Tsunamis: Bayesian Probabilistic Hazard Analysis

Abstract

Tsunamis are low-frequency high-consequences major natural threats, rare events devastating vast coastal regions near and far from their generation areas. They may be caused by coseismic seafloor motions, subaerial and submarine mass movements, volcanic activities (like explosions, pyroclastic flows and caldera collapses), meteorological phenomena and meteorite ocean impacts. The probability of tsunami occurrence and/or impact on a given coast may be treated formally by combining calculations based on empirical observations and on models; this probability can be updated in light of new/independent information. This is the general concept of the Bayesian method applied to tsunami probabilistic hazard analysis, which also provides a direct quantification of forecast uncertainties. This entry presents a critical overview of Bayesian procedures with a primary focus on their appropriate and relevant applicability to tsunami hazard analyses.