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http://hdl.handle.net/2122/1633
Authors: | Di Bello, G.* Lapenna, V.* Macchiato, M.* Satriano, C.* Serio, C.* Tramutoli, V.* |
Title: | Parametric time series analysis of geoelectrical signals: an application to earthquake forecasting in Southern Italy | Issue Date: | Jan-1996 | Series/Report no.: | 1/39 (1996) | URI: | http://hdl.handle.net/2122/1633 | Keywords: | time series geoelectrical signals earthquake prediction |
Subject Classification: | 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.04. Magnetic and electrical methods 04. Solid Earth::04.02. Exploration geophysics::04.02.07. Instruments and techniques |
Abstract: | An autoregressive model was selected to describe geoelectrical time series. An objective technique was subsequently applied to analyze and discriminate values above (below) an a priorifixed threshold possibly related to seismic events. A complete check of the model and the main guidelines to estimate the occurrence probability of extreme events are reported. A first application of the proposed technique is discussed through the analysis of the experimental data recorded by an automatic station located in Tito, a small town on the Apennine chain in Southern Italy. This region was hit by the November 1980 Irpinia-Basilicata earthquake and it is one of most active areas of the Mediterranean region. After a preliminary filtering procedure to reduce the influence of external parameters (i.e. the meteo-climatic effects), it was demonstrated that the geoelectrical residual time series are well described by means of a second order autoregressive model. Our findings outline a statistical methodology to evaluate the efficiency of electrical seismic precursors. |
Appears in Collections: | Annals of Geophysics |
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02 di bello.pdf | 2.51 MB | Adobe PDF | View/Open |
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