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Grewe, V.
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Grewe, V.
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- PublicationRestrictedAssessment of temperature, trace species, and ozone in chemistry-climate model simulations of the recent past(2006)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Eyring, V.; Institut fu¨ r Physik der Atmospha¨re, Deutsches Zentrum fu¨ r Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Wessling, Germany ;Butchart, N.; Climate Research Division, Met Office, Exeter, UK. ;Waugh, D. W.; Department of Earth and Planetary Sciences, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, Maryland, USA. ;Akiyoshi, H.; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, Japan. ;Austin, J.; Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, NOAA, Princeton, New Jersey, USA. ;Bekki, S.; Service d’Ae´ronomie du Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris, France. ;Bodeker, G. E.; National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research, Lauder, New Zealand. ;Boville, B.; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA. ;Brühl, C.; Max Planck Institut fu¨ r Chemie, Mainz, Germany. ;Chipperfield, M.; Institute for Atmospheric Science, University of Leeds, Leeds, UK. ;Cordero, E.; Department of Meteorology, San Jose State University, San Jose, California, USA. ;Dameris, M.; Institut fu¨ r Physik der Atmospha¨re, Deutsches Zentrum fu¨ r Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Wessling, Germany ;Frith, S. M.; Science Systems and Applications, Inc., Lanham, Maryland, USA. ;Garcia, A.; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA. ;Gettelman, A.; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA. ;Giorgetta, M.; Max Planck Institut fu¨ r Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany. ;Grewe, V.; Institut fu¨ r Physik der Atmospha¨re, Deutsches Zentrum fu¨ r Luft- und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Wessling, Germany ;Jourdain, L.; Service d’Ae´ronomie du Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Paris, France. ;Kinnison, D. E.; National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, Colorado, USA. ;Manzini, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Simulations of the stratosphere from thirteen coupled chemistry-climate models (CCMs) are evaluated to provide guidance for the interpretation of ozone predictions made by the same CCMs. The focus of the evaluation is on how well the fields and processes that are important for determining the ozone distribution are represented in the simulations of the recent past. The core period of the evaluation is from 1980 to 1999 but long-term trends are compared for an extended period (1960–2004). Comparisons of polar high-latitude temperatures show that most CCMs have only small biases in the Northern Hemisphere in winter and spring, but still have cold biases in the Southern Hemisphere spring below 10 hPa. Most CCMs display the correct stratospheric response of polar temperatures to wave forcing in the Northern, but not in the Southern Hemisphere. Global long-term stratospheric temperature trends are in reasonable agreement with satellite and radiosonde observations. Comparisons of simulations of methane, mean age of air, and propagation of the annual cycle in water vapor show a wide spread in the results, indicating differences in transport. However, for around half the models there is reasonable agreement with observations. In these models the mean age of air and the water vapor tape recorder signal are generally better than reported in previous model intercomparisons. Comparisons of the water vapor and inorganic chlorine (Cly) fields also show a large intermodel spread. Differences in tropical water vapor mixing ratios in the lower stratosphere are primarily related to biases in the simulated tropical tropopause temperatures and not transport. The spread in Cly, which is largest in the polar lower stratosphere, appears to be primarily related to transport differences. In general the amplitude and phase of the annual cycle in total ozone is well simulated apart from the southern high latitudes. Most CCMs show reasonable agreement with observed total158 21 - PublicationOpen AccessInterannual variation patterns of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature in observations and model simulations(2006)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Steinbrecht, W.; Meteorologisches Observatorium Hohenpeißenberg, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hohenpeißenberg, Germany ;Haßler, B.; Meteorologisches Observatorium Hohenpeißenberg, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hohenpeißenberg, Germany ;Bruhl, C.; Chemie der Atmosph¨are, Max Planck Institut f¨ur Chemie, Mainz, Germany ;Dameris, C.; Institut f¨ur Physik der Atmosph¨are, Deutsches Zentrum f¨ur Luft und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany ;Giorgetta, M.; Atmosph¨are im Erdsystem, Max Planck Institut f¨ur Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany ;Grewe, V.; Institut f¨ur Physik der Atmosph¨are, Deutsches Zentrum f¨ur Luft und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany ;Manzini, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Matthes, S.; Atmosph¨are im Erdsystem, Max Planck Institut f¨ur Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany ;Schnadt, C.; Institut f¨ur Physik der Atmosph¨are, Deutsches Zentrum f¨ur Luft und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany ;Steil, B.; Chemie der Atmosph¨are, Max Planck Institut f¨ur Chemie, Mainz, Germany ;Winkler, P.; Meteorologisches Observatorium Hohenpeißenberg, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hohenpeißenberg, Germany; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; We report results from a multiple linear regression analysis of long-term total ozone observations (1979 to 2000, by TOMS/SBUV), of temperature reanalyses (1958 to 2000, NCEP), and of two chemistry-climate model simulations (1960 to 1999, by ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (=E39/C), and MAECHAM4-CHEM). The model runs are transient experiments, where observed sea surface temperatures, increasing source gas concentrations (CO2, CFCs, CH4, N2O, NOx), 11-year solar cycle, volcanic aerosols and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are all accounted for. MAECHAM4-CHEM covers the atmosphere from the surface up to 0.01 hPa ( 80 km). For a proper representation of middle atmosphere (MA) dynamics, it includes a parametrization for momentum deposition by dissipating gravity wave spectra. E39/C, on the other hand, has its top layer centered at 10 hPa ( 30 km). It is targeted on processes near the tropopause, and has more levels in this region. Despite some problems, both models generally reproduce the observed amplitudes and much of the observed lowlatitude patterns of the various modes of interannual variability in total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature. In most aspects MAECHAM4-CHEM performs slightly better than E39/C. MAECHAM4-CHEM overestimates the longterm decline of total ozone, whereas E39/C underestimates the decline over Antarctica and at northern mid-latitudes. The true long-term decline in winter and spring above the Correspondence to: W. Steinbrecht (wolfgang.steinbrecht@dwd.de) Arctic may be underestimated by a lack of TOMS/SBUV observations in winter, particularly in the cold 1990s. Main contributions to the observed interannual variations of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature at 50 hPa come from a linear trend (up to −10 DU/decade at high northern latitudes, up to −40 DU/decade at high southern latitudes, and around −0.7 K/decade over much of the globe), from the intensity of the polar vortices (more than 40 DU, or 8 K peak to peak), the QBO (up to 20 DU, or 2 K peak to peak), and from tropospheric weather (up to 20 DU, or 2 K peak to peak). Smaller variations are related to the 11-year solar cycle (generally less than 15 DU, or 1 K), or to ENSO (up to 10 DU, or 1 K). These observed variations are replicated well in the simulations. Volcanic eruptions have resulted in sporadic changes (up to −30 DU, or +3 K). At low latitudes, patterns are zonally symmetric. At higher latitudes, however, strong, zonally non-symmetric signals are found close to the Aleutian Islands or south of Australia. Such asymmetric features appear in the model runs as well, but often at different longitudes than in the observations. The results point to a key role of the zonally asymmetric Aleutian (or Australian) stratospheric anti-cyclones for interannual variations at high-latitudes, and for coupling between polar vortex strength, QBO, 11-year solar cycle and ENSO.161 123