Can effects of a seismic disaster be assessed by demography? A multidisciplinary approach for Italian earthquakes

Abstract

We investigated the demographic impact of past earthquakes on local communities, coupling damage, assessed by MCS Macroseismic intensities, with long term demographic parameters. We started with two case studies, both from Southern Italy and occurring several decades ago. The results of this work depict a general framework of demographic distress in the areas most affected by the seismic events, that might have enhanced the impact of earthquakes. It also points out how demographic evolution across seismic disasters may follow not easily predictable dynamics. This approach to the study of the earthquakes’ effects can be easily extended to other cases, given the availability of detailed territorial statistical data in a sufficiently long period of time.