Options
Carril, A. F.
Loading...
Preferred name
Carril, A. F.
6 results
Now showing 1 - 6 of 6
- PublicationRestrictedPrecipitation extremes over La Plata Basin –Review and new results from observations and climate simulations(2015)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Cavalcanti, I.; Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (CPTEC/INPE), Brazil ;Carril, A.; CIMA/CONICET-UBA, Argentina ;Penalba, O.; FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina ;Grimm, A.; Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, Brazil ;Menendez, C.; FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina ;Sanchez, E.; University of Castilla-La Mancha, Spain ;Cherchi, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Sorrenson, A.; CIMA/CONICET-UBA, Argentina ;Robledo, F.; FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina ;Rivera, J.; FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina ;Pantano, V.; FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina ;Bettolli, L. M.; FCEN, UBA, Buenos Aires, Argentina ;Zaninelli, P.; CIMA/CONICET-UBA, Argentina ;Zamboni, L.; Argonne National Laboratory, MCS Division, USA ;Tedeschi, R.; Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (CPTEC/INPE), Brazil ;Dominguez, M.; University of Castilla-La Mancha, Spain ;Ruscica, R.; CIMA/CONICET-UBA, Argentina ;Flach, R.; Universidade Federal do Paraná, Curitiba, Brazil; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Monthly and daily precipitation extremes over La Plata Basin (LPB) are analyzed in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Project. A review of the studies developed during the project and results of additional research are presented and discussed. Specific aspects of analysis are focused on large-scale versus local processes impacts on the intensity and frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB, and on the assessment of specific wet and dry spell indices and their changed characteristics in future climate scenarios. The analysis is shown for both available observations of precipitation in the region and ad-hoc global and regional models experiments. The Pacific, Indian and Atlantic Oceans can all impact precipitation intensity and frequency over LPB. In particular, considering the Pacific sector, different types of ENSO events (i.e. canonical vs Modoki or East vs Central) have different influences. Moreover, model projections indicate an increase in the frequency of precipitation extremes over LPB during El Niño and La Ninã events in future climate. Local forcings can also be important for precipitation extremes. Here, the feedbacks between soil moisture and extreme precipitation in LPB are discussed based on hydric conditions in the region and model sensitivity experiments. Concerning droughts, it was found that they were more frequent in the western than in the eastern sector of LPB during the period of 1962–2008. On the other hand, observations and model experiments agree in that the monthly wet extremes were more frequent than the dry extremes in the northern and southern LPB sectors during the period 1979–2001, with higher frequency in the south.116 24 - PublicationRestrictedOcean, sea-ice, atmosphere oscillations in the Southern Ocean as simulated by the SINTEX coupled model(2004-05-29)
; ; ; ;Carril, A. F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Navarra, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Masina, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;; 1This study evaluates the Antarctic Circumpolar Wave (ACW) as simulated by the SINTEX coupled model. We found evidence that sea-ice treatment plays a crucial role on simulating the ACW. In particular, SST anomalies at interannual time scales describe a propagating ACW-like pattern when a dynamic thermodynamic sea-ice model is coupled with the ocean, but when sea-ice is relaxed to climatology, anomalies occur as zonally symmetric patterns that do not propagate in longitude. Moreover, from the experiment with an active sea-ice component we saw that ACW-like oscillations are strongly modulated by low frequency variability. Our result adds some extra confidence to previous studies based on relatively short series of observed data.377 111 - PublicationRestrictedInterannual to Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic: A Multi-Model-Ensemble Study(2006)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Collins, M.; Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom ;Botzet, M.; Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany ;Carril, A. F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Drange, H.; Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway ;Jouzeau, A.; CERFACS, Toulouse, France ;Latif, M.; Max-Planck-Institut für Meterologie, Hamburg, and Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften, Kiel, Germany ;Masina, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Otteraa, O. H.; Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway ;Pohlmann, H.; Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada ;Sorteberg, A.; Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway ;Sutton, R.; Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, Reading, United Kingdom ;Terray, L.; CERFACS, Toulouse, France; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Ensemble experiments are performed with five coupled atmosphere–ocean models to investigate the potential for initial-value climate forecasts on interannual to decadal time scales. Experiments are started from similar model-generated initial states, and common diagnostics of predictability are used. We find that variations in the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, a more consistent picture of the surface temperature impact of decadal variations in the MOC is now apparent, and variations of surface air temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean are also potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, albeit with potential skill levels that are less than those seen for MOC variations. This intercomparison represents a step forward in assessing the robustness of model estimates of potential skill and is a prerequisite for the development of any operational forecasting system.313 62 - PublicationRestrictedExtreme events in the La Plata basin: a retrospective analysis of what we have learned during CLARIS-LPB project(2016)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;; ;Extreme climate events over the La Plata basin (LPB) can produce significant impacts due to the importance of the regional agriculture and hydroelectric power production for the local economy. Progress on describing, projecting and understanding extremes in LPB, in the framework of the CLARIS-LPB Europe-South America Network for Climate Change Assessment and Impact Studies in La Plata Basin Project, are reviewed. The paper is based on recent studies and publications, as well as some new diagnostics as indicators of works in progress, and can be considered as an update for the LPB region of previous reviews by Cavalcanti et al. (2015; J Hydrol 523:211–230) and Rusticucci (2012; Atmos Res 106:1–17. Despite the significant advances on regional extremes, some gaps have been identified, and many challenges remain. Much of the recent progress considers temperature and precipitation extremes on timescales varying from synoptic to long-term variability and climate change, essential for impact and vulnerability assessments. Research lines on extremes requiring further efforts include the relative roles of local versus remote forcings, the impact of land use and land management changes, the specific role of soil moisture and land-atmosphere feedbacks as catalysts for heat waves, the impact of the local inhomogeneities in soil moisture, feedback and uncertainties in projections of extremes, as well as seasonal forecast and climate change attribution studies. We suggest combining intensive monitoring and modelling to address these issues.58 2 - ProductOpen AccessMATLAB and Practical Applications on Climate Variability Studies(2006-02)
; ; ;Scoccimarro, E.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Carril, A. F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia; Main objective of the course (5 sessions) is the transfer of know-how in practical applications and management of statistical tools commonly used to explore meteorological time series, using MATLAB, focusing on applications to study issues related with the climate variability and climate change.4280 20471 - PublicationOpen AccessHeatwaves in Europe: areas of homogeneous variability and links with the regional to large-scale atmospheric and SSTs anomalies(2007-06-28)
; ; ; ; ;Carril, A. F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Gualdi, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Cherchi, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Navarra, A.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;; ; This work presents a methodology to study the interannual variability associated with summertime months in which extremely hot temperatures are frequent. Daily time series of maximum and minimum temperature fields (T max and T min, respectively) are used to define indexes of extreme months based on the number of days crossing thresholds. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to the monthly indexes. EOF loadings give information about the geographical areas where the number of days per month with extreme temperatures has the largest variability. Correlations between the EOF principal components and the time series of other fields allow plotting maps highlighting the anomalies in the large scale circulation and in the SSTs that are associated with the occurrence of extreme events. The methodology is used to construct the “climatology” of the extremely hot summertime months over Europe. In terms of both interannual and intraseasonal variability, there are three regions in which the frequency of the extremely hot days per month homogeneously varies: north-west Europe, Euro-Mediterranean and Eurasia region. Although extremes over those regions occur during the whole summer (June to August), the anomalous climatic conditions associated with frequent heatwaves present some intraseasonal variability. Extreme climate events over the north-west Europe and Eurasia are typically related to the occurrence of blocking situations. The intraseasonal variability of those patterns is related to the amplitude of the blocking, the relative location of the action centre and the wavetrain of anomalies downstream or upstream of the blocking. During June and July, blocking situations which give extremely hot climate conditions over north-west Europe are also associated with cold conditions over the eastern Mediterranean sector. The Euro-Mediterranean region is a transition area in which extratropical and tropical systems compete, influencing the occurrence of climate events: blockings tend to be related to extremely hot months during June while baroclinic anomalies dominate the variability of the climate events in July and August. We highlight that our method could be easily applied to other regions of the world, to other fields as well as to model outputs to assess, e.g. the potential change of extreme climate events in a warmer climate.154 2975