Options
Scoccimarro, Enrico
Loading...
Preferred name
Scoccimarro, Enrico
Email
enrico.scoccimarro@ingv.it
Staff
staff
ORCID
64 results
Now showing 1 - 10 of 64
- PublicationOpen AccessCMCC-SXF025: A High-Resolution Coupled Atmosphere Ocean General Circulation Climate Model(2007-04)
; ;Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia254 130 - PublicationOpen AccessClimate change projection in the Mediterranean Region as obtained from a global AOGCM coupled with an interactive high-resolution model of the Mediterranean Sea(2010-09)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Gualdi, Silvio; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Scoccimarro, Enrico; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Bellucci, Alessio; CMCC ;Oddo, Paolo; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Sanna, Antonella; CMCC ;Manzini, Elisa; CMCC ;Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; CMCC ;Vichi, Marcello; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Navarra, Antonio; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; In this work we present and discuss the results obtained from a set of present and future climate simulations performed with a high-resolution model able to represent the dynamics of the Mediterranean Sea. The ability of the model to reproduce the basic features of the observed climate in the Mediterranean region and the beneficial effects of both atmospheric improved resolution and interactive Mediterranean Sea are assessed. In particular, the major characteristics of the variability in the Mediterranean basin and its connection with the large-scale circulation are investigated. Furthermore, the mechanisms through which global warming might affect the regional features of the climate are explored, focusing especially on the characteristics of the hydrological cycle. The model used is the CMCC-MED model, developed under the framework of the EU CIRCE Project (Climate Change and Impact Research: the Mediterranean Environment), which provides, for the first time, the possibility to accurately assess the role and feedbacks of the Mediterranean Sea in the global climate system. CMCC-MED, in fact, is a global coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model (AOGCM) coupled with a high-resolution model of the Mediterranean Sea. The atmospheric model component (ECHAM-5) has a horizontal resolution of about 80 Km, the global ocean model (OPA8.2) has horizontal resolution of about 2◦ with an equatorial refinement (0.5◦) and the Mediterranean Sea model (NEMO in the MFS implementation) has horizontal resolution of 1/16◦ (∼7 Km) and 72 vertical levels. The communication between the atmospheric model and the ocean models is performed through the OASIS3 coupler, and the exchange of SST, surface momentum, heat, and water fluxes occurs approximately every 2 hours. The global ocean-Mediterranean connection occurs through the exchange of dynamical and tracer fields via simple input/output operations. In particular, horizontal velocities, tracers and sea-level are transferred from the global ocean to the Mediterranean model through the open boundaries in the Atlantic box. Similarly, vertical profiles of temperature, salinity and horizontal velocities at Gibraltar Strait are transferred from the regional Mediterranean model to the global ocean. The ocean-to-ocean exchange occurs with a daily frequency, with the exchanged variables being averaged over the daily time-window.530 156 - PublicationOpen AccessDecadal climate predictions with a coupled OAGCM initialized with oceanic reanalyses(2013-03)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Bellucci, A.; Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, I-40127 Bologna, Italy ;Gualdi, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Masina, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Storto, A.; Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, Bologna, Italy ;Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Cagnazzo, C.; CNR, Rome, Italy ;Fogli, P.G.; Ctr Euromediterraneo Cambiamenti Climat, I-40127 Bologna, Italy ;Manzini, E.; Max Planck Inst Meteorol, D-20146 Hamburg, Germany ;Navarra, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; We investigate the effects of realistic oceanic initial conditions on a set of decadal climate predictions performed with a state-of-the-art coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model. The decadal predictions are performed in both retrospective (hindcast) and forecast modes. Specifically, the full set of prediction experiments consists of 3-member ensembles of 30-year simulations, starting at 5-year intervals from 1960 to 2005, using historical radiative forcing conditions for the 1960-2005 period, followed by RCP4.5 scenario settings for the 2006-2035 period. The ocean initial states are provided by ocean reanalyses differing by assimilation methods and assimilated data, but obtained with the same ocean model. The use of alternative ocean reanalyses yields the required perturbation of the full three-dimensional ocean state aimed at generating the ensemble members spread. A full-value initialization technique is adopted. The predictive skill of the system appears to be driven to large extent by trends in the radiative forcing. However, after detrending, a residual skill over specific regions of the ocean emerges in the near-term. Specifically, natural fluctuations in the North Atlantic sea-surface temperature (SST) associated with large-scale multi-decadal variability modes are predictable in the 2-5 year range. This is consistent with significant predictive skill found in the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation over a similar timescale. The dependency of forecast skill on ocean initialization is analysed, revealing a strong impact of details of ocean data assimilation products on the system predictive skill. This points to the need of reducing the large uncertainties that currently affect global ocean reanalyses, in the perspective of providing reliable near-term climate predictions.340 189 - PublicationOpen AccessPresent and future climate simulation of Mediterranean cyclones with a high resolution AOGCMs(2010-09)
; ; ; ; ;Sanna, Antonella; CMCC ;Bellucci, Alessio; CMCC ;Oddo, Paolo; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Scoccimarro, Enrico; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; ; Preliminary results are presented of a study aiming at producing a climatology of Mediterranean cyclones making use of a global AOGCM coupled with an interactive high-resolution model of the Mediterranean Sea. Cyclones are analyzed with both the lagrangian and the eulerian approaches, applied to three different simulations: a control one (present climate conditions) and two IPCC scenarios (A1B and A2). Both the North Atlantic stormtrack and cyclone track and genesis density statistics from the control dataset are analyzed compared to ERA40 reanalysis. Cyclones are grouped according to their genesis location and the corresponding lysis regions are identified. Partic- ular attention is devoted to the effects of sea-surface fields (temperature gradients and heat fluxes). The wet season (October–March) is examined in relation to the decrease in the intensity of cyclogenesis events in the region and trends are investigated.122 154 - PublicationRestrictedChanges in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming: Results from a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model.(2008-10-15)
; ; ; ;Gualdi, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Navarra, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; This study investigates the possible changes that greenhouse global warming might generate in the characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs). The analysis has been performed using scenario climate simulations carried out with a fully coupled high-resolution global general circulation model. The capability of the model to reproduce a reasonably realistic TC climatology has been assessed by comparing the model results from a simulation of the twentieth century with observations. The model appears to be able to simulate tropical cyclone–like vortices with many features similar to the observed TCs. The simulated TC activity exhibits realistic geographical distribution, seasonal modulation, and interannual variability, suggesting that the model is able to reproduce the major basic mechanisms that link TC occurrence with large-scale circulation. The results from the climate scenarios reveal a substantial general reduction of TC frequency when the atmospheric CO2 concentration is doubled and quadrupled. The reduction appears particularly evident for the tropical western North Pacific (WNP) and North Atlantic (ATL). In the NWP the weaker TC activity seems to be associated with reduced convective instabilities. In the ATL region the weaker TC activity seems to be due to both the increased stability of the atmosphere and a stronger vertical wind shear. Despite the generally reduced TC activity, there is evidence of increased rainfall associated with the simulated cyclones. Finally, the action of the TCs remains well confined to the tropical region and the peak of TC number remains equatorward of 20° latitude in both hemispheres, notwithstanding the overall warming of the tropical upper ocean and the expansion poleward of warm SSTs.184 29 - PublicationOpen AccessINGV-SXG: A Coupled Atmosphere Ocean Sea-Ice General Circulation Climate Model.(2007-02)
; ;Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia114 290 - PublicationOpen AccessExtreme events in high resolution CMCC regional and global climate models(2011-09)
; ; ; ; ; ;Scoccimarro, Enrico; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Gualdi, Silvio; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Sanna, Antonella; CMCC ;Bucchignani, Edoardo; CMCC ;Montesarchio, Myriam; ; ; ; Within the framework of the FUME EU project a set of climate projections covering the period 1970-2100 has been performed using a global General Circulation model (CMCC-Med) and a Regional Climate model (CMCC-CLM). Simulation outputs have been post-processed in order to investigate extreme events based on three principal weather parameters: precipitation, surface temperature and 10 metre wind. Using these parameters, several indexes for extreme event characterizations have been computed on daily time basis over 4 seasons. Trends and variability have been computed and examined both for the global and regional model.132 221 - PublicationRestrictedThe Tropical Cyclone Climate Model Intercomparison Project(2010)
; ; ; ; ; ;Walsh, K.; School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia ;Lavander, S.; School of Earth Sciences, University of Melbourne, Australia ;Murakami, H.; Meteorological Research Institute, Tsukuba, Ibaraki, Japan ;Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Caron, L. P.; CRCMD Network, UQAM, Montreal, Canada; ; ; ; ; ; Elsner, J. B.In this chapter, a review is given of progress to date on an intercomparison project designed to compare and evaluate the ability of climate models to generate tropical cyclones, the Tropical Cyclone climate Model Intercomparison Project(TC-MIP). Like other intercomparison projects, this project aims to evaluate climate models using common metrics in order to make suggestions regarding future development of such models.99 21 - PublicationOpen AccessIntense precipitation events associated with landfalling tropical cyclones in response to a warmer climate and increased CO2(2014)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Gualdi, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Villarini, G.; University of IOWA ;Vecchi, G. A.; GFDL ;Zhao, M.; GFDL ;Walsh, K.; University of Melbourne ;Navarra, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; ; ; ; ; In this work the authors investigate possible changes in the intensity of rainfall events associated 28 with tropical cyclones (TCs) under idealized forcing scenarios, including a uniformly warmer climate, with a special focus on landfalling storms. A new set of experiments designed within the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group allows disentangling the relative role of changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide from that played by sea surface temperature (SST) in changing the amount of precipitation associated with TCs in a warmer world. Compared to the present day simulation, we found an increase in TC precipitation under the scenarios involving SST increases. On the other hand, in a CO2 doubling-only scenario, the changes in TC rainfall are small and we found that, on average, TC rainfall tends to decrease compared to the present day climate. The results of this study highlight the contribution of landfalling TCs to the projected increase in the precipitation changes affecting the tropical coastal regions.248 230 - PublicationOpen AccessEFFECTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONES ON OCEAN HEAT TRANSPORT AS SIMULATED BY A HIGH RESOLUTION COUPLED GENERAL CIRCULATION MODEL(2010-12)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Scoccimarro, Enrico; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Gualdi, Silvio; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Bellucci, Alessio; CMCC ;Sanna, Antonella; CMCC ;Fogli, Pier Giuseppe; CMCC ;Manzini, Elisa; CMCC ;Vichi, Marcello; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Oddo, Paolo; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Navarra, Antonio; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; In this study the interplay between Tropical Cyclones (TCs) and the Northern hemispheric Ocean Heat Transport (OHT) is investigated. In particular, results from a numerical simulation of the 20th and 21st Century climate, following the Intergovernmental Panel for Climate Change (IPCC) 20C3M and A1B scenario protocols respectively have been analyzed. The numerical simulations have been performed using a state-of-the-art global atmosphere-ocean-sea-ice coupled general circulation model - CGCM (CMCC-MED, Gualdi et al. 2010, Scoccimarro et al. 2010) with relatively high-resolution (T159) in the atmosphere. The model is an evolution of the INGV-SXG (Gualdi et al. 2008, Bellucci et al. 2008) and the ECHAM-OPA-LIM (Fogli et al. 2009, Vichi et al. 2010) The simulated TCs exhibit realistic structure, geographical distribution (Fig.2) and interannual variability, indicating that the model is able to capture the basic mechanisms linking the TC activity with the large scale circulation. The cooling of the surface ocean observed in correspondence of the TCs is well simulated by the model (Fig.3). TC activity is shown to significantly affect the poleward OHT out of the tropics, and the heat transport into the deep tropics (Fig.4). This effect, investigated by looking at the 100 most intense Northern Hemisphere TCs, is strongly correlated with the TC-induced momentum flux at the ocean surface (Fig.7). TCs frequency and intensity appear to be substantially stationary through the whole 1950-2069 simulated period as well as the effect of the TCs on the meridional OHT.428 200