PROBABILISTIC PROCEDURE TO ESTIMATE THE MACROSEISMIC INTENSITY ATTENUATION IN THE ITALIAN VOLCANIC DISTRICTS

Abstract

In Italian volcanic areas, we apply a probabilistic procedure for Macroseismic Intensity Attenuation estimates. The procedure, following the Bayesian approach, allows to exploit additional information on historical earthquakes. The method, given the epicentral intensity and the site epicenter distance, begins from selected earthquakes intensity data points and ends at the assessment of the intensity (Is) probability distribution at a site. Our probabilistic method provides a probability function matrix that can be directly applied for the computation of probabilistic seismic hazard at the site.