Please use this identifier to cite or link to this item: http://hdl.handle.net/2122/1633
AuthorsDi Bello, G.* 
Lapenna, V.* 
Macchiato, M.* 
Satriano, C.* 
Serio, C.* 
Tramutoli, V.* 
TitleParametric time series analysis of geoelectrical signals: an application to earthquake forecasting in Southern Italy
Issue DateJan-1996
Series/Report no.39/1
URIhttp://hdl.handle.net/2122/1633
Keywordstime series
geoelectrical signals
earthquake prediction
Subject Classification04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.04. Magnetic and electrical methods 
04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.07. Instruments and techniques 
AbstractAn autoregressive model was selected to describe geoelectrical time series. An objective technique was subsequently applied to analyze and discriminate values above (below) an a priorifixed threshold possibly related to seismic events. A complete check of the model and the main guidelines to estimate the occurrence probability of extreme events are reported. A first application of the proposed technique is discussed through the analysis of the experimental data recorded by an automatic station located in Tito, a small town on the Apennine chain in Southern Italy. This region was hit by the November 1980 Irpinia-Basilicata earthquake and it is one of most active areas of the Mediterranean region. After a preliminary filtering procedure to reduce the influence of external parameters (i.e. the meteo-climatic effects), it was demonstrated that the geoelectrical residual time series are well described by means of a second order autoregressive model. Our findings outline a statistical methodology to evaluate the efficiency of electrical seismic precursors.
Appears in Collections:Annals of Geophysics

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