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Authors: Di Bello, G.*
Lapenna, V.*
Macchiato, M.*
Satriano, C.*
Serio, C.*
Tramutoli, V.*
Title: Parametric time series analysis of geoelectrical signals: an application to earthquake forecasting in Southern Italy
Issue Date: Jan-1996
Series/Report no.: 39/1
Keywords: time series
geoelectrical signals
earthquake prediction
Abstract: An autoregressive model was selected to describe geoelectrical time series. An objective technique was subsequently applied to analyze and discriminate values above (below) an a priorifixed threshold possibly related to seismic events. A complete check of the model and the main guidelines to estimate the occurrence probability of extreme events are reported. A first application of the proposed technique is discussed through the analysis of the experimental data recorded by an automatic station located in Tito, a small town on the Apennine chain in Southern Italy. This region was hit by the November 1980 Irpinia-Basilicata earthquake and it is one of most active areas of the Mediterranean region. After a preliminary filtering procedure to reduce the influence of external parameters (i.e. the meteo-climatic effects), it was demonstrated that the geoelectrical residual time series are well described by means of a second order autoregressive model. Our findings outline a statistical methodology to evaluate the efficiency of electrical seismic precursors.
Appears in Collections:04.02.07. Instruments and techniques
04.02.04. Magnetic and electrical methods
Annals of Geophysics

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