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Scoccimarro, Enrico
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Scoccimarro, Enrico
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enrico.scoccimarro@ingv.it
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- PublicationOpen AccessThe role of Mediterranean mesoscale eddies on the climate of the Euro-Mediterranean region(2011-04)
; ; ; ; ; ; ;Bellucci, Alessio; CMCC ;Gualdi, Silvio; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Scoccimarro, Enrico; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Sanna, Antonella; CMCC ;Oddo, Paolo; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Navarra, Antonio; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; ; ; ; Within the CIRCE (Climate Change and Impact Research: The Mediterranean Environment) EU Project, substantial efforts were devoted to enhance the representation of the oceanic system in the Mediterranean region. This was achieved by developing coupled general circulation models with ocean components which either explicitly resolve, or simply permit, mesoscale circulation features. The inclusion of the eddy variability tail in the spectrum of the processes resolved by the modelled system represents a particularly relevant step forward with respect to the previous CMIP3 generation of climate models , as these were systematically based on coarse resolution ocean components, leading in turn to an extremely rough representation of the Mediterranean Sea sub-system. In this study the role of mesoscale oceanic features on the air-sea interactions over the Mediterranean region was analysed, in the context of one of the CIRCE ensemble of climate models. To this aim, two different simulations of the 20th Century climate, performed with two distinct configurations of the CMCC coupled general circulation model featuring radically different horizontal resolutions in the Mediterranean Sea domain, were compared. This comparison highlights the implications deriving from the inclusion of energetic ocean mesoscale structures in the variability spectrum of the coupled ocean-atmosphere system and points to the need for high-resolution ocean components in the development of next generation climate model.270 121 - PublicationOpen AccessGlobal mean climate and main patterns of variability in the CMCC-CM2 coupled model(2018-12-13)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Euro‐Mediterranean Centre on Climate Change coupled climate model (CMCC‐CM2) represents the new family of the global coupled climate models developed and used at CMCC. It is based on the atmospheric, land and sea ice components from the Community Earth System Model coupled with the global ocean model Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean. This study documents the model components, the coupling strategy, particularly for the oceanic, atmospheric, and sea ice components, and the overall model ability in reproducing the observed mean climate and main patterns of interannual variability. As a first step toward a more comprehensive, process‐oriented, validation of the model, this work analyzes a 200‐year simulation performed under constant forcing corresponding to present‐day climate conditions. In terms of mean climate, the model is able to realistically reproduce the main patterns of temperature, precipitation, and winds. Specifically, we report improvements in the representation of the sea surface temperature with respect to the previous version of the model. In terms of mean atmospheric circulation features, we notice a realistic simulation of upper tropospheric winds and midtroposphere geopotential eddies. The oceanic heat transport and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation satisfactorily compare with present‐day observations and estimates from global ocean reanalyses. The sea ice patterns and associated seasonal variations are realistically reproduced in both hemispheres, with a better skill in winter. Main weaknesses of the simulated climate are related with the precipitation patterns, specifically in the tropical regions with large dry biases over the Amazon basin. Similarly, the seasonal precipitation associated with the monsoons, mostly over Asia, is weaker than observed. The main patterns of interannual variability in terms of dominant empirical orthogonal functions are faithfully reproduced, mostly in the Northern Hemisphere winter. In the tropics the main teleconnection patterns associated with El Niño–Southern Oscillation and with the Indian Ocean Dipole are also in good agreement with observations.99 164 - PublicationOpen AccessANALYSIS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE ACTIVITY IN A WARMER CLIMATE: RESULTS FROM A HIGH-RESOLUTION COUPLED GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL(2008-06)
; ; ; ;Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Gualdi, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Navarra, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; ; AOGSThis study investigates the possible changes that the greenhouse global warming might generate in the characteristics of the tropical cyclones (TCs). The analysis has been performed using climate scenario simulations carried out with a fully coupled high–resolution global general circulation model. The capability of the model to reproduce a reasonably realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from a simulation of the XX Century with observations. The model appears to be able to simulate tropical cyclone-like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic geographical distribution, seasonal modulation and interannual variability, suggesting that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link the TC occurrence with the large scale circulation. The results from the climate scenarios reveal a substantial general reduction of the TC frequency when the atmospheric CO2 concentration is doubled and quadrupled. The reduction appears particularly evident for the tropical north west Pacific (NWP) and north Atlantic (ATL). In the NWP the weaker TC activity seems to be associated with a reduced amount of convective instabilities. In the ATL region the weaker TC activity seems to be due to both the increased stability of the atmosphere and a stronger vertical wind shear. Despite the generally reduced TC activity, there is evidence of increased rainfall associated with the simulated cyclones. The tropical cyclone-ocean interaction is captured by the model and the impact of the ocean response to the storm forcing is analyzed under different radiative forcing conditions.136 129 - PublicationRestrictedThe influence of the Indian Ocean on the Eastern Mediterranean interannual variability, as simulated by a coupled general circulation model(2010-09)
; ; ; ;Roxy, Mattew; CMCC ;Gualdi, Silvio; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Scoccimarro, Enrico; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; The interannual variability of the teleconnection between the Eastern Mediterranean (EM) and the Indian Ocean is investigated using 20th century simulations conducted with a fully coupled high-resolution global general circu- lation model, and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-40). Comparison with observations, reanalysis, and model simulations shows that, though the model results slightly underestimate the magnitude of the anomalies, they provide a reliable representation of its real space and time va-riability. The model appears to be able to reproduce the observed Eastern Mediterranean climate variability and the associated variability over the Indian Ocean and the Indian subcontinent. Composite analysis of the vertical ve- locity anomalies over the Eastern Mediterranean shows that the subsidence over these regions is increased with the occurrence of positive Indian Ocean Di-pole (IOD) events. It is found that, both in the model and the reanalysis, a positive IOD results in an anomalous meridional overturning circulation between the tropical eastern Indian Ocean and the Indian Subcontinent. This meridional circulation connects an anomalous descent (ascent) branch over the Indian Ocean (Indian subcontinent). The anomalous meridional circulation in turn triggers a rossby wave response to the west of the ascending branch at about 200 hPa, inten-sifying the subsidence over the EM95 23 - PublicationRestrictedThe Tropical Cyclone Climate Model Intercomparison Project(2010)
; ; ; ; ; ;Walsh, K.; School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia ;Lavander, S.; School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia ;Murakami, H.; Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan ;Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Caron, L. P.; CRCMD Network, UQAM, Montreal, Canada; ; ; ; ; ; Elsner, J. B.In this chapter, a review is given of progress to date on an intercomparison project designed to compare and evaluate the ability of climate models to generate tropical cyclones, the Tropical Cyclone climate Model Intercomparison Project(TC-MIP). Like other intercomparison projects, this project aims to evaluate climate models using common metrics in order to make suggestions regarding future development of such models.99 21 - PublicationOpen AccessExtreme events in high resolution CMCC regional and global climate models(2011-09)
; ; ; ; ; ;Scoccimarro, Enrico; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Gualdi, Silvio; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Sanna, Antonella; CMCC ;Bucchignani, Edoardo; CMCC ;Montesarchio, Myriam; ; ; ; Within the framework of the FUME EU project a set of climate projections covering the period 1970-2100 has been performed using a global General Circulation model (CMCC-Med) and a Regional Climate model (CMCC-CLM). Simulation outputs have been post-processed in order to investigate extreme events based on three principal weather parameters: precipitation, surface temperature and 10 metre wind. Using these parameters, several indexes for extreme event characterizations have been computed on daily time basis over 4 seasons. Trends and variability have been computed and examined both for the global and regional model.132 221 - PublicationOpen AccessEXTREME EVENTS AS REPRESENTED BY HIGH RESOLUTION CMCC CLIMATE MODELS AT GLOBAL AND REGIONAL (Euro-Mediterranean) SCALE(2011-10)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Sanna, Antonella; CMCC ;Scoccimarro, Enrico; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Gualdi, Silvio; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Bellucci, Alessio; CMCC ;Montesarchio, Myriam; CMCC ;Bucchignani, Edoardo; CMCC ;Navarra, Antonio; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; ; ; ; ; One of the conclusions of the IPCC Fourth Assessment Report is that there are evidences that climate change affects the frequency, intensity, and length of many extreme events, such as floods, droughts, storms and extreme temperatures. At the same time, gradual and non-linear changes in ecosystems and natural resources further increase the consequences of extreme weather events. Climate extreme events are hard to study and even harder to predict because they are, by definition, rare and obey different statistical laws than averages. The availability of climate simulations (historical + sresA1B scenario) covering the period 1970-2100 from a global Coupled General Circulation Model (70 Km of atmospheric spatial resolution) and a Regional Climate Model (14 Km of spatial resolution) give the possibility to investigate three principal weather fields involved in extreme events conditions such as surface temperature, precipitation and wind velocity. For each of them the computation of several indicators has been done, at global and regional scale, on daily time basis over 4 seasons defined as December-February (DJF), March-May (MAM), June-August (JJA), September-November (SON). These indicators characterize each model grid point over the relative spatial model domain (global/regional). For each index we computed trend maps considering only grid points where the detected trend is statistically significant. Available trend maps are defined over five periods of 30 years: 1971-2000 1981-2010, 2011-2040, 2041-2070, 2071-2100, and two periods of 65 years: 1971-2035 and 2036-2100.346 98 - PublicationOpen AccessHydrologically Induced Karst Deformation: Insights From GPS Measurements in the Adria-Eurasia Plate Boundary Zone(2018)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ; ;We apply a blind source separation algorithm to the ground displacement time series recorded at continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) stations in the European Eastern Alps and Northern Dinarides. As a result, we characterize the temporal and spatial features of several deformation signals. Seasonal displacements are well described by loading effects caused by Earth surface mass redistributions. More interestingly, we highlight a horizontal, nonseasonal, transient deformation signal, with spatially variable amplitudes and directions. The stations affected by this signal reverse the sense of movement with time, implying a sequence of dilatational and compressional deformation that is oriented normal to rock fractures in karst areas. The temporal evolution of this deformation signal is correlated with the history of cumulated precipitations at monthly time scales. This transient horizontal deformation can be explained by pressure changes associated with variable water levels within vertical fractures in the vadose zones of karst systems. The water level changes required to open or close these fractures are consistent with the fluctuations of precipitation and with the dynamics of karst systems782 61 - PublicationOpen AccessExtreme precipitation events over north-western Europe: getting water from the tropicsOur capability to adapt to extreme precipitation events is linked to our skill in predicting their magnitude and timing. Synoptic features (such as Atmospheric Rivers) developing over the North Atlantic Ocean are known as the source of the majority of water vapour transport into European mid-latitudes, and are associated with episodes of heavy and prolonged rainfall over UK and north western Europe. Thus, a better understanding of the North Atlantic atmospheric conditions prior the occurrence of extreme precipitation events over Europe could help in improving our capability to predict them. We build on atmospheric re-analyses at high spatial resolution, on a daily time scale, to highlight the anomalous path of the vertically integrated water content, transferring water from the western tropical North Atlantic to high latitudes and fuelling the storms developing in the North Atlantic sector, bound to affect Europe as responsible for the most intense precipitation events. The systematic link between anomalous north-eastward transport of vertically integrated water (precipitable water) from the western North Atlantic and anomalously high pressure patterns in the central North Atlantic, developing 5 days prior the extreme precipitation occurrence, suggest the central North Atlantic surface pressure as a potential precursor of extreme precipitation events.
97 56 - PublicationOpen AccessTropical Cyclones -‐ Ocean feedbacks: Effects on the Ocean Heat Transport as simulated by a High Resolution Coupled General Circulation Mode(2011-04)
; ;Scoccimarro, Enrico; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, ItaliaTropical cyclones (TCs) activity and their relationship with the Northern hemispheric Ocean Heat Transport (OHT) is investigated. The analysis has been performed using 20C3M (20th Century) and A1B (21st Century) IPCC scenario climate simulations obtained running a state-of-the-art atmosphere-ocean-seaice coupled global model, with high-resolution in the atmosphere. The capability of the model to reproduce a realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from the simulation of the 20th Century with observations. The model is able to simulate tropical cyclone-like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic structure, geographical distribution and interannual variability, indicating that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link the TC activity with the large scale circulation. The TC-induced ocean cooling is well represented and the TCs activity increases significantly the poleward OHT out of the tropics, but also increases the heat transport into the deep tropics. This effect, investigated looking at the 100 most intense Northern hemisphere TCs, is strongly correlated to the TC-induced momentum flux at the surface of the ocean: the winds associated to the TCs significantly weaken the Trade Winds in the 5-18oN latitude belt and reinforce them in the 18-30oN band. TCs frequency and intensity appear to be substantially stationary through the whole 1950- 2069 period. Also the effect of the TCs induced OHT (TCiOHT) does not significantly change during the simulated period.82 377