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Steil, B.
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Steil, B.
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- PublicationOpen AccessLong-term evolution of upper stratospheric ozone at selected stations of the Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC)(2006)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Steinbrecht, W.; German Weather Service, Hohenpeissenberg, Germany. ;Claude, H.; German Weather Service, Hohenpeissenberg, Germany. ;Schönenborn, F.; German Weather Service, Hohenpeissenberg, Germany. ;McDermid, I.; Table Mountain Facility, NASA-JPL, Wrightwood, California, USA. ;Leblanc, T.; Table Mountain Facility, NASA-JPL, Wrightwood, California, USA. ;Godin, S.; CNRS Service d’Aeronomie, Paris, France. ;Song, T.; CNRS Service d’Aeronomie, Paris, France. ;Swart, D.; RIVM, Bilthoven, Netherlands. ;Meijer, Y.; RIVM, Bilthoven, Netherlands. ;Bodeker, G.; NIWA, Omakau, Central Otago, New Zealand. ;Connor, B.; NIWA, Omakau, Central Otago, New Zealand. ;Kämpfer, N.; Institute of Applied Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. ;Hocke, K.; Institute of Applied Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. ;Calisesi, Y.; Institute of Applied Physics, University of Bern, Bern, Switzerland. ;Schneider, N.; OASU/L3AB, Universite´ Bordeaux 1, CNRS-INSU, Floirac, France. ;de la Nöe, J.; OASU/L3AB, Universite´ Bordeaux 1, CNRS-INSU, Floirac, France. ;Parrish, A.; Astronomy Department, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, ;Boyd, I.; NIWA-ERI, Ann Arbor, Michigan, USA. ;Brühl, C.; Max-Planck-Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany. ;Steil, B.; Max-Planck-Institute for Chemistry, Mainz, Germany. ;Giorgetta, M.; Max-Planck-Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany. ;Manzini, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Thomason, L.; NASA LARC, Hampton, Virginia, USA. ;Zawodny, J.; NASA LARC, Hampton, Virginia, USA. ;McCormick, M.; Hampton University, Hampton, Virginia, USA. ;Russell, J.; Hampton University, Hampton, Virginia, USA. ;Bharti, P.; NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA. ;Stolarski, R.; NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA. ;Hollandsworth-Frith, S.; NASA GSFC, Greenbelt, Maryland, USA.; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; The long-term evolution of upper stratospheric ozone has been recorded by lidars and microwave radiometers within the ground-based Network for the Detection of Stratospheric Change (NDSC), and by the space-borne Solar Backscatter Ultra-Violet instruments (SBUV), Stratospheric Aerosol and Gas Experiment (SAGE), and Halogen Occultation Experiment (HALOE). Climatological mean differences between these instruments are typically smaller than 5% between 25 and 50 km. Ozone anomaly time series from all instruments, averaged from 35 to 45 km altitude, track each other very well and typically agree within 3 to 5%. SBUV seems to have a slight positive drift against the other instruments. The corresponding 1979 to 1999 period from a transient simulation by the fully coupled MAECHAM4-CHEM chemistry climate model reproduces many features of the observed anomalies. However, in the upper stratosphere the model shows too low ozone values and too negative ozone trends, probably due to an underestimation of methane and a consequent overestimation of ClO. The combination of all observational data sets provides a very consistent picture, with a long-term stability of 2% or better. Upper stratospheric ozone shows three main features: (1) a decline by 10 to 15% since 1980, due to chemical destruction by chlorine; (2) two to three year fluctuations by 5 to 10%, due to the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO); (3) an 11-year oscillation by about 5%, due to the 11-year solar cycle. The 1979 to 1997 ozone trends are larger at the southern mid-latitude station Lauder (45 S), reaching 8%/decade, compared to only about 6%/decade at Table Mountain (35 N), Haute Provence/Bordeaux ( 45 N), and Hohenpeissenberg/Bern( 47 N). At Lauder, Hawaii (20 N), Table Mountain, and Haute Provence, ozone residuals after subtraction of QBO- and solar cycle effects have levelled off in recent years, or are even increasing. Assuming a turning point in January 1997, the change of trend is largest at southern mid-latitude Lauder, +11%/decade, compared to +7%/decade at northern mid-latitudes. This points to a beginning recovery of upper stratospheric ozone. However, chlorine levels are still very high and ozone will remain vulnerable. At this point the most northerly mid-latitude station, Hohenpeissenberg/Bern differs from the other stations, and shows much less clear evidence for a beginning recovery, with a change of trend in 1997 by only +3%/decade. In fact, record low upper stratospheric ozone values were observed at Hohenpeissenberg/Bern, and to a lesser degree at Table Mountain and Haute Provence, in the winters 2003/2004 and 2004/2005.443 249 - PublicationOpen AccessInterannual variation patterns of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature in observations and model simulations(2006)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Steinbrecht, W.; Meteorologisches Observatorium Hohenpeißenberg, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hohenpeißenberg, Germany ;Haßler, B.; Meteorologisches Observatorium Hohenpeißenberg, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hohenpeißenberg, Germany ;Bruhl, C.; Chemie der Atmosph¨are, Max Planck Institut f¨ur Chemie, Mainz, Germany ;Dameris, C.; Institut f¨ur Physik der Atmosph¨are, Deutsches Zentrum f¨ur Luft und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany ;Giorgetta, M.; Atmosph¨are im Erdsystem, Max Planck Institut f¨ur Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany ;Grewe, V.; Institut f¨ur Physik der Atmosph¨are, Deutsches Zentrum f¨ur Luft und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany ;Manzini, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Matthes, S.; Atmosph¨are im Erdsystem, Max Planck Institut f¨ur Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany ;Schnadt, C.; Institut f¨ur Physik der Atmosph¨are, Deutsches Zentrum f¨ur Luft und Raumfahrt, Oberpfaffenhofen, Germany ;Steil, B.; Chemie der Atmosph¨are, Max Planck Institut f¨ur Chemie, Mainz, Germany ;Winkler, P.; Meteorologisches Observatorium Hohenpeißenberg, Deutscher Wetterdienst, Hohenpeißenberg, Germany; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; We report results from a multiple linear regression analysis of long-term total ozone observations (1979 to 2000, by TOMS/SBUV), of temperature reanalyses (1958 to 2000, NCEP), and of two chemistry-climate model simulations (1960 to 1999, by ECHAM4.L39(DLR)/CHEM (=E39/C), and MAECHAM4-CHEM). The model runs are transient experiments, where observed sea surface temperatures, increasing source gas concentrations (CO2, CFCs, CH4, N2O, NOx), 11-year solar cycle, volcanic aerosols and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) are all accounted for. MAECHAM4-CHEM covers the atmosphere from the surface up to 0.01 hPa ( 80 km). For a proper representation of middle atmosphere (MA) dynamics, it includes a parametrization for momentum deposition by dissipating gravity wave spectra. E39/C, on the other hand, has its top layer centered at 10 hPa ( 30 km). It is targeted on processes near the tropopause, and has more levels in this region. Despite some problems, both models generally reproduce the observed amplitudes and much of the observed lowlatitude patterns of the various modes of interannual variability in total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature. In most aspects MAECHAM4-CHEM performs slightly better than E39/C. MAECHAM4-CHEM overestimates the longterm decline of total ozone, whereas E39/C underestimates the decline over Antarctica and at northern mid-latitudes. The true long-term decline in winter and spring above the Correspondence to: W. Steinbrecht (wolfgang.steinbrecht@dwd.de) Arctic may be underestimated by a lack of TOMS/SBUV observations in winter, particularly in the cold 1990s. Main contributions to the observed interannual variations of total ozone and lower stratospheric temperature at 50 hPa come from a linear trend (up to −10 DU/decade at high northern latitudes, up to −40 DU/decade at high southern latitudes, and around −0.7 K/decade over much of the globe), from the intensity of the polar vortices (more than 40 DU, or 8 K peak to peak), the QBO (up to 20 DU, or 2 K peak to peak), and from tropospheric weather (up to 20 DU, or 2 K peak to peak). Smaller variations are related to the 11-year solar cycle (generally less than 15 DU, or 1 K), or to ENSO (up to 10 DU, or 1 K). These observed variations are replicated well in the simulations. Volcanic eruptions have resulted in sporadic changes (up to −30 DU, or +3 K). At low latitudes, patterns are zonally symmetric. At higher latitudes, however, strong, zonally non-symmetric signals are found close to the Aleutian Islands or south of Australia. Such asymmetric features appear in the model runs as well, but often at different longitudes than in the observations. The results point to a key role of the zonally asymmetric Aleutian (or Australian) stratospheric anti-cyclones for interannual variations at high-latitudes, and for coupling between polar vortex strength, QBO, 11-year solar cycle and ENSO.161 123