Nocentini, Marco

Nowadays, modeling of tephra fallout hazard is coupled with probabilistic analysis that takes into account the natural variability of the volcanic phenomena in terms of eruption probability, eruption sizes, vent position, and meteorological conditions. In this framework, we present a prototypal methodology to carry out the long-term tephra fallout hazard assessment in southern Italy from the active Neapolitan volcanoes: Somma–Vesuvius, Campi Flegrei, and Ischia. The FALL3D model (v.8.0) has been used to run thousands of numerical simulations (1500 per eruption size class), considering the ECMWF ERA5 meteorological dataset over the last 30 years. The output in terms of tephra ground load has been processed within a new workflow for large-scale, high resolution volcanic hazard assessment, relying on a Bayesian procedure, in order to provide the mean annual frequency with which the tephra load at the ground exceeds given critical thresholds at a target site within a 50-year exposure time. Our results are expressed in terms of absolute mean hazard maps considering different levels of aggregation, from the impact of each volcanic source and eruption size class to the quantification of the total hazard. This work provides for the first time, a multi-volcano probabilistic hazard assessment posed by tephra fallout, comparable with those used for seismic phenomena and other natural disasters. This methodology can be applied to any other volcanic areas or over different exposure times, allowing researchers to account for the eruptive history of the target volcanoes that, when available, could include the occurrence of less frequent large eruptions, representing critical elements for risk evaluations.

The Castelnuovo village is placed on a small NW-SE trending ridge, approximately 60 m higher than the valley floor, occupying a portion of the larger continental L'Aquila Basin (Central Italy). During the April 6, 2009 L'Aquila earthquake (Mw 6.3), the village suffered heavy damage. Several studies investigated the local seismic amplification of the Castelnuovo area employing geotechnical, geophysical, and geological surveys, together with 1D, 2D and 3D numerical models. However, all these studies relied on shallow geotechnical and geophysical surveys, which do not reach the engineering bedrock and do not constrain the presence of an impedance contrast at depth. To date, no detailed study has been carried out to assess the depth of the engineering bedrock. In this work, we fill this gap by executing two deep boreholes reaching the engineering bedrock, tied with an extensive campaign of microtremor measurements all over the Castelnuovo ridge and the surrounding plain. The interpretation of such new data, together with analytical, numerical, and geostatistical techniques, demonstrates that local seismic amplification is linked to a strong impedance contrast at more than 200-m depth beneath the Castelnuovo village associated with the lithological transition between clayey silts and breccias. Such results differ from those provided by previous studies, where such impedance contrast was considered shallower, and represent a milestone for assessing the local seismic hazard of the area.

We compare the results of one-dimensional (1-D) and two-dimensional (2-D) modeling of the up-to-date geological section of downtown L'Aquila. The section transects a 300-m-deep Quaternary graben assumed as a “deep basin.” It is placed in the southern zone of downtown L'Aquila and is mainly filled up by silt and clay. The northern zone of downtown L'Aquila is conversely characterized by stiff rock (breccia superposed onto limestone). The study's aim is to validate this upgraded subsoil model and to investigate possible 2-D seismic effects. Considering both the experimental and simulated data, all the sites exhibit a clear resonance frequency (F0:0.4–0.6 Hz), and its amplitude (A0) decreases northward. The linear modeling is in good agreement with experimental data, confirming the subsoil model. In the southern zone, the A0 of the 2-D transfer function is higher than the A0 of the 1-D transfer function, which can be attributed to a bidimensional deep basin effect.