectonic driving forces from territorial distribution of seismicity, clustering of earthquakes in the model, and dependence of the occurrence of strong earthquakes on fragmentation of the media, and on rotation of blocks. These results show that modelling of block structure dynamics is a useful tool to study relations between the geometry of faults and block movements and earthquake flow, including premonitory seismicity patterns, to test the existing earthquake prediction algorithms, and to develop new ones.104 242