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Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, Department of Meteorology,University of Reading, U.K.
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- PublicationRestrictedInterannual to Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic: A Multi-Model-Ensemble Study(2006)
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;Collins, M.; Hadley Centre, Met Office, Exeter, United Kingdom ;Botzet, M.; Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie, Hamburg, Germany ;Carril, A. F.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Drange, H.; Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway ;Jouzeau, A.; CERFACS, Toulouse, France ;Latif, M.; Max-Planck-Institut für Meterologie, Hamburg, and Leibniz-Institut für Meereswissenschaften, Kiel, Germany ;Masina, S.; Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, Sezione Bologna, Bologna, Italia ;Otteraa, O. H.; Nansen Environmental and Remote Sensing Center, and Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway ;Pohlmann, H.; Department of Oceanography, Dalhousie University, Halifax, Nova Scotia, Canada ;Sorteberg, A.; Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen, Norway ;Sutton, R.; Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, Reading, United Kingdom ;Terray, L.; CERFACS, Toulouse, France; ; ;; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; Ensemble experiments are performed with five coupled atmosphere–ocean models to investigate the potential for initial-value climate forecasts on interannual to decadal time scales. Experiments are started from similar model-generated initial states, and common diagnostics of predictability are used. We find that variations in the ocean meridional overturning circulation (MOC) are potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, a more consistent picture of the surface temperature impact of decadal variations in the MOC is now apparent, and variations of surface air temperatures in the North Atlantic Ocean are also potentially predictable on interannual to decadal time scales, albeit with potential skill levels that are less than those seen for MOC variations. This intercomparison represents a step forward in assessing the robustness of model estimates of potential skill and is a prerequisite for the development of any operational forecasting system.313 62 - PublicationOpen AccessVariability of Atlantic Ocean heat transport and its effects on the atmosphere(2003)
; ; ;Dong, B.; Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, Department of Meteorology,University of Reading, U.K. ;Sutton, R. T.; Centre for Global Atmospheric Modelling, Department of Meteorology,University of Reading, U.K.; The variability of the Atlantic meridional Ocean Heat Transport (OHT) has been diagnosed from a simulation of a coupled ocean-atmosphere general circulation model, and the mechanisms responsible for this variability have been elucidated. It has been demonstrated that the interannual variability in Atlantic OHT is dominated by windstress-driven Ekman fluctuations. In contrast, the decadal and multidecadal variability is associated with the fluctuations of the Thermohaline Circulation (THC), driven by the fluctuations in deep convection over the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian (GIN) Sea. The fluctuations of OHT induce Ocean Heat Content (OHC), and Sea Surface Temperature (SST) anomalies over the tropical and subtropical North Atlantic. The SST anomalies, in turn, have an impact on the atmosphere. The lead-lag relationships between the fluctuations of THC-related OHT and those of OHC and SST raise the possibility that a knowledge of OHT fluctuations could be used to predict variations in Atlantic Sea surface temperatures, and perhaps aspects of climate, several years in advance. A comparison of results from a second, independent, coupled model simulation is also presented, and similar conclusions reached.248 342